Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
418 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF
THE TX HILL COUNTRY WITH SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS FIRING ALONG
AND OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHERE A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
IS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MORNING CLOUD COVER...SURFACE
HEATING HAS STILL BEEN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND CONTRIBUTED TO THE
RATHER UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OBSERVED. RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TSTMS THIS
MID AFTERNOON HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED QUARTER SIZED HAIL OVER PARTS
OF NE TX. THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNSET THIS EVENING...AT WHICH TIME THE HEATING ELEMENT DRIVING
THESE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN TAPERING BACK TO
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR ERN CWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER
DUE TO THE CONTINUED MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION SO HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR
REGION SO SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. FOR NOW...IT
LOOKS LIKE OUR PRIMARY CONCERN MAY HEAVY RAIN AND I MENTION THIS
BECAUSE OF THE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS ON TOP OF WHAT SOME AREAS ARE RECEIVING TODAY. THIS MAY POSE
A MINOR FLOODING THREAT EARLY WEEK WITH FOR SOME OF OUR SMALLER
WATERWAYS THAT ARE ALREADY NEAR BANKFULL...JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND DURING WHAT IS TYPICALLY ONE OF OUR WETTEST MONTHS.

THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS QUIET AS THE COLD FRONT WILL
EXIT THE REGION LATE ON TUESDAY. SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
READINGS RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  87  70  88  71 /  40  20  10  20  10
MLU  65  86  69  87  69 /  30  20  10  20  10
DEQ  63  85  67  85  70 /  30  20  10  20  20
TXK  66  85  68  86  68 /  30  20  10  20  20
ELD  64  85  68  86  68 /  40  20  10  20  10
TYR  67  87  70  87  71 /  30  20  10  20  20
GGG  66  87  69  88  71 /  30  20  10  20  20
LFK  69  88  71  88  72 /  30  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101300-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1155 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDED HEATING COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRANSITION EAST OF THE
REGION...A CONTINUED WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ISOLATED...TO POSSIBLY
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEN BY MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE
REGION...LOOK FOR COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN INCREASE IN
THE FOUR STATE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

ARZ059-070-TXZ097-092345-
BOWIE-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-
545 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
     LITTLE RIVER AND MILLER...
IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
     BOWIE...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     OGDEN...

AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF OGDEN...OR 8 MILES
SOUTH OF ASHDOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

19

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