Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Springfield, MO

332 
WWUS53 KSGF 231810
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
110 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MOC149-231845-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-140723T1845Z/
OREGON MO-
110 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OREGON COUNTY 
UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

AT 109 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COUCH...AND 
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTON...COUCH AND MYRTLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9142 3669 9140 3675 9143 3673 9135
      3665 9118 3659 9111 3650 9112 3649 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 309DEG 9KT 3661 9138

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

CRAMER

930 
WWUS53 KSGF 231843 RRA
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
143 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

MOC149-231854-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-140723T1845Z/
OREGON MO-
143 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR OREGON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 
145 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3650 9142 3669 9140 3675 9143 3673 9135
      3665 9118 3659 9111 3650 9112 3649 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 309DEG 9KT 3656 9130

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

Rather challenging short term forecast this morning. So far this
morning, the regional radar imagery has been mostly quiet with
just a few showers/storms popping up and dissipating across
eastern Missouri. This is, of course, in spite of previous (and
numerous) model solutions suggesting robust thunderstorm
development along the incoming cold front. Turns out that in
reality forcing has been much too weak to overcome warm
temperatures aloft (14C at 700mb is usually tough to overcome).

That said, altocumulus development has been noted on the regional
IR satellite imagery over the past few hours. Elevated parcels are
nearly uncapped, and there there is still plenty of elevated CAPE
present. Unfortunately, large scale forcing mechanisms remain on
the weak side. As a result, there remains the potential for a few
showers and storms to gradually develop along the incoming cold
front. Confidence, however, is shaky at best. Unless radar trends
begin to change dramatically, will likely be dropping going PoPs
to slight chance/low end chance.

The aforementioned cold front is currently entering central
Missouri. The wind shift should continue tracking south at around
30mph. The dewpoint drop with this front, however, is lagging by
about 100 miles or so. As a result, muggy conditions we are
experiencing right now will continue today. The front and lagging
dewpoint drop will exit to the south later this afternoon into
early this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will filter into
the region tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

00z suite of model output offers a few changes to the going
forecast. After a brief respite from hot temperatures Thursday,
the upper level ridge builds right back over the area Friday and
Saturday. With very warm 700mb temperatures yet again expected
with this airmass, have gone ahead and cut PoPs for Friday and
Saturday.

Sunday now features a cold front passage on the heels of a rapidly
amplifying upper level pattern. There will be some rain chances
with this frontal passage, but current indications are that any
activity should be rather hit/miss. Another strong trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS and send our temperatures decidedly
back below average. Have gone with low/mid 80s highs next week
with lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s. If current trends
persist, cooler highs and low will likely be necessary with future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A weak cold front is moving south through the area this morning.
This will cause winds to gradually become northeasterly with time
today and tonight, though speeds will still remain light. A few
isolated thunderstorms may be possible across southern Missouri at
times today, but coverage will be much too sparse for TAF
inclusion. Otherwise, VFR can be expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A STORM
COMPLEX MOVES QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI THROUGH 230 PM. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM THE GAINESVILLE AREA EAST TO
THAYER AND ALTON THROUGH 230 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP
TO TH SIZE OF QUARTERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI AND ALONG THE ARKANSAS
STATE LINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W COLUMBUS            37.17N 94.95W
07/23/2014  E55 MPH          CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                37.17N 94.84W
07/23/2014                   CHEROKEE           KS   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE LIMB REPORTED DOWN ON POWER LINE IN TOWN.

&&

JCOLUCCI