Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Springfield, MO

828 
WWUS53 KSGF 062205
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
505 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSC011-MOC217-062230-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-140806T2230Z/
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-
505 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
VERNON AND EASTERN BOURBON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 502 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT SCOTT...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEERFIELD...FORT SCOTT...FULTON...HAMMOND...MARMATON...RICHARDS AND
STOTESBURY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 9473 3772 9486 3783 9488 3795 9479
      3803 9472 3804 9463 3806 9455 3792 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 230DEG 13KT 3785 9470

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

SCHAUMANN

748 
WWUS53 KSGF 062228
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSC011-MOC217-062236-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0193.000000T0000Z-140806T2230Z/
BOURBON KS-VERNON MO-
528 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN VERNON AND
EASTERN BOURBON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM. PONDING ON ROADWAYS WILL BE LIKELY IN FT. SCOTT AS 
RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

LAT...LON 3769 9473 3772 9486 3783 9488 3795 9479
      3803 9472 3804 9463 3806 9455 3792 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 230DEG 13KT 3786 9463

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

A shortwave was noted on the water vapor imagery this afternoon
over central Kansas. This feature will move across the Missouri
Ozarks late tonight into tomorrow and bring the first complex of
widespread showers and thunderstorms. A decent low level jet will
kick in late tonight and early tomorrow morning around 45 knots.
This should enhance convection tonight and with PW values
approaching 2 inches...these storms will be efficient rain
producers.

There is no organized severe weather expected but can't
rule out some isolated strong convection with gusty winds and small
hail along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Overnight
convection will slowly moving eastward during the first half of
the day on Thursday with additional convection developing along
the frontal boundary further west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

The models have backed off on the convection complex for Thursday
night but still indicate a low level jet up to 40 knots kicking in by
late Thursday night. This should energize at least some convection
near the boundary across the area. The models still hint at
another organized complex to develop late Friday night into
Saturday morning.

The boundary will linger through the weekend into early next week
with another round of convection possibly developing Saturday
night into Sunday and again Sunday night into Monday. Total QPF
still on track at a widespread 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts
up to 4 inches possible across central Missouri and east of
Highway 65 over the eastern Ozarks. No organized severe weather
expected with the complexes of storms. At this time...will not
need any headlines or flash flood watches but note that localized
heavier rainfall amounts could lead to some brief and minor
issues.

For the middle of next week...Tuesday into Wednesday...went more with
the ECMWF and kept the forecast drier as the frontal boundary is
pushed further south into the Gulf Coast region. Seasonable
temperatures will continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

Forecast concerns continue to center on rain/storm chances.
Isolate to widely scattered convection will fire this afternoon
and get close to the JLN aerodrome. At this point, activity looks
like it will remain far enough west/east of SGF/BBG and will keep
out of the forecast at these locations this afternoon. Heading
into tonight, a more organized area of showers and storms will
develop just to the northwest of the area and slowly move into the
region. Have provided an initial timing estimate of this activity.
Additional tweaks are likely and there remains a chance of
periodic IFR visibility with any heavier downpours of rain. This
activity will slowly exit east Thursday morning with improving
conditions during the late morning hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
311 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-072015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
311 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS INTO EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
  GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

  A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT PUSH
  INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT BRINGING
  HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
  90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
  AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

  MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
  WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
  4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE... WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED
  OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

  NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT
  AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
  WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 90S ARE EXPECTED AT
  TIMES THIS WEEK ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME
  SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN