High Wind Watch 6, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
240 PM PST WED NOV 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
OF DRY WEATHER NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WA TONIGHT AND
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY ACROSS WESTERN WA THURSDAY AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
STRONG WINDS ON THE COAST. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
CAUSE THE RIVERS TO RISE THU BUT PCPN SHOULD NOT BE SGFNT ENOUGH FOR
ANY RIVERS TO APPROACH FLOOD STAGE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY OUGHT TO BE A DECENT DAY WITH
SOME SUNSHINE AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY SHOULD ALSO BE DRY...ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG COULD HANG OVER THE LOWLANDS FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD FOR A COUPLE
OF DRY DAYS MON AND TUE. THE GFS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS SOME RAIN
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A 5600M 500MB LOW MANAGES TO
MOVE RIGHT THROUGH THE RIDGE AND OVER WA ON TUESDAY AND THEN
UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE WITH PRECIP OVER MAINLY CALIF AND ORE WED. THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS FOR NOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRETTY WET...SO THE RIVERS
WILL STOP RECEDING...BUT IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET ANY RIVERS
BACK UP NEAR FLOOD STAGE. FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THERE WILL BE A DRY
PERIOD FRI AND SAT...AND AGAIN MON AND TUE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WESTERN WA
TONIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND
STABLE. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THU MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INLAND THU MORNING. THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. 33

KSEA...LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...THEN SHOWERS THU MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES IN. MVFR CIGS LIKELY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND 15-21Z. 33

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND THU MORNING BRINGING
GALES TO WESTERN WA. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THU
AFTERNOON...THEN EASE THU EVENING. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION FRI AND SAT FOR GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SHIFT S/SE INTO WESTERN WA ON SUN. 33

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...HIGH WIND WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST LATE TNGT AND THU.
PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

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