Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
912 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH WESTERN WA OVERNIGHT WITH
POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN WA. SHOWERS ARE MAINLY OVER
KING/SNOHOMISH COUNTIES FROM A PUGET SOUND CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS
MORNING. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IS COVERAGE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE INLAND. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
WEATHER LATE WED MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN MORE RAIN TOWARD THE
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN /RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH/.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER WET PERIOD
OF WEATHER AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...FOLLOWED
BY THE COLD FRONT. 33

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WILL LINGER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. A SECOND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ECMWF
CONTINUING TO HINT AT A DRYING TREND AND A CHANGE TO MORE
RIDGING...WHILE THE GFS40 KEEPS SHOWERS AND ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING REMAINS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF
THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE NEAR OSO WHERE A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THIS RIVER AS A
RESULT OF WATER POOLED BEHIND THE DEBRIS DAM THAT PARTIALLY BLOCKS
THE RIVER.

RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHTS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RISES OF 0.5 TO 1 FT ON THE NORTH FORK OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY COULD GIVE
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. IF THIS OCCURS...THE NORTH FORK OF THE
STILLAGUAMISH RIVER IN THE SLIDE AREA WILL SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RISES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE RIVER FORECASTS.

AT 9 AM...THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH NEAR ARLINGTON WAS
AT 4.6 FT...OR 2900 CFS. THE NORTH FORK OF THE STILLAGUAMISH RIVER
NEAR OSO WAS AT 216.7 FT AT 2100 CFS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THE AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA WITH CONSIDERABLE CLEARING ELSEWHERE.

THE FORECAST IS FOR SHOWERS DECREASING THIS MORNING THEN INCREASING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPS OVER CURRENTLY
CLEAR AREAS. CEILINGS ARE NONEXISTENT OR VFR OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR SOME 2.5-3.5K FT CEILINGS FROM
PIERCE COUNTY NORTH. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY LATE MORNING.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. VFR CEILINGS AFTER 18Z. LIGHT WIND
BECOMING S 6-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHB

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT WILL CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS STRONGER WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS POSSIBLE OVER MOST WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH FORK OF THE
     STILLAGUAMISH RIVER EAST OF THE SR 530 LANDSLIDE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COAST AND CENTRAL AND EAST STRAIT.

&&

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

FOR AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION PLEASE SEE
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML   (ALL LOWERCASE)

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