Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
319 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Widely scattered showers and storms have developed across the
eastern half of the area this afternoon on the heels of warm/moist
air advection. Shear remains marginal, thus pulse and multicell
cluster behavior is expected the rest of this afternoon with a
general drift of this activity to the east. Could see a rogue
localized wind gust and some small hail, otherwise severe weather
is not expected with this activity.

Heading into this evening, ongoing scattered convection will
quickly come to an end and much of the area will remain quiet.
Eyes will turn to our north/northwest where a storm system and
cold front are taking shape. Expectations are for the bulk of
shower and thunderstorm development tonight will stay to our
north, with perhaps additional development driven by the low level
jet along a prefrontal trough that should enter northern portions
of the area late tonight. Overall, expect warm/humid/breezy
conditions tonight with lows in the low/mid 70s.

The cold front to our northwest will enter the area during the day
Wednesday. We should see decent warming into the morning to aid
destabilization. That said, the better mid level height falls and
shear will end up to our north, shunting to the east with time.
This will result in a positively tilted system that will ease its
way through the area. There will certainly be enough mid level
shear to support storm organization. With MLCAPE exceeding 2000
J/kg, localized severe storms will be possible from midday through
the evening hours along/ahead of the front. Linear mode is
preferred, making wind gusts the primary severe risk. With
precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches along/ahead of this
front, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Aforementioned cold front will gradually push through the area
Wednesday night, with rain ending across far southern Missouri
Thursday morning. A much cooler airmass will move into the region
and pretty much stay in place for the next several days.

12z suite of model output continues to exhibit spread for Friday.
A rather potent shortwave will move across the northern tier of
states. Moisture profiles between the ECMWF and the NAM/GFS/GEM
differ, with the ECMWF more moist. As a result, even with the bulk
of this system staying to our north the ECMWF paints some light
showers across the region Friday into Friday evening. Have
included low end chance PoPs for this time frame.

Temperatures this weekend will remain on the cool side of average.
Will need to watch for rain chances across western portions of the
outlook area Sunday as the pattern amplifies a bit and isentropic
upglide increases. It may be too dry to support rain, but
certainly could lead to an increase in clouds. The next potential
weather maker is possible early next week. There is still
considerable spread with the timing of this feature and have
continued with near climo PoPs and temperatures trending back to
near average for mid September.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

Breezy southwest winds will continue this afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the heat of the
afternoon, mainly across areas east of the terminals. That said,
there is enough potential for a storm to impact SGF and BBG that
VCTS will be maintained in the latest TAF update.

Any thunderstorms this afternoon should end by early evening, with
rather stout LLWS developing tonight. Southerly winds will remain
breezy, and pick up considerably and veer to southwest after
sunrise tomorrow morning. As a cold front approaches the region
tomorrow, the potential for showers/isolated thunderstorms will
increase. Have included prob 30 groups for now, though frontal
passage will likely occur just past the end of this TAF cycle.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
343 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-102045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
343 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN
  OZARKS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
  A FEW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE
  EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
  ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN
  MISSOURI.

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
  SOUTH INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
  MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  SOME WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OUTLOOK AREA
  WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
  WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH
  LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS
  EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
  RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
425 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MOZ057-058-092200-
MARIES MO-MILLER MO-
425 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN MILLER AND NORTHWESTERN
MARIES COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARYS HOME...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF ELDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ETTERVILLE...MARYS HOME...SAINT ELIZABETH
AND TUSCUMBIA.

LAT...LON 3842 9240 3834 9240 3834 9228 3833 9223
      3834 9220 3830 9218 3829 9203 3821 9208
      3811 9234 3822 9253 3841 9251 3843 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 228DEG 28KT 3835 9238

GRIFFIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

MOZ058-071-092230-
MARIES MO-PHELPS MO-
450 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PHELPS AND SOUTHERN MARIES
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 448 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF NEWBURG...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ROLLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE DOOLITTLE...JEROME...NEWBURG...NORTHWYE...
ROLLA...ROSATI...ST. JAMES AND VICHY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 169 AND 199 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED
BY THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3792 9152 3779 9178 3779 9180 3777 9181
      3770 9195 3780 9203 3795 9202 3816 9182
      3816 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 232DEG 45KT 3785 9187

GRIFFIN