Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Springfield, MO

355 
WWUS53 KSGF 162255
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

KSC011-162305-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-140816T2315Z/
BOURBON KS-
555 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOURBON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3768 9464 3768 9462 3769 9462 3773 9450
      3763 9433 3749 9442 3748 9462 3765 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 312DEG 14KT 3760 9459

$$

KSC037-MOC011-217-162315-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-140816T2315Z/
CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
555 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
VERNON...NORTHWESTERN BARTON AND NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 553 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARCADIA...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARCADIA...LIBERAL...MULBERRY AND VERDELLA.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES PRAIRIE STATE PARK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3768 9464 3768 9462 3769 9462 3773 9450
      3763 9433 3749 9442 3748 9462 3765 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 312DEG 14KT 3760 9459

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HATCH

709 
WWUS53 KSGF 162310
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
610 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

KSC037-MOC011-217-162320-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-140816T2315Z/
CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
610 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN VERNON...
NORTHWESTERN BARTON AND NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
615 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3768 9464 3768 9462 3769 9462 3773 9450
      3763 9433 3749 9442 3748 9462 3765 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 312DEG 14KT 3756 9454

$$

HATCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
307 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Main forecast concern will be with storm development and trends
for this afternoon through tonight. The cold front is making
slower than expected southward progress and currently extends from
Kirksville to Sedalia to Emporia Kansas. The airmass ahead of the
front has gotten very unstable with LAPS showing lifted indices
around -7 and CAPE over 3000 j/kg. Dewpoint temps in the lower to
mid 70s were pooling just ahead of the front. The latest radar
images shows storms beginning to develop just to the northwest of
the forecast area.

Storm coverage will increase ahead of the front through the rest
of the afternoon as the lower levels continue to destabilize and a
subtle 700mb trough moves across the area. Freezing levels will
remain high limiting hail growth potential. However unusually tall
CAPE profile on NAM Bufr soundings show that cloud heights may be
sufficient for at least some marginally severe hailstones. Steep mixed
layer below cloud height may also allow a few storms to produce
wind gusts to 60 mph. Am getting concerned about higher
precipitable water values showing up on forecast soundings so may
need to add limited flood potential to our HWO.

Storm development will gradually shift southeast through tonight
as the front makes its way toward the I-44 corridor...so will keep
pops going through the night. Severe threat should diminish with
loss of afternoon destabilization.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Short wave to exit eastward and approach LSX by 12z Sunday. On
going storms should be exiting region as well as front passes
through as well.

Weak ripples currently topping the upper ridge and then descending
into the plains to then be key for redevelopment of thunderstorms over
the eastern CWA on Sunday and then again on Monday. While POPS are
in the forecast...confidence in any organized rain is somewhat
limited after tonight into early next week.

Models then advertise a series of shortwaves to travel across the
northern tier of the nation...with variation in how they are
handling a split flow. Of particular interest is a stronger wave
that both the GFS/ECM advect across the northern tier to reach the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. There is the potential that this wave
will push a weakening front into the Central Plains that will
focus convergence as weak ripples top the ridge. At this time
though...will downplay rain chances while noting that some of the
warmest conditions of the summer will occur as the ridge builds
into the Central Plains.

The fact that this summer has been unclimatological mild will
potentially magnify the impact of the situation when combined with
an open Gulf and as school resumes and fall sports continue to
get underway.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

We will see a cold front move across the Joplin and Springfield
airports during this forecast period...with winds shifting to
west and eventually northwest during the latter part of the
forecast period. With atmosphere destabilizing ahead of the
approaching front will carry vicinity thunder from mid afternoon
through much of the evening. For now will only carry tempo group
at Springfield where most likely storm development is expected.

We have also included light MVFR fog at all airports after 09Z
with MVFR ceilings at Springfield and Joplin due to proximity to
upper low toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Terry

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-172045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.
  LIMITED FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
 MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
 THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
 HOURS. INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THE
 STRONGEST STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
 IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAILSTONES OVER ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

 DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...STORM INTENSITIES
 WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY
 REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA...LEADING TO A LOCALIZED FLOOD
 THREAT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS.

 HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN THE
 MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

 A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A JOPLIN
 TO OSAGE BEACH LINE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
 AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS NEAR THE REGION...AND INTERACTS WITH
 UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

 MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES MAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
 105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
 EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A CASSVILLE TO
 SALEM LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
424 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

MOZ057-162200-
MILLER MO-
424 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MILLER COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

AT 421 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUSCUMBIA...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF OSAGE
BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LAKELAND.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS STATE PARK AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS.

PERSONS ON OR NEAR LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND
MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF
LIFE THREATENING HAZARDS TO BOATERS INCLUDING STRONG WINDS...VERY
CHOPPY WATERS...HAIL...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
POTENTIALLY BLINDING RAINS. DON'T BE CAUGHT OUT ON THE WATER IN A
THUNDERSTORM...BOATERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

LAT...LON 3816 9220 3816 9219 3809 9218 3813 9259
      3815 9261 3817 9260 3817 9262 3824 9266
      3834 9220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 269DEG 18KT 3821 9246

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

KSZ073-097-MOZ066-077-162245-
BOURBON KS-CRAWFORD KS-BARTON MO-VERNON MO-
514 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRAWFORD...NORTHWESTERN
BARTON...SOUTHEASTERN BOURBON AND SOUTHERN VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 545
PM CDT...

AT 513 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF
NEVADA TO DEERFIELD TO GARLAND TO PAWNEE STATION TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PAWNEE STATION TO 3 MILES WEST OF FARLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARCADIA...ARMA...ENGLEVALE...GIRARD...
HEPLER...MULBERRY...NEVADA AND VERDELLA.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE PRAIRIE
STATE PARK.

THUNDERSTORMS POSE A VARIETY OF HAZARDS TO THOSE OUTDOORS...INCLUDING
HAIL... STRONG WINDS THAT CAN CREATE DANGEROUS FLYING PROJECTILES AND
DEBRIS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 3781 9407 3774 9424 3768 9433 3759 9443
      3756 9453 3746 9462 3756 9509 3770 9494
      3773 9487 3780 9473 3786 9464 3794 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 290DEG 16KT 3786 9442 3782 9453
          3776 9462 3770 9476 3767 9483 3762 9488

HATCH