Small Craft Advisory 272, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 PM PST SUN DEC 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS ON TAP FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IN THE OLYMPIC
MOUNTAINS...ALONG THE COAST AND HOOD CANAL...AND IN THE NORTH
CASCADES. IT WILL BE WINDY AT TIMES ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE NORTH
INTERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES THROUGH WRN WA TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A BREAK MONDAY MORNING IN THE PRECIP AND THEN HEAVIER RAIN
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE IN THE OLYMPICS...BUT THE COAST AND HOOD CANAL
AS WELL AS THE NORTH CASCADES SHOULD ALSO GET AROUND FIVE INCHES OF
RAIN FROM MON NITE THROUGH THE DAYTIME WED. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY WHICH COULD FLOOD AS EARLY
AS LATE MON NIGHT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN THE RAINFALL TUE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL WAVE ARRIVES...AND THE
SECOND SYSTEM MAY PUSH A HANDFUL OF RIVERS ON THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
AND IN THE NORTH CASCADES ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY GALES AT TIMES FOR
THE COAST AND NORTH INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM...THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO CA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...LEAVING WRN WA NORTH OF THE JETSTREAM AND
IN A COOLER SHOWERY REGIME. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN
MASON COUNTY WHICH SHOULD REACH FLOOD STAGE LATE MON NIGHT AND MAY
SEE MAJOR FLOODING TUESDAY. OTHER RIVERS THAT COULD FLOOD ARE THE
BOGACHIEL...ELWHA...SATSOP...NOOKSACK...SKAGIT...AND STILLAGUAMISH.
FLOODING ON THESE RIVERS SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL TUE NITE OR WED. THE
TOTAL 48HR RAINFALL SHOWN IN THE LATEST UW WRGFS FOR 4PM MONDAY TIL
4PM WED SHOWS 5-11 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE OLYMPICS...AROUND 5 INCHES
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND HOOD CANAL AND THE NORTH CASCADES...AND
1 OR 2 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF WRN WA. BOTH MOUNT RAINIER AND
THE MOUNT BAKER AREA COULD GET UP TO TEN INCHES OF RAIN. TWO
CONSPICUOUS RAIN SHADOWED AREAS...ONE NNE OF MT RAINER AND THE OTHER
IN THE TYPICAL SEQUIM RAIN SHADOW...GET LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...APPROACHING FRONT OVER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND MONDAY MORNING. MUCH STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIR
MASS STABLE.

MOSTLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING
WITH LOWER CEILINGS...NEAR 5000 FEET...ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY FOG
OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1-3 MILES.
CEILINGS LOWERING OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE DISSIPATING
FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT STILL REMAINING AOA 5000 FEET EXCEPT ALONG
THE COAST. CEILINGS REMAINING AOA 5000 FEET INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

KSEA...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CEILINGS
SLOWLY LOWERING EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT REMAINING AOA 5000 FEET
LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON
COMBINED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL GIVE
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES INLAND EARLY MONDAY.

A SERIES OF STRONG FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET AND THE NORTHERN
INLAND WATERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GALE WATCH UP FOR THESE AREAS. IF
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS OVERNIGHT WILL UPGRADE
SOME IF NOT ALL OF THE AREAS TO A GALE WARNING WITH THE 3 AM
PACKAGE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL EASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST AND EAST ENTRANCES
      TO THE STRAIT.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
     GALE WATCH EAST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT AND NORTHERN INLAND
      WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

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