Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms to Continue this Afternoon and
Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

The storms that developed this morning continue to track northeast
into central Missouri this afternoon. Instability and shear remain
high enough that supercells are occurring. The main risk with this
activity will be hail to the size of golf balls, with a limited
tornado risk. These storms will continue to pose a severe risk
through the afternoon hours and will push north of the area by
late this afternoon.

A dry line is pushing into extreme southeastern Kansas and eastern
Oklahoma this afternoon and storms are starting to develop along
this boundary. MLCAPE values of greater than 2000 J/kg and deep
layer shear will support these storms becoming supercells. Steep
mid level lapse rates will support a large hail risk with hail to
the size of tennis balls possible. Currently, surface winds are
veered and low level shear weak, but with strong low level CAPE values
there is still a tornado risk level. There are questions on if the
low level shear can increase late this afternoon into this
evening. With surface winds veering, will limit low level shear. If
surface winds can back, then this will increase the tornado potential.

Clouds are thinning quickly behind the current convection over
central Missouri and temperatures are warming into the 70s as
dewpoints increase into the middle 60s. Feeling that there will
be enough recovery ahead of the cold front for additional severe
risk across the eastern Ozarks. The cold front will begin to
increase its movement to the east this afternoon and the storms
are expected to form into a line near the highway 65 corridor or
east this evening, then sweep off to the east through the rest of
the evening. Winds in excess of 70 mph and embedded tornadoes will
be possible within any line or line segments this evening. This
activity will end from west to east this evening exiting the area
around midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A cold front is pushing into the area. An area of convection that
developed this morning is pushing across central Missouri this
afternoon and will push out of the area by the late afternoon
hours. The cold front is pushing into the western portions of the
forecast area and additional storms are starting to develop across
extreme southeastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma. The atmosphere
is becoming unstable ahead of the front and deep layer shear will
support supercells. These storms will track east across the area
and form into a line of storms near the Highway 65 corridor and
will then sweep through the rest of the area and exit to the west
near midnight. Please refer to the Mesoscale discussion above for
more details on the severe potential this afternoon and evening.

Surface high pressure and a cooler airmass will begin to build into
the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Cooler conditions will spread into the area behind this system
Friday into the weekend. Lows will likely drop to near the
freezing mark Friday night into Saturday. A couple of upper level
disturbances will track through the area late this weekend into
the middle of next week which will bring some chances for light
rain and keep the cool conditions in place across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Windy conditions exist out ahead of the approaching cold front.
Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms have developed over
the past couple of hours in the warm sector. Conditions are
generally VFR falling to MVFR near the thunderstorms.

These conditions will continue through the afternoon into the
evening with the approach of the cold front. Stronger storms could
produce large hail and winds in excess of 50 kts.

Front is expected to move through the aerodromes after 02z. As the
front passes...winds will veer to a west to northwest direction
and diminish slightly. In addition...expect MVFR ceilings between
06-14z. After 14z...ceilings should improve to VFR with winds
increasing and becoming gusty from the northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Wise
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gaede

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
212 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041915-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
212 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  SOUTHERLY NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE
  EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

  THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS AREAS
  NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS ACTIVITY
  WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI PUSHING
  OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN A
  THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
  A LIMITED RISK FOR TORNADOES.

  SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
  BY MID AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE
  ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
  TRACK INTO WESTERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
  EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN A THREAT FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE
  OF TENNIS BALLS...WIND DAMAGE...AND A FEW TORNADOES. INDICATIONS
  ARE THAT THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY THEN INCREASE FROM LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
  HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THIS MAY
  INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER TRACK TORNADOES.

  FROM EARLY TO MID EVENING...STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO START
  CONGEALING INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE. THIS TRANSITION IS
  EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65
  CORRIDOR. ONCE THIS OCCURS...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT
  LINE WINDS OVER 70 MPH WILL INCREASE. THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
  TORNADOES WITHIN ANY LINE SURGES OR BOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AS
  THIS LINE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS. THIS
  LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS
  BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...BRISK AND GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
  ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
  WEATHER CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT RECEIVED
  AS MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
429 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             LOWRY CITY              38.14N 93.73W
04/03/2014  M1.50 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
430 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     HAIL             LOWRY CITY              38.14N 93.73W
04/03/2014  M1.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
431 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             1 N CROSS TIMBERS       38.04N 93.23W
04/03/2014  M1.75 INCH       HICKORY            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     HAIL             8 NE EDWARDS            38.22N 93.07W
04/03/2014  E1.25 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0454 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     LAURIE                  38.20N 92.83W
04/03/2014                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MTERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
507 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0429 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CROSS TIMBERS       38.05N 93.23W
04/03/2014                   HICKORY            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1-2 FOOT TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0500 PM     HAIL             LOWRY CITY              38.14N 93.73W
04/03/2014  E1.75 INCH       ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

MTERRY