Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.AVIATION...
TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA TERMINALS THIS
PD. ADDITIONALLY...MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE...AND ALSO IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE S OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MORE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF I-30 IN
EXTREME NE TX/SW AR. SVR WATCH 262 HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE
HOWARD AND SEVIER COUNTIES IN AR PER COORDINATION WITH SPC.
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KOSA TO KELD.
SEVERAL OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...ONE OF THEM
VERY CLOSE TO THE STALLED FRONT. MCV MOVING OVER THE CWA PROVIDED
JUST ENOUGH ASCENT TO OVERCOME WHAT LITTLE CINH WAS REMAINING TO
INITIATE CONVECTION FROM SRN AR SWD TO TOLEDO BEND. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS.
TEMPS HAVE ALSO WARMED INTO THE LOWER 90S S OF I-20 WHICH HAS
HELPED TO YIELD CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG.
THUS...PARAMETERS ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH
THE EVENING HRS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE MCV OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LVL SHEAR MAY BE
LOCALLY ENHANCED.

STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL EXIST IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A MCS.
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SEWD INTO NW COLORADO WILL AMPLIFY
OVER NRN OK BY MONDAY MORNING. INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
THIS TROUGH SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
POSSIBILITY...MAINLY WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AND A STRONGER PACIFIC COLD FRONT AT THE SFC BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

PRECIP SHOULD END FROM W TO E TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. SUBSIDENCE FROM A SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN
MX SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
IS TYPICALLY SUPPORTIVE OF PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
INDEED...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SUCH A PATTERN DEVELOPING
BY NEXT THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS FOR NOW. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  86  71  86  68 /  60  60  60  40  20
MLU  72  86  72  86  67 /  60  50  60  60  30
DEQ  68  79  63  82  62 /  80  80  60  30  20
TXK  70  82  66  83  64 /  60  80  60  40  20
ELD  70  84  69  84  64 /  60  70  60  60  20
TYR  73  84  67  86  67 /  40  60  50  20  10
GGG  73  85  70  86  65 /  40  60  60  30  10
LFK  73  90  72  88  68 /  40  50  60  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
442 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

ARZ059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-126-138-
151-153-166-167-091100-
LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION AR-
CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-BOWIE-CASS-MARION-HARRISON-PANOLA-SHELBY-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
442 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITIONAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH A
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ARZ050-051-OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-152-165-
091100-
SEVIER-HOWARD-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-SMITH-GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-ANGELINA-
442 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE AREA.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR ARE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITIONAL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF MONDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH A
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER UNTIL AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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