River Flood Warning 3, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
900 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY...ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. A WEAKER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE WET AND WINDY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
MOVES INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND RAIN WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
WINDY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
AT THE SURFACE ON MONDAY.

WIND...LAST NIGHT THERE WAS HIGH WIND ON THE COAST AND IN THREE OF
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES. MOST OTHER ZONES HAD WIND JUST BELOW
THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH WERE
COMMON WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THERE HAVE BEEN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES
IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WIND THOUGH IT IS STILL BREEZY. SOUTHERLY GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING...THEN TURN MORE ONSHORE THIS EVENING.
MORE HIGH WIND IS FORECAST ON THE COAST AND IN THE ADMIRALTY INLET
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL WATCH THE GRADIENTS CAREFULLY IN CASE
HIGH WINDS START TO OCCUR IN OTHER ZONES. LARGE SCALE MODELS LAST
NIGHT SHOWED KPDX-KBLI GRADIENTS PEAKING AROUND 13 MB THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING BUT THE LATEST RUNS ARE ABOUT 12 MB. WILL STICK WITH THE
WARNING IN THE 3 ZONES FOR NOW WITH A WIND ADVISORY ELSEWHERE.

RAIN...HEAVY RAIN ENDED LATE LAST NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSED TO
THE EAST. PATTERN IS SHOWERY NOW AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES ON THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND MAY BE
INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM STEADY RAIN IN SOME PLACES. MAY TWEAK THE
FORECAST A BIT TO START ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER.

SNOW...TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY ROSE ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL MOUNTAIN
SITES IN THE WARM SECTOR LAST NIGHT. NOW TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING
AND SNOW IS FALLING. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE CASCADES THROUGH 4 AM SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS
SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

COASTAL FLOODING...BIG WAVES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE COAST
TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE BIGGEST WAVES...24-27 FEET...WILL NOT
COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES WHICH ARE IN THE MORNING. THE
PLAN IS TO CONTINUE WITH A HIGH SURF WARNING FOR THE BEACHES AND A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WAVES OCCASIONALLY OVERTOPPING THE LEVEES
AND PUTTING A LITTLE WATER IN THE STREETS OF WESTPORT AND OCEAN
SHORES. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE PAC NW FROM WED THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY. WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WITH LOW TEMPS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30S. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE RIDGE WILL EXIT EAST FRI
NIGHT OR SAT WITH RAIN RETURNING TO WESTERN WA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...BIG STORY IS THE COLD FRONT MOVED EAST OF THE CASCADES
THIS MORNING AND THE ASSOCIATED RAIN HAS ENDED. COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS UNDERWAY WITH A MORE SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN SPREADING ONSHORE
AND SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW THE PASSES TODAY.

OLYMPIC AND COAST 24 HR RAIN AMOUNTS WERE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE.
THE CASCADES GENERALLY RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWLANDS VARIED
FROM ABOUT A HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES IN THE NON-RAIN SHADOWED AREAS
INCLUDING COCORAHS REPORTS IN THUS FAR.

ONLY A COUPLE OF FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MINOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME - THE BOGACHIEL AND SKOKOMISH RIVERS. THE BOGACHIEL WAS
CRESTING AT THIS WRITING WITH THE SKOKOMISH EXPECTED TO CREST LATER
THIS MORNING. KEEPING AN EYE ON THE STILLAGUAMISH TOO THOUGH LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL CREST UNDER FLOOD STAGE TODAY.

WITH THE WARMER RAIN OVER AND SHOWERS WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS IN PLAY
TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAN TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OTHER
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WILL COME ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE
AS HEAVY BUT COULD KEEP SOME RIVERS RUNNING HIGH FOR AWHILE LONGER.
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BEGINNING ABOUT TUESDAY.
BUEHNER/FELTON

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY WITH WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT. A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

KSEA...CEILINGS AROUND 6000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME LOWER CEILINGS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15
TO 30 MPH WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING...EASING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL
BRING GALES TO ALL WATERS. THERE WILL ALSO BE LARGE SWELL ARRIVING
AT THE COAST THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCHNEIDER

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST AND FOR THE
     ADMIRALTY INLET AREA.
     WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST LOWLAND ZONES.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE CASCADES.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE OLYMPICS.
     HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST.
     FLOOD WATCH FOR NUMEROUS COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
      SATURDAY NIGHT.
PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
924 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 WNW BREMERTON        47.63N 122.88W
01/11/2014  M3.00 INCH       KITSAP             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS AT SEABECK.

&&

TBUEHNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
954 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E NOON                48.80N 122.37W
01/11/2014  M44 MPH          WHATCOM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0317 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WSW BELFAIR           47.43N 122.89W
01/11/2014  M3.04 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 1 PM YESTERDAY.

&&

GRUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
956 AM PST SAT JAN 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N POTLATCH            47.40N 123.14W
01/11/2014  M3.75 INCH       MASON              WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

GRUB