Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
248 PM CDT Mon May 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

Models are in generally good agreement with the overall pattern of a
seasonably strong upper trof pushing eastward from the High Plains
into the Central CONUS over the next day or so.  Ahead of this trof
and its associated surface front...a persistent flow of moist Gulf
air has been streaming well northward.

Early this evening both Surface based and Most Unstable (MU) cape
values will support strong updraft development as this system tracks
eastward.  These strong cape values...upper dynamics and abundant
moisture will support potential large hail...strong gusty winds and
locally heavy downpours into tonight. At the same time...only moderate
deep layer wind shear (around 25kts) coupled with weak low level
helicity values due to mainly southeasterly surface flow
(directionally coincident with 850 flow) will not be particularly
conducive to Tornado formation.  We will closely monitor conditions
for any changes.

One other area of concern is the potential for localized urban and
small stream flooding over the Southern and Eastern Ozarks as QPF
values through Tuesday are forecast highest in that area...(two to
almost three inches)...and soil moisture is closer to normal.
After this initial frontal system pushes well east of the area
Tuesday...expect only a brief dry period until the next round of
precipitation (lighter) approaches from the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

As this upper trof digs southward toward the Gulf Coast...a speed
max will develop over northeast Texas early Wednesday and track
northeastward into Arkansas.  A surface low associated with this
speed max will track into the mid Mississippi Valley.  This system
will give much of the Southern and Eastern Ozarks another shot at
some stable rainfall on its western flank.  Far western portions of
the CWA may remain mostly dry.

The period form Thursday through Saturday will be characterized by
Northwest upper flow and cooler temperatures.  Highs will generally
run in the upper 50s and 60s with overnight lows in the 40s.  Two to
three embedded weak shortwaves will bring periods of cloudiness and
very light rain to the area.  QPF values will be on the order of a
few hundredths of an inch or so as Gulf moisture is not in play here.

An upper ridge will push eastward from the Rockies and build into
the Central CONUS on Sunday into Monday with high temperatures
returning to normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

Cold front will continue to slowly push east into and across the
area this afternoon/tonight. Storms were starting to increase in
intensity/coverage over the next few hours and should start
affecting JLN near the onset of the 18z tafs and SGF/BBG by
19-21z. MVFR conditions will be prominent within the convection
but could see some IFR conditions within the heaviest rain areas.
Later tonight, thunderstorms will push east of the area and will
be left with some stratiform rain and northwest surface winds
along with MVFR ceilings. Rain should end by 12z at the TAF sites.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Colucci
LONG TERM...Colucci
AVIATION...Lindenberg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
310 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-132015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
310 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
  COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
  THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND WIND GUSTS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
  LOCATIONS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
  WHICH MAY POSE A LIMITED LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK DESPITE
  RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE LOCALIZED
  HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ACROSS
  THE SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING EAST OF A COLUMBUS
  KANSAS TO NEVADA LINE AND WEST OF A BRANSON TO OSAGE BEACH LINE
  THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

LINDENBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
253 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HAIL             4 SW LAMAR              37.45N 94.33W
05/12/2014  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             2 N GOODMAN             36.77N 94.40W
05/12/2014  E0.88 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             1 N GOODMAN             36.76N 94.40W
05/12/2014  E0.88 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDOOLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
344 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             2 S NEOSHO              36.84N 94.37W
05/12/2014  E0.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LDOOLEY