Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Springfield, MO

770 
WWUS53 KSGF 020520
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MOC009-109-020531-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-140902T0530Z/
BARRY MO-LAWRENCE MO-
1220 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN
BARRY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 AM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3713 9402 3717 9361 3694 9361 3684 9362
      3684 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0521Z 271DEG 49KT 3699 9337

$$

BOXELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1146 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday's cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

Strong to severe thunderstorms have been ongoing since early
evening and will be affecting the terminals during the overnight
hours. First round currently going through JLN and has dropped
into IFR conditions. Should see it moving into SGF by the
beginning of the 06z TAFS and into BBG by 08-09z. Another round
will begin to move into JLN by 06-07z. Convection should come to
an end by sunrise at the terminal locations.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
752 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-030100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
752 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS
  EVENING ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND ISOLATED
  TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST
  STORMS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
  STORMS TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING RISK
  SHOULD THESE STORMS START TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. A
  FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.

  IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS TONIGHT...MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
  CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER WHEN STORMS
  APPROACH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR PERIODIC
  THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
  FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
  A DAILY AFTERNOON BASIS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
  SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  AREAS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     HAIL             NECK CITY               37.26N 94.44W
09/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
726 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 N FAIR PLAY           37.69N 93.57W
09/01/2014                   POLK               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER SEES FUNNEL CLOUD TO HIS NORTH. HE IS LOCATED 4
            MILES NORTH OF FAIR PLAY.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
812 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             12 W BAXTER SPRINGS     37.02N 94.95W
09/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1121 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEAWOOD                 37.03N 94.49W
09/01/2014                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST
            PORTIONS OF NEWTON COUNTY. ESTIMATED 70 MPH WIND.

&&

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             BAXTER SPRINGS          37.02N 94.74W
09/01/2014  E1.00 INCH       CHEROKEE           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO REPORTED 60 MPH WINDS USING WEB REPORT.

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW NEOSHO             36.90N 94.41W
09/01/2014                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TRAILERS BLOWN OVER AT HIGHWAY NN NORTHWEST OF
            NEOSHO

&&

LDOOLEY