Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Springfield, MO

078 
WWUS53 KSGF 242129
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MOC057-109-242200-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-140424T2200Z/
DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
429 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 424 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
EVERTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DADEVILLE...EVERTON...MILLER...PENNSBORO AND SOUTH GREENFIELD.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES STOCKTON LAKE. 

A SECOND STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT NORTHERN LAWRENCE 
COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3734 9395 3753 9363 3727 9363 3715 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 237DEG 43KT 3739 9376

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

FOSTER

433 
WWUS53 KSGF 242142
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
442 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MOC057-109-242151-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-140424T2200Z/
DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
442 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

HOWEVER A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN 
LAWRENCE COUNTY BETWEEN MOUNT VERNON AND HALLTOWN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3734 9395 3753 9363 3727 9363 3715 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 237DEG 43KT 3745 9358

$$

FOSTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
333 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Through early This Evening)
Issued at 250 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Previous mesoscale discussion...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for the region this afternoon, in
effect through 10 PM tonight.  Quick moving broken lines of
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through early
evening, as a cold front and strong upper level shortwave traverse
the region.  18Z special RAOB was somewhat lackluster with mid level
lapse rates, which likely explains why convection has struggled a
bit to really organize.  Nonetheless, given modest instability and
good deep level shear, do think that there is a reasonable potential
for a few marginally severe storms this afternoon across the Watch
area, with large hail to the size of quarters to perhaps half
dollars the primary threat.  The 18Z sounding did show a fair amount
of dry air in the low levels (albeit less than at 12Z), suggesting
at least some potential for strong wind gusts.  Weak low level shear
is resulting in an extremely low tornado threat.

Current indications are that these lines of storms should clear the
region from west to east from late afternoon through early evening,
and will likely be able to end the Watch early from the west a few
counties at a time once this takes place.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Friday may end up being the lone quiet day of the remainder of
the forecast. A shortwave ridge will build into the region and
allow for sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 70s.

The first in what will likely be several chances for rainfall will
affect western and northern portions of the outlook area
(generally I-49 west and north of highway 60) late Friday night
and Saturday morning. A strong low level jet will develop over the
Plains and as it veers, thunderstorms will develop on the edge of
an incoming elevated mixed layer. Enough instability will be
present to support a marginal hail risk, generally along and
northwest of a line from Pittsburg, KS to the Lake of the Ozarks
region. This activity should shift north of the area Saturday
afternoon as the elevated mixed layer spreads over the area and
caps us off. This should allow us to warm up nicely with highs in
the 80s in most locations.

The most interesting portion of the forecast remains the Sunday
into Monday time frame. The 12z suite of model output continues to
indicate a strong mid level wave becoming negatively tilted as it
moves out of the central/southern Rockies Saturday, then quickly
transitioning into a closed low over the high Plains on Sunday.
There remains some minor placement differences between models, but
the overall pattern is well agreed upon.

On Sunday, the big question for our neck of the woods is whether
or not the dry line will shift this far to the east. A consensus
of the models would suggest the dry line should end up closer to
the I-35 corridor to our west. With increasingly unidirectional
shear (due the quick transition to a strong, closed low), we will
likely have to wait to inherit a convective complex that evolves
from whatever develops/congeals to our west Sunday afternoon and
evening. All modes of severe weather are still supported, but
with more emphasis on wind/hail at this time. Again, this will be
something to watch with subsequent forecasts.

Heading into Monday, the questions become more complex. How
quickly does the upper low shift to the east? What is the exact
location of the upper low? At this point there are two plausible
solutions. The first, supported by the ECMWF is to have a second
window of opportunity for strong/severe storms Monday as another
speed max rounds the base of the upper low and spreads into the
warm sector. Our area would be on the northern fringe of the
severe risk, with the better potential to our south. Another
equally plausible solution, supported by the GEFS/GEM, is for the
upper low to expand east and our area get dry slotted. Something
to watch, but certainly a low confidence forecast at this
juncture.

The remainder of the week will see the risk for severe exit but an
abnormally cool and unsettled stretch of weather spread over the
Midwest. Highs some 10-20 degrees below average and lows around 10
degrees below average are expected. Periodic chances for showers
are possible each afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Again,
much depends on how this upper low behaves. So far, model
consensus agrees on a very slow movement of this low, but trust in
a precise location of this low on any given day is on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

Breezy south winds will continue early this afternoon ahead of a
cold front. That front, and an associated line of thunderstorms,
will sweep across the region this afternoon, likely affecting all
three terminal sites. Clearing skies and west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
254 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-252000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
254 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  BROKEN LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
  THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE. LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
  THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
  ON FRIDAY.

  A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A
  WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. MORE ORGANIZED
  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
  THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
  AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WHICH
  MAY INCLUDE PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
  TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
  TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
  OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1247 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

KSZ073-097-241815-
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-
1247 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN BOURBON
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENBUSH...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ST. PAUL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREENBUSH BY 1255 PM CDT.
  BRAZILTON BY 100 PM CDT.
  6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GIRARD BY 105 PM CDT.
  FARLINGTON BY 110 PM CDT.
  PAWNEE STATION AND ENGLEVALE BY 115 PM CDT.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3767 9509 3785 9486 3777 9462 3744 9462
      3736 9507 3741 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 233DEG 35KT 3748 9506

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MOZ066-067-241900-
ST. CLAIR MO-VERNON MO-
134 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON AND
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 129 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALKER...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEVADA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SCHELL CITY BY 140 PM CDT.
  TABERVILLE AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF TIFFIN BY 145 PM CDT.
  JOHNSON CITY...8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONEGAW SPRINGS AND 8 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF APPLETON CITY BY 155 PM CDT.
  9 MILES WEST OF LOWRY CITY BY 200 PM CDT.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3821 9372 3806 9372 3790 9401 3790 9406
      3787 9407 3779 9420 3796 9432 3805 9424
      3806 9413 3804 9411 3804 9407 3821 9406
      3822 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 228DEG 38KT 3796 9414

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MOZ088-093-242130-
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-
341 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 337 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF SAGINAW...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF NEOSHO...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DIAMOND...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FAIRVIEW...
GRANBY...LEAWOOD...NEOSHO...SAGINAW...SARCOXIE...SILVER CREEK AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOPLIN.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 32 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3678 9456 3710 9448 3715 9406 3712 9405
      3677 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 257DEG 29KT 3697 9440

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
350 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MOZ057-058-069-070-081-082-242130-
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-MARIES MO-MILLER MO-PULASKI MO-TEXAS MO-
350 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CAMDEN...LACLEDE...
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...PULASKI...SOUTHERN MILLER AND WESTERN MARIES
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BRUMLEY TO MORGAN...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CONWAY...CROCKER...DIXON...FORT LEONARD
WOOD...IBERIA...LEBANON...OSAGE BEACH...RICHLAND...ST. ROBERT AND
WAYNESVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 115 AND 168 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3829 9199 3809 9201 3807 9202 3805 9201
      3802 9202 3801 9202 3761 9203 3757 9203
      3747 9203 3749 9283 3816 9266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 258DEG 37KT 3807 9247 3751 9261

FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
403 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

MOZ088-089-094-242130-
JASPER MO-DADE MO-LAWRENCE MO-
403 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER AND SOUTHERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILLER...OR 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE EVERTON...MILLER AND MOUNT VERNON.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 58 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3705 9408 3729 9411 3737 9362 3711 9361
      3704 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 180DEG 0KT 3717 9389

FOSTER