Wind Advisory 20, NWS Seattle, WA

984 
WWUS76 KSEW 041058
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
258 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2014

WAZ001-503-506-507-510-041200-
/O.CAN.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141104T1400Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIDAY HARBOR...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...
LYNDEN...MOUNT VERNON...ANACORTES...SEDRO-WOOLLEY...BURLINGTON...
EVERETT...EDMONDS...LYNNWOOD...MARYSVILLE...ARLINGTON...
PORT TOWNSEND...PORT LUDLOW
258 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH
WILL DIMINISH TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH BY MID MORNING. 

$$

WAZ516-517-041200-
/O.CAN.KSEW.WI.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-141104T1200Z/
NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEAH BAY...LA PUSH...FORKS...HOQUIAM...
ABERDEEN...WESTPORT...OCEAN SHORES
258 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COAST.

A STRONG WARM FRONT HAS MOVED INLAND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH ALONG THE COAST. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL EASE TO WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 15
MPH BY SUNRISE.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
714 PM PST MON NOV 3 2014

CORRECTED TYPO IN THE SYNOPSIS.

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER A
MINOR LULL LATER ON TUESDAY...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS LOW WILL MOVE
BY TO THE NORTH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND FOR DRY AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON THE COAST
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AROUND 12Z. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE COAST AND OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THERE WILL
BE A BURST OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND THEN A RIDGE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND DRY THINGS OUT SOMEWHAT. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE COAST LATE IN
THE MORNING WITH RAIN SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE RAIN AT TIMES UNTIL ITS PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS VANCOUVER
ISLAND THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY OR
WINDY CONDITIONS. NEITHER THE SYSTEM TONIGHT/TUESDAY NOR THE ONE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING ANY HIGH
WIND IN CURRENT MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH HIGHS 55-60 AND LOWS 45-55. BURKE

.LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FRIDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY. THIS BEING NOVEMBER THE RIDGE WILL
BRING SUNNY SKIES TO SOME AREAS BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME FOG AND
A TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS LIKELY TO SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS 50-55 AND LOWS IN
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. THE FOG MAY NOT CLEAR IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS
AND THESE PLACES WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER HIGHS.

THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE THE EURO
MOVES A WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
OPTED FOR CHANCE POPS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ON
THE COAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN OVER THE OLYMPICS
COULD BRING THE SKOKOMISH RIVER TO FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH.

THERE WILL ALSO BE HEAVY RAIN IN PLACES OVER THE CASCADES. IN
PARTICULAR SEVERAL MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW ABOUT 12 HOURS OF HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE TOLT RIVER WATERSHED TONIGHT. THIS RIVER RESPONDS
QUICKLY TO HEAVY RAIN. RIVER MODELS NOW SHOW SATURATED SOILS OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON SO IT SEEMS LIKELY MOST OF THE RAIN WILL
IMMEDIATELY RUN OFF INTO THE TOLT RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE TOLT RIVER.

ANY FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL PROBABLY BE
MINOR. OTHER RIVERS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY BUT FLOODING IS UNLIKELY
ON ANY OTHER RIVERS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

IN ADDITION...RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS CREATED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE TO LANDSLIDES IN WESTERN WASHINGTON...ACCORDING TO THE
USGS LANDSLIDE HAZARDS PROGRAM. THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WET WEATHER THAT PERSISTED DURING OCTOBER
CONTINUES INTO EARLY NOVEMBER. BURKE

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
THROUGH WESTERN WA...THEN A COLD FRONT SHIFTS INLAND. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS WESTERLY. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION. GUSTY S/SE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTH INTERIOR. SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE CASCADES TUE
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS. 33

KSEA...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. 33

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD WILL BRING SOUTHERLY GALES TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. GALES ARE FORECAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND WEST
ENTRANCE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-END GALES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE EAST ENTRANCE...ADMIRALTY INLET AND NORTHERN INLAND WATERS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INLAND
ON TUE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE WATERS. ANOTHER WARM
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY WED...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ON THU.
HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH MASON AND KING COUNTIES.
PZ...GALE WARNING COAST...WEST AND EAST STRAIT OF JUAN DE
     FUCA...ADMIRALTY INLET...NORTHERN INLAND WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CENTRAL STRAIT...PUGET SOUND AND HOOD
     CANAL.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

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