Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW IS SEEN MOVING OUT OF RAIN AREAS AND EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WITH VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.
MEANWHILE...THE RAIN AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE
WHILE WEAKENING ON THE DOWN STREAM SIDE AND STILL HOLDING ON THE
NORTHERN FLANK. WE HAVE RESTRUCTURED THE POPS A BIT WITH NOT MUCH
OTHER NEED FOR CHANGE ASIDE FROM REMOVING SOME DAYBREAK WORDING
IN THE ZONES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE REGION TO CONTRIBUTE TO VCTS CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MOSTLY MID AND UPPER 70S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PREVAILING WIND. SOME GUSTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND RAIN COOLED LOW 70S ARE FOUND OVER OUR NORTH WHERE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES WHICH HAS A GOOD DEAL OF
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WORK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT. THE
NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WE SEE ON RADAR...BUT NOT VERY WELL LOCATION WISE AT
THIS TIME MUCH LESS PERHAPS FOR LATER.

THE NOCTURNAL INFLUENCE WILL SOON BE LOST WITH DAYTIME HEATING
UNFOLDING DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION
COVERAGE...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE ARE SEEING THE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL PROPAGATE DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THE GFS IS DOING JUST AS
WELL AS THE FINER RESOLUTION EFFORT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
AND HAS A 1017 BM HIGH LOOMING TO OUR NORTH BY 18Z AND WILL KEEP A
SHEAR AXIS OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS. WE
ARE NOT FAR FROM MAV GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT AND TERM AND PERHAPS A
BIT BELOW MEX IN THE LONGER RUN TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

AN UPDATE TO THE ZONES WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK TO CLEAN
UP WORDING CURRENTLY IN THE PRE PERIOD FOR THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  74  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  20  20
MLU  92  72  92  71  93 /  50  40  30  30  20
DEQ  91  70  91  71  94 /  50  30  30  20  20
TXK  92  73  92  73  94 /  40  30  30  20  20
ELD  91  70  91  71  94 /  50  40  30  30  20
TYR  93  73  94  73  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  73  94  72  94 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  95  72  93  72  95 /  20  10  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101130-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
629 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH ARKANSAS...FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA...FOR DEEP EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG VARIOUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A WEAK COOL FRONT ALL DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE FOUR STATE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING EACH DAY AS THE WEAK COOL FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT OF FOCUS. DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH THIS RESIDUAL BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL.
OTHERWISE...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

24