Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

...Strong to Severe Storms and Heavy Rainfall in the Forecast For
the Missouri Ozarks...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Active start this morning with a QLCS moving across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri as of 3 am. This line of storms has
been producing 40 to 50 mph winds occasionally up to near 60 in
isolated spots. The latest 4KM WRF shows this line of storms
making its way down to the Springfield area by sunrise and slowly
dissipating through mid morning. The main threat this morning will
be frequent lightning and gusty winds along with very heavy
downpours. Areas north and west of I-44 will likely see between
half an inch to an inch of rainfall this morning with locally
heavier amounts.

The big question for today is how this early morning convection
will play into the afternoon heating and evening convection.
Current thinking is this activity will end by late morning and
clearing will occur by midday. Temperatures will climb back into
the upper 80s to near 90 south of where the frontal boundary sets
up. The boundary will likely setup from near Pittsburg Kansas to
central Missouri by late afternoon and evening.

Forecast MLCape values will be between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Bulk
shear will be on the order of 40 to 50 knots. A wave of low
pressure will develop over south central Kansas late
afternoon/evening and ride up along the frontal boundary. Low
level winds may back somewhat and slightly enhance low-level shear
for a slight tornado threat into the evening hours for portions of
southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. SPC has the area in a
slight risk for severe storms today.

A few supercells initially will be possible eventually merging
into a QLCS and linear storm complex late evening and overnight
across the Missouri Ozarks. The overall main threat will be
damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls
size possible. Tornado threat will be limited and mainly for the
early evening hours.

Late this evening into the overnight hours...the main concerns
will turn into more of a hydro or heavy rainfall situation
depending on where these storms will train over the same area.
Storm total rainfall possible from today through Tuesday night is
between 1 to 2 inches south of I-44 and 2 to 4 inches north of
I-44 with locally heavier amounts. The ground should be able to
take several inches being so dry lately. The problem to watch is
rainfall rates and training of storms. There will be a limited or
localized flash flooding threat but confidence is too low to issue
any watch at this time. Will like to see what rainfall this
morning's convection produces and have the day shift take another
look at any headlines that might be needed for tonight's round of
storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The front stalls out Tuesday right over the area and additional
scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Tuesday night. The
front eventually lifts back northward on Wednesday with more
scattered storms possible over central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks.

Upper level ridge of high pressure briefly builds in for Thursday
with drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. A Canadian
front makes a run for the area late Friday into Saturday and slows
down. Scattered convection will be in the forecast with this slow
moving front for the weekend. Followed more closely with the ECMWF
for the weekend with the front clearing through the area by Sunday
and surface high builds in for Sunday. Slightly cooler and drier
airmass will follow with below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

Convection progressing more eastward than southward which will add
a few hours to first though earlier this evening with main
convection getting in the SGF/JLN areas by 10-11z. VFR conditions
expected outside of convection with MVFR within any convection.
Convective trends will likely start to diminish by mid morning and
as it pushes further south so far now will go with a prob30 group
with this area of convection. Redevelopment will be possible late
in the afternoon/early evening. Non-convective low level wind
shear will be possible at SGF/JLN overnight with strong low level
jet setting up over the area.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
105 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020615-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
105 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
  PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS MAY MOVE
  AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR BY DAY BREAK.
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40
  MPH WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

  THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH
  WINDS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
  INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED
  IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  SOME ONGOING LINGERING WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL
  MISSOURI NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

  A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR PERIODIC
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
  WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
  DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN RISKS.

  AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
  FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
  SOME AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON A DAILY AFTERNOON BASIS
  WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MOZ066-077-010915-
BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
308 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON AND VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL
415 AM CDT...

AT 307 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF
HORTON TO 15 MILES WEST OF MINDENMINES...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE GOLDEN CITY...LAMAR...LIBERAL...
MINDENMINES...NEVADA...SCHELL CITY...SHELDON...VERDELLA AND WALKER.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE PRAIRIE
STATE PARK.

HEAVY RAINS MAY QUICKLY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES.

LAT...LON 3806 9462 3806 9427 3804 9423 3806 9421
      3805 9419 3806 9413 3804 9406 3735 9409
      3737 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 274DEG 55KT 3805 9435 3740 9483

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ097-101-010915-
CHEROKEE KS-CRAWFORD KS-
312 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE AND FAR SOUTHERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 309 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
CHEROKEE TO 11 MILES WEST OF FAULKNER...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAXTER SPRINGS...CARONA...CHEROKEE...
COLUMBUS...GALENA...MCCUNE...SCAMMON...TREECE...WEIR AND WEST
MINERAL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 330 AM.

LAT...LON 3739 9507 3735 9462 3702 9461 3700 9462
      3699 9500 3700 9507 3700 9508 3715 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 273DEG 49KT 3736 9486 3704 9515

FOSTER

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