Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

782 
WGUS73 KSGF 031131
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MOC015-131-141-031500-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140403T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
631 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
BENTON...MORGAN AND NORTHERN MILLER COUNTIES...

AT 630 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED 
AREA. WATER WAS REPORTED OVER THE ROAD BETWEEN TIPTON AND SYRACUSE.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...COLE CAMP...ELDON...LAKELAND...
LINCOLN...STOVER...TRUMAN STATE PARK...VERSAILLES AND WARSAW.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE HH IN TUSCUMBIA...
ROUTE V AT DEER CREEK NEAR HASTAIN...
ROUTE DD AT KNOBBY CREEK 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EDWARDS...
ROUTE BB AT GABRIEL CREEK NEAR FLORENCE...
HIGHWAY 52 AT COON CREEK 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUSCUMBIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9283 3844 9263 3843 9241
      3834 9240 3834 9220 3823 9220 3820 9296
      3823 9295 3819 9300 3822 9299 3827 9307
      3814 9308 3815 9350 3849 9352 3852 9351
      3851 9330 3854 9329 3854 9308 3869 9305

$$

509 
WGUS73 KSGF 031459
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
959 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

MOC015-131-141-031505-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-140403T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON MO-MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
959 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 AM CDT FOR BENTON...
MORGAN AND NORTHERN MILLER COUNTIES...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING 
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO RESIDUAL FLOODING FROM HEAVY 
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.  

RAPID RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER 
LOW LYING AREAS WILL REMAIN FLOODED THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9283 3844 9263 3843 9241
      3834 9240 3834 9220 3823 9220 3820 9296
      3823 9295 3819 9300 3822 9299 3827 9307
      3814 9308 3815 9350 3849 9352 3852 9351
      3851 9330 3854 9329 3854 9308 3869 9305

$$

TERRY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

...Episode of Severe Thunderstorms Later This Afternoon and This
Evening...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

Ingredients are coming together for what will likely be a widespread
severe weather event from the Interstate 70 corridor in Missouri and
Illinois...southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. The main
threat area includes all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme
southeastern Kansas.

As of 3 AM...a warm front was located from just north of Nevada to
around Rolla. North of this front, elevated convection has been
ongoing for much of the night from the Interstate 70 corridor,
south towards Clinton and Sedalia. A few of these storms have
produce large hail. South of the front, we have seen isolated to
widely scattered elevated convection try and get going as a broad
low level jet has developed across the Ozarks.

As we get into the predawn and after dawn hours, that warm front
will continue to lift north as strong height falls begin to
overspread the Plains. Mesoscale models continue to indicate some
potential for scattered elevated convection across the Ozarks as
smaller scale enhancement to the broad low level jet work over the
region. Otherwise, the main play for convection will continue to
be up across northern and central Missouri. A low end severe hail
threat will continue with any storms that do develop as lapse
rates remain steep above an elevated mixed layer (EML).

As we get into later this morning and this afternoon, upper level
energy will pivot and emerge across the central High Plains. As this
happens, surface low pressure will track from south-central Kansas
up into northwestern Missouri by 00 UTC. South of this low, a cold
front will overtake a dry line across eastern Kansas with a dry line
then trailing into eastern Oklahoma. That EML will initially keep
the atmosphere capped along these features into early this
afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, those height falls and what
should be at least some partial sunshine should be enough to
effectively lift/erode the cap.

Supercell thunderstorm development is still the preferred convective
mode as wind fields will carry these cells off the front/dry line.
Hail to the size of tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes will
all be threats. There are a few tidbits worth mentioning regarding
the tornado threat. First off, the last several runs of the RAP and
to some point the NAM indicate some sort of dry line bulge coming
out of northeast Oklahoma. If this were to happen, we may see a
localized increase in low level shear which would enhance tornado
potential. Additionally, the threat for tornadoes will tend to
increase very late this afternoon and this evening as a veered low
level jet develops over the region. There will be the potential for
a few longer track tornadoes...especially if the GFS is correct in
bringing stronger mid-level jet energy out into the warm sector.

As we get into this evening, that front will begin to accelerate to
the east as that short wave trough takes on a neutral and then
negative tilt. Models have slowed the forward speed of the front
ever so slightly (which has been a trend since Wednesday). This may
allow discrete supercells to last a bit longer as convection
approaches the Highway 65 corridor. We do believe that these storms
will eventually transition into a quasi-linear convective system
somewhere around or just east of the Highway 65 corridor. Once the
transition takes place, the straight-line wind threat will ramp up
with widespread damaging winds quite possible. There will also
continue to be a tornado threat with any localized surges/bows
within the line. This activity is expected to exit the eastern
Missouri Ozarks somewhere in the 11 PM to 2 AM window.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

A blustery day is then on tap for Friday as brisk west-northwest
winds develop. Temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in
the 50s. High pressure will then settle right over the region Friday
night allowing temperatures to approach, or even fall below the
freezing mark. It also looks like a good setup for frost. Those that
have gotten a jump on the growing season may want to take these
items into consideration.

Global models then continue to bring a broad trough of low pressure
into the region from late this weekend through at least next
Tuesday. Unsettled weather will be the result with several
opportunities for rain showers. Below normal temperatures will
also prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

Pilots can expect an increasing risk for thunderstorms mainly to
the north of the terminal sites tonight and across the entire
region by Thursday afternoon and evening.

Areas of MVFR ceilings will impact the area particularly north of
a warm front draped across the Ozarks and near any storms.
Visibilities will also be lowered in areas of heavy rainfall.

Low level wind shear will develop late tonight into early
Thursday morning.

Severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening as a
cold front moves across the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
145 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040645-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
145 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PRE DAWN
  HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF
  U.S. 54. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.

  IF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME
  AREAS...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  SOUTHERLY NON THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE THEN
  EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM SOUTH
  CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARDS THE KANSAS CITY AREA.

  CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR
  LARGER...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP LATE
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR
  WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WOULD THEN TRACK EAST TOWARDS
  THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR AROUND MID EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE
  THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
  STARTING AROUND MID EVENING WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS THEN
  QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS FROM LATE THURSDAY
  EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
  LINE OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FAIRLY
  WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND CONTAIN EMBEDDED TORNADOES.

  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT JUST MINOR CHANGES IN THE
  EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
  CHANGES TO EXPECTATIONS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER
  POTENTIAL LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY. THUS...INTERESTED
  PARTIES ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER OUTLOOKS FROM
  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

  BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...BRISK AND GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST
  WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
  ELEVATED AND PERHAPS LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
  CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ALL
  THAT MUCH RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
  TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
  OZARKS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

BOXELL