Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS San Diego, CA

089 
WWUS56 KSGX 162101
SVSSGX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
201 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CAC065-162130-
/O.CON.KSGX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140916T2130Z/
RIVERSIDE CA-
201 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM PDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY...

AT 158 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WINCHESTER...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HEMET. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
MURRIETA HOT SPRINGS...WILDOMAR...AND WINCHESTER.

LAT...LON 3383 11691 3343 11701 3344 11722 3379 11739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 258DEG 2KT 3366 11706

$$
JT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1015 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HOT HUMID
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE INLAND EMPIRE. THE MOIST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THEN...BUT SOME COOLING WILL OCCUR AS THE HIGH ALOFT WEAKENS. A
RETURN TO ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY
AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE SURGE WENT THROUGH THE DESERTS THIS
MORNING AND BROUGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SALTON SEA BY MID-MORNING. THIS ALSO BROUGHT STRATUS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCALLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...INCLUDING AT HIGHLAND
SPRING IN RIVERSIDE COUNTY AND HELLHOLE CANYON AND SILL HILL IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. IT GAVE A SPIKE IN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
VALLEYS...AT 10 AM...WE WERE ALREADY 97 DEGREES AT THE NWS OFFICE IN
RANCHO BERNARDO WITH A DEW POINT OF 73. DUE TO THE MORE HEAT THAN
TUESDAY IN WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT
ADVISORY TO THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL ZONE FOR TODAY. HIGHEST
TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE INLAND EMPIRE WHERE LOCAL TEMPS AROUND 108
COULD AGAIN OCCUR...THOUGH 100 DEGREE TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MESAS AND QUITE A BIT OF ORANGE COUNTY. DUE TO THE
MONSOONAL SURGE...THERE IS A GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE
INLAND EMPIRE AND WESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP THERE TODAY. IF TSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE INLAND EMPIRE...HAIL
WOULD BE A THREAT DUE TO THE SHARP DECREASE IN MOISTURE ABOVE 550
MB. HRRR SHOWS THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE INLAND EMPIRE WHERE LOCAL
RAINFALL COULD EXCEED AN INCH AND COULD BRING LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ALSO...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS COULD OCCUR AS THE STORMS WOULD BE
RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS DUE TO ELEVATED HEATING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND
LOCALLY IN THE DESERTS...THOUGH SUFFACE BOUNDARIES DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE THERE.

THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FOR WED AS FORMER
HURRICANE ODILE IS TRACKING TOWARDS NW SONORA/SE ARIZONA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND OR A LITTLE ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AT THE COAST AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2 INCHES IN THE DESERTS
AND CAPES EASILY OVER 1000 J/KG...WE SHOULD HAVE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS/DESERTS AND POSSIBLY THE VALLEYS.
MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EXPLICIT PRECIP...BUT WE COULD GET
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LOCAL FLOODING. FLOODING CHANCES DO NOT LOOK
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THOUGH. WE LOSE 2-3 DEG C
OF 850 MB TEMPS WED...SO GENERALLY PLACES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 DEG F
COOLER...THOUGH WITH HIGH HUMIDITY STILL AROUND...HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. WILL EXAMINE FURTHER. FOR
THU...MUCH DRIER AIR COMES IN FROM THE WEST...AND ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. WE HAVE ALREADY DECREASED MTN/DESERT TSTORM
CHANCES AND MAY ELIMINATE THEM ENTIRELY IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
MODELS HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD BRING SOME CLOUDS...BUT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOOK MARGINAL FOR
TSTORMS. BEST CHANCES OF ANY TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY DUE TO THE MOISTURE PROFILE THERE. FRIDAY LOOKS
FAIRLY COOL DUE TO THE UPPER LOW BUT WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
CONTINUED HIGH SST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
161519Z...MOSTLY UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
IN THE 5000-10000 FT MSL LAYER ALONG THE DESERT SLOPES AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT DESERTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1800 UTC. 1800-17/0300
UTC TIME-FRAME...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 8000 FT MSL WITH
ISOL-SCT THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...VALLEY...INCLUDING THE INLAND EMPIRE AND POSSIBLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE DESERTS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS AND LOWERED VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. CB TOPS
35000-45000 FT MSL POSSIBLE. ALSO...E WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT ALONG MTN
RIDGES...COASTAL SLOPES AND INTO THE VALLEYS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
UP/DOWNDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE LLWS THROUGH 17/0000 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
819 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AT 8 AM...THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN BUOY SHOWED A SOUTHWEST SWELL AT
AROUND 4 FEET/19-21 SECONDS...AND THE NEARSHORE BUOYS SHOWED A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL AT 3 FEET/20 SECONDS. THIS IS LARGER THAN
WHAT THE WAVE WATCH 3 FORECAST OF ONLY 2 FEET SHOWED. CONSIDERING
THIS...ELEVATED SURF OF 4-6 FEET ALONG SOUTHWEST FACING BEACHES AND
WIDESPREAD STRONG RIP AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS IS LIKELY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUS...A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED...EFFECTIVE
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL
WILL SLOWLY LOWER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...DIMINISHING THE SURF AND
RIP CURRENT THREAT.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VALLEYS...MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. ACTIVATION
IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SAME AREAS. WEATHER
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS SOON AS IS SAFELY POSSIBLE.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL
     AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND
     FOOTHILLS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
118 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CAZ043-050-162115-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
118 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM PDT...

AT 115 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RANCHO SAN DIEGO...OR NEAR EL CAJON...MOVING
WEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...LA MESA...LEMON GROVE...SPRING
VALLEY AND BONITA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3265 11708 3297 11713 3304 11689 3266 11674
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 076DEG 7KT 3275 11695

JT