Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Springfield, MO

537 
WWUS53 KSGF 090112
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
812 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

MOC119-090130-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-140809T0130Z/
MCDONALD MO-
812 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 810 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR SOUTH WEST
CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NOEL AND SOUTH WEST CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9462 3650 9463 3666 9462 3660 9454
      3652 9440 3651 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 312DEG 4KT 3655 9464 3645 9464

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TERRY

112 
WWUS53 KSGF 090118
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
818 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

MOC119-090130-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-140809T0130Z/
MCDONALD MO-
818 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MCDONALD COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 816 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR SOUTH WEST
CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTH WEST CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3657 9462 3653 9449 3651 9443 3649 9462
      3650 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 312DEG 4KT 3655 9463 3645 9463

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

581 
WWUS53 KSGF 090121
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
821 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

MOC119-090131-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-140809T0130Z/
MCDONALD MO-
821 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDONALD COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED
OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3657 9462 3653 9449 3651 9443 3649 9462
      3650 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 312DEG 4KT 3655 9463 3645 9463

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

A cluster of thunderstorms has intensified over southeast Kansas
just west of our CWA during the past hour in an area of weak
surface convergence and lower/mid 70 dew points where lifted
indices were -4 to -6 on LAPS data. Current movement trends indicate
it will likely clip southwest Newton and western McDonald counties
within the next few hours. We have not received any hail or high
wind reports but elevated 50+dbZ cores occasionally shooting up to 30kft
indicate there may be some small hail potential. FFMP data shows
rainfall rates of 3-4 inches per hour with the heaviest storms,
but fairly progressive east-southeast movement should limit rain
accumulations to around an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

Surface front has stalled to the south of the area across northern
portions of Oklahoma and Arkansas. So far this afternoon, this has
been where thunderstorms have begun to redevelop. Looking a little
higher into the low levels, both the 925mb and 850mb wind shift
have made it just to the south of the area. As a result, the
better rain chances from this afternoon through tonight will be
across far southern portions of the forecast area (and points to
the south).

Heading into Saturday, will need to keep an eye on how this
boundary behaves. At this point, the short term models keep this
boundary in place, as a result much of Saturday looks to be OK
weather wise. Still cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers
and storms across southern Missouri, especially during the
afternoon hours.

Near persistence temperatures are expected tonight and Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

Our next, more widespread, rain maker looks to be heading into the
region late Saturday night and Sunday. A shortwave over the
central Plains along with a decent low level jet will feed this
system early Sunday. Timing of this system into the area suggests
that it will be weakening the deeper it moves into the area.
Afternoon heating should help spark additional scattered
convection. As a result, have included high chance to likely PoPs
for Sunday. Model consensus amplifies the upper level pattern over
the U.S., which sends a cold front through the region Sunday
night into Monday. This will maintain our unsettled weather
pattern with chance PoPs continuing until Monday night.

The good news is that the 12z suite of model output continues to
converge on a cooler and drier stretch of weather for Tuesday into
Thursday. 850mb temps in the lower teens will spread into the area
along with a large area of surface high pressure. This should help
knock temperatures back to some 7 to 10 degrees below average.

The upper pattern begins to deamplify toward the end of next week
with a broad northwest flow setting up over the Midwest. Both the
GFS and ECMWF do bring a wave into the center part of the U.S.,
but placement varies quite a bit (GFS to the north, ECMWF over our
area). Will introduce low end chance PoPs to account for at least
a near climo chance for rain and allow future forecasts to refine
the risk.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

With storms just west of Joplin at the beginning of the TAF
period, will maintain mention of storms for the first few hours
there and will carry vicinity showers at Springfield and Joplin
starting around 3Z. Have maintained mention of light fog late
tonight with light north wind and temperatures falling to near the
dew point. Will maintain light northerly winds through the taf
period with a weak front remaining nearly stationary along the
Ark/MO border.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Terry
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Terry

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-092045-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED FOG RISK.

DISCUSSION...

 ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
 STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ALONG
 THE ARKANSAS BORDER.

 PATCHY FOG LIMITING VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
 FROM PITTSBURG KANSAS...TO LEBANON AND ROLLA IN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
 SCATTERED IN NATURE ON SATURDAY...AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY NEAR THE
 MISSOURI ARKANSAS STATE LINE.

 A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
 NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT
 AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS
 UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

 AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S ARE EXPECTED AT
 TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
 MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN