Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

Mesoscale convective system (MCS) moving southeastward out of
northern Missouri will be the first forecast challenge of the day.
MCS is at mature phase and following forward propagating system
motion vectors nicely to the southeast. Numerous outflow
boundaries and embedded surges have been noted with this activity
over the past several hours. There remains a wind risk with this
system at it moves into the Highway 54 corridor over the next few
hours. Current thoughts are to keep areas along and northeast of
a line from Nevada to Eminence in the better rain chances through
the mid morning hours. To the southwest of this line, the
incoming EML should keep these area dry.

The next forecast challenge concerns storm redevelopment this
afternoon and evening. While there will be a cap in place,
especially over the western half of the area, the incoming outflow
boundaries (now, really, the effective synoptic front) will
provide a focusing mechanism for isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon. With another very warm
and humid afternoon on tap, MLCAPE values should approach 3000
J/kg with around 40kt of 0-6km shear. Support is lacking in the
upper levels as a shortwave will be departing to the east as the
atmosphere reaches peak instability. If storms can indeed fire,
the better chances look to be along/east of the Highway 65
corridor. Given CAPE/shear profiles, supercellular structures are
expected with wind/hail the primary risks.

Tonight, linger boundaries will continue to provide at least a
chance for additional thunderstorm development. A low level jet
will once again get organized tonight, although initially to our
west. As this jet veers, additional scattered thunderstorms will
be possible late tonight/toward daybreak Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

The forecast for Thursday through the upcoming weekend remains
largely unchanged. The 00z suite of model output continues to keep
an oscillating synoptic boundary across the region. This will
maintain a risk for periodic MCS passages and a conditional risk
for severe weather. Each of the global models have a convective
system moving through the region each day and it is hard to argue
with their more pessimistic view on PoPs. While there will be dry
time to be had, it is impossible to pin point and chance to likely
PoPs are in the picture each day.

The severe risk will very much depend on timing and instability
profiles. With a belt of westerlies aloft sagging south into our
area, shear will be more than sufficient to support organized
complexes of storms. If timing favors peak instability, severe
storms both Thursday and Friday are plausible. Wind and hail would
be the primary risks, but with what will be numerous boundaries
around, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. If we can indeed get
a parade of MCSs across the area, localized flash flooding will be
potential concern. We can certainly use any rainfall we can
muster, but this airmass is quite moist and excessive rainfall
rates can cause problems (even given abnormally dry conditions).

Heading into next week, the forecast remains uncertain and largely
depending on whether or not the synoptic boundary gets shunted to
the east/south. The bottom line for early next week is that
additional chances for showers and storms are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...A strong low level jet has
developed over the region and will produce low level wind shear
concerns overnight into early Wednesday morning.

A line of storms is currently pushing across northern Missouri and
will track to the southeast and remain well north and east of the
TAF sites. An outflow boundary will push south through the area
Wednesday morning and will have to watch if it could produce any
convection. A strong cap is currently spreading into southwestern
Missouri and think the lift with this boundary will be too weak to
produce storms this morning.

A frontal boundary will then track south into the area Wednesday
afternoon into the evening hours. The heating of the day may
weaken the cap enough for some storms to develop across far
southern Missouri. Think the better chances may be in northern
Arkansas for this development but have included prob30 groups in
the KSGF and KBBG TAF sites as these storms may develop over head
and then push south into Arkansas.

Gusty south to southwesterly winds will occur during the day on
Wednesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Wise

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050515-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1201 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A SEVERE LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST
  ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
  CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
  EXTENT OF THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL APPROACH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
  MISSOURI GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65
  OVERNIGHT GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THESE STORMS
  ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100
  DEGREES AGAIN WEDNESDAY.

  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
  WILL BE TIED TO THE STRENGTH OF A STORM SUPPRESSING CAP OVER
  THE REGION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER KANSAS AND
  WESTERN MISSOURI AND WEAKER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. IF
  SEVERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THE MAIN RISKS WOULD BE DAMAGING
  WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

  PERIODIC ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY TO SUNDAY.
  STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AREAS OF
  HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN DEPENDING ON
  THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF EACH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
  OR LINE OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  CENTRAL MISSOURI GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARSAW TO VICHY
  MISSOURI LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
346 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOZ055-056-067-040915-
BENTON MO-MORGAN MO-ST. CLAIR MO-
346 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...MORGAN AND ST. CLAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

AT 340 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF
SYRACUSE TO 4 MILES WEST OF BRANDON TO 17 MILES NORTHWEST OF APPLETON
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE APPLETON CITY...COLE CAMP...LINCOLN...
LOWRY CITY...OSCEOLA...STOVER...VERSAILLES AND WARSAW.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS...TRUMAN LAKE AND TRUMAN STATE PARK.

PERSONS ON OR NEAR TRUMAN LAKE AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS...GET OUT OF
THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. THUNDERSTORMS POSE A
VARIETY OF LIFE THREATENING HAZARDS TO BOATERS INCLUDING STRONG
WINDS...VERY CHOPPY WATERS...HAIL...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND POTENTIALLY BLINDING RAINS. DON'T BE CAUGHT OUT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM...BOATERS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY SEEK SAFE
HARBOR.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3869 9284 3860 9283 3843 9262 3828 9270
      3819 9290 3823 9295 3819 9301 3822 9299
      3827 9307 3814 9306 3807 9339 3807 9350
      3804 9351 3791 9402 3796 9407 3822 9405
      3821 9353 3851 9352 3854 9308 3870 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 311DEG 40KT 3882 9274 3849 9344
          3829 9422

HATCH