Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/06Z TAF ISSUE...A LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A
KELD TO KJSO LINE. WITH THIS LINE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO SEVERE
TURBULENCE. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 10Z.
FOLLOWING THE LINE OF STORMS...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE
REGION WILL LIKELY BE MVFR/IFR BY 10Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 15Z...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS TO DEVELOP AS
THE FINAL WAVE ROTATING AROUND A UPPER LOW PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
BY 11/00Z...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR AS THE CONVECTION MOVES
EAST OF THE REGION. SURFACE WIND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 KTS
TONIGHT BECOMING WEST ON TUESDAY AND INCREASING UP TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 22 KTS. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND AS OF
0245Z...THE LEADING EDGE WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR ALTO TX...TO
KSHV...TO KELD. ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY WORKED OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S MCS SO THERE IS VERY LITTLE CAPE TO WORK WITH.
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS ALSO LED TO SOME VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WITH A CLUSTER SW KSHV.
STORM MOTIONS HAVE GENERALLY TO THE EAST BETWEEN 30-40 KTS SO THIS
SHOULD ALSO HELP LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN OK SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL ASCENT TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION AND LIKELY INCREASE
COVERAGE PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN ZONES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. LOWERED POPS
BEHIND THIS NEW CONVECTION AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES
THROUGH 06Z. LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND LOWER POPS IN THE NW AFTER 06Z. TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
COOLED NEAR OR BELOW FCSTED MIN TEMPS SO HAVE ADJUSTED THOSE GRIDS
AS WELL. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THE OUR LA PARISHES WHEN THE CONVECTION ARRIVES AND SFC
DEWPOINTS INCREASE.

UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  85  65  89  69 /  70  40  20  10  10
MLU  70  85  68  88  68 /  70  60  30  10  10
DEQ  60  80  60  87  64 /  40  30  20  10  10
TXK  65  82  63  87  67 /  60  40  20  10  10
ELD  66  83  64  87  66 /  70  60  30  10  10
TYR  65  85  64  90  72 /  50  20  10  10  10
GGG  65  85  63  90  70 /  70  30  10  10  10
LFK  70  88  66  91  72 /  70  50  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
342 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-102045-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
342 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SPINS TO OUR NORTH. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS...BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...BEFORE BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION. AFTER A
BRIEF MID WEEK BREAK...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
119 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

LAZ012-013-018-019-021-100715-
BIENVILLE-CALDWELL-JACKSON-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
119 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 215 AM CDT...FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES...

IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
     NATCHITOCHES AND BIENVILLE...
IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
     JACKSON...CALDWELL AND WINN...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
     JONESBORO AND WINNFIELD...

AT 119 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
DETECTING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES
SOUTH OF ARCADIA TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF JONESBORO TO 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JONESBORO TO 11 MILES EAST OF CAMPTI...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAMBLING TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF JONESBORO TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JONESBORO TO 16 MILES NORTHEAST
OF NATCHITOCHES...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

15