High Wind Warning 11, NWS Seattle, WA

398 
WWUS76 KSEW 100442
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
842 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

WAZ001-503-506-510-516-517-101245-
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.W.0011.141210T0600Z-141211T0000Z/
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.A.0009.141211T1200Z-141212T0600Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIDAY HARBOR...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...
LYNDEN...MOUNT VERNON...ANACORTES...SEDRO-WOOLLEY...BURLINGTON...
PORT TOWNSEND...PORT LUDLOW...NEAH BAY...LA PUSH...FORKS...
HOQUIAM...ABERDEEN...WESTPORT...OCEAN SHORES
842 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDING...FORKS...ABERDEEN... 
  WESTPORT...HOQUIAM... WESTERN WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT...THE 
  SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA INCLUDING 
  WHIDBEY ISLAND AND PORT TOWNSEND. 

* TIMING...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS 
  EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER 
  POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM COULD BRING HIGH WINDS THURSDAY 
  THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL RISE LATE THIS EVENING TO 
  30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... 
  THEN GRADUALLY EASE. ANOTHER STORM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT 
  COULD PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 
  MPH. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE LARGE TREES...
  ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. 
  POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AND MAY BE WIDESPREAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT.

&&

$$

WAZ504-507-509-511>515-555-556-558-559-567>569-101245-
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.A.0009.141211T1200Z-141212T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLYMPIA...LACEY...TUMWATER...
CENTRALIA...TOLEDO...EVERETT...EDMONDS...LYNNWOOD...MARYSVILLE...
ARLINGTON...TACOMA...LAKEWOOD...PUYALLUP...SUMNER...HOODSPORT...
BRINNON...MONTESANO...SEQUIM...PORT ANGELES...JOYCE...
CLALLAM BAY...GOLD BAR...ENUMCLAW...NORTH BEND...BUCKLEY...
BELLEVUE...KIRKLAND...REDMOND...ISSAQUAH...SEATTLE...SHORELINE...
FEDERAL WAY...KENT...BREMERTON...SILVERDALE...MARBLEMOUNT...
CONCRETE...SNOQUALMIE PASS...DARRINGTON...INDEX...RANDLE...
PACKWOOD...ASHFORD...MORTON
842 PM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE...SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...
  TACOMA... OLYMPIA...BREMERTON...EDMONDS...AND BREMERTON. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON 
  THURSDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY EXPAND NORTHWARD TO REMAINING 
  AREAS. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE 
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  65 MPH COULD DEVELOP...INCLUDING THE PUGET SOUND I-5 URBAN 
  CORRIDOR. IN THE MOUNTAINS...GUSTS TO OVER 75 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE...EXCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WHICH MAY REMAIN 
  SOMEWHAT SHELTERED. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE LARGE TREES...
  ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. 
  POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AND MAY BE WIDESPREAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT. FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

$$

999 
WWUS76 KSEW 101229
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
429 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

WAZ001-503-506-510-516-517-110030-
/O.EXT.KSEW.HW.A.0009.141211T1700Z-141212T0600Z/
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-141211T0000Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIDAY HARBOR...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...
LYNDEN...MOUNT VERNON...ANACORTES...SEDRO-WOOLLEY...BURLINGTON...
PORT TOWNSEND...PORT LUDLOW...NEAH BAY...LA PUSH...FORKS...
HOQUIAM...ABERDEEN...WESTPORT...OCEAN SHORES
429 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDING...FORKS...ABERDEEN... 
  WESTPORT...HOQUIAM... WESTERN WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT...THE 
  SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA INCLUDING 
  WHIDBEY ISLAND AND PORT TOWNSEND. 

* TIMING...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
  AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM COULD BRING HIGH
  WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL RISE LATE THIS EVENING TO 30
  TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... THEN
  GRADUALLY EASE. ANOTHER STORM THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING COULD
  PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE LARGE TREES... 
  ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. 
  POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AND MAY BE WIDESPREAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT.

&&

$$

WAZ504-507-509-511>515-555-556-558-559-567>569-110030-
/O.EXT.KSEW.HW.A.0009.141211T1700Z-141212T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLYMPIA...LACEY...TUMWATER...
CENTRALIA...TOLEDO...EVERETT...EDMONDS...LYNNWOOD...MARYSVILLE...
ARLINGTON...TACOMA...LAKEWOOD...PUYALLUP...SUMNER...HOODSPORT...
BRINNON...MONTESANO...SEQUIM...PORT ANGELES...JOYCE...
CLALLAM BAY...GOLD BAR...ENUMCLAW...NORTH BEND...BUCKLEY...
BELLEVUE...KIRKLAND...REDMOND...ISSAQUAH...SEATTLE...SHORELINE...
FEDERAL WAY...KENT...BREMERTON...SILVERDALE...MARBLEMOUNT...
CONCRETE...SNOQUALMIE PASS...DARRINGTON...INDEX...RANDLE...
PACKWOOD...ASHFORD...MORTON
429 AM PST WED DEC 10 2014

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE...SEATTLE...BELLEVUE... 
  TACOMA... OLYMPIA...BREMERTON...EDMONDS...AND BREMERTON. 

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON THURSDAY
  MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS
  HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING COMMUTE.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 
  65 MPH COULD DEVELOP...INCLUDING IN THE PUGET SOUND I-5 URBAN 
  CORRIDOR. IN THE MOUNTAINS...GUSTS TO OVER 75 MPH ARE 
  POSSIBLE...EXCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WHICH MAY REMAIN 
  SOMEWHAT SHELTERED. 

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE LARGE TREES... 
  ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. 
  POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AND MAY BE WIDESPREAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT. FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

$$

771 
WWUS76 KSEW 102319
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
319 PM PST WED DEC 10 2014

WAZ001-503-506-510-516-517-110600-
/O.EXT.KSEW.HW.A.0009.141212T0000Z-141212T1200Z/
/O.CON.KSEW.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-141211T0000Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIDAY HARBOR...BELLINGHAM...BLAINE...
LYNDEN...MOUNT VERNON...ANACORTES...SEDRO-WOOLLEY...BURLINGTON...
PORT TOWNSEND...PORT LUDLOW...NEAH BAY...LA PUSH...FORKS...
HOQUIAM...ABERDEEN...WESTPORT...OCEAN SHORES
319 PM PST WED DEC 10 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDING...FORKS...ABERDEEN...
  WESTPORT...HOQUIAM...WESTERN WHATCOM...WESTERN SKAGIT...THE SAN
  JUAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADMIRALTY INLET AREA INCLUDING WHIDBEY
  ISLAND AND PORT TOWNSEND.

* TIMING...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS 
  AFTERNOON. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORM COULD BRING HIGH 
  WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL GRADUALLY EASE TONIGHT.
  ANOTHER STORM THURSDAY EVENING COULD PRODUCE SOUTH WINDS OF 30
  TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE LARGE TREES... 
  ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. 
  POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AND MAY BE WIDESPREAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT.

&&

$$

WAZ504-507-509-511>515-555-556-558-559-567>569-110600-
/O.EXT.KSEW.HW.A.0009.141212T0000Z-141212T1200Z/
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-
HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-
EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-
EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-
SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-
CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OLYMPIA...LACEY...TUMWATER...
CENTRALIA...TOLEDO...EVERETT...EDMONDS...LYNNWOOD...MARYSVILLE...
ARLINGTON...TACOMA...LAKEWOOD...PUYALLUP...SUMNER...HOODSPORT...
BRINNON...MONTESANO...SEQUIM...PORT ANGELES...JOYCE...
CLALLAM BAY...GOLD BAR...ENUMCLAW...NORTH BEND...BUCKLEY...
BELLEVUE...KIRKLAND...REDMOND...ISSAQUAH...SEATTLE...SHORELINE...
FEDERAL WAY...KENT...BREMERTON...SILVERDALE...MARBLEMOUNT...
CONCRETE...SNOQUALMIE PASS...DARRINGTON...INDEX...RANDLE...
PACKWOOD...ASHFORD...MORTON
319 PM PST WED DEC 10 2014

...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE...SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...
  TACOMA...OLYMPIA...BREMERTON...EDMONDS...AND BREMERTON.

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS ARE NOW POSSIBLE FROM LATE THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65
  MPH COULD DEVELOP...INCLUDING IN THE PUGET SOUND I-5 URBAN
  CORRIDOR. IN THE MOUNTAINS...GUSTS TO OVER 75 MPH ARE
  POSSIBLE...EXCLUDING THE MOUNTAIN PASSES WHICH MAY REMAIN
  SOMEWHAT SHELTERED.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG CAN TOPPLE LARGE TREES... 
  ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. 
  POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AND MAY BE WIDESPREAD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING
WIND EVENT. FORECASTS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE
MERCER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
940 AM PST TUE DEC 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAINY
AND WINDY WEATHER TO WESTERN WASHINGTON THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES. THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY COULD POTENTIALLY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON INCLUDING PUGET SOUND.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SORRY FOR THE DELAY...BUSY MORNING. STORM NUMBER ONE
BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS AND THE S/SW FACING SLOPES OF
MAINLY THE N CASCADES. THE OLYMPICS RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WITH WIDESPREAD 4 INCH AMOUNTS BUT LOCALLY 6 INCHES IN THE PAST
12-18 HOURS. THE N CASCADES RECEIVED ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DURING THE SAME PERIOD. MUCH LESS FELL OVER
THE LOWLANDS WITH LACK OF OROGRAPHICS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH
EXCEPT CLOSER TO 3 NEAR THE COAST. AMOUNTS OVER THE OLYMPICS ARE
ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY PUSH THE BOGACHIEL AND ELWHA TO FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. REFER TO THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENT AND HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR UP TO DATE FLOOD
INFORMATION.

THE FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING ONTO THE COAST AND WILL PUSH INLAND
LATER THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES. WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG ALONG THE FRONT
WITH SUSTAINED 10-MIN WIND OF 61 MPH AT DESTRUCTION ISLAND AND GUSTS
TO 61 AT SANDY POINT AND ALSO INLAND NEAR FERNDALE. ADVISORIES WERE
ALL UPGRADED TO WARNINGS THROUGH MIDDAY...EXCEPT WRN SKAGIT COUNTY
WHICH REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. BREEZY WINDS WILL PICK UP IN PUGET
SOUND BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE
NEEDED WITH GUST PERHAPS TO 30 MPH.

TURNING TO STORM NUMBER TWO CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING OUT NEAR 140 W/
AND ROUGHLY 40-45 N. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE A DISTINCT WARM
FRONTAL WAVE OUTRUNNING THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING AS IT REACHES OUR AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
WITH REGARD TO EXPECTED ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN OR WINDS.
GENERALLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT W/ 850 MB SWLY WINDS
TO 85 KT. THIS SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST AS MUCH RAIN OVER THE
OLYMPICS AND N CASCADES AS FELL THE PAST 18 HOURS. THIS SECOND BATCH
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OF MORE CONCERN FOR RIVERS RUNNING OFF THE N
CASCADES SUCH AS THE NOOKSACK AND SKAGIT. CONCERNS FOR RIVERS OFF
THE OLYMPICS ALSO CONTINUE. WITH THE 850/925 MB FLOW NEAR 90
KT...GUSTS TO AT LEAST 70 MPH COULD SURFACE NEAR THE COAST AND N
INTERIOR. WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADING THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
FOR THESE AREAS. AGAIN...PUGET SOUND WILL BE BREEZY BUT NOT A
FAVORED AREA FOR STRONG WINDS GIVEN THE SE GRADIENTS. GUSTS TO 30
OR 35 MPH MIGHT STILL BE POSSIBLE.

STORM NUMBER THREE IS POTENTIALLY THE BIG KAHUNA OF THE SYSTEMS THIS
WEEK. MODELS HAD BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT THE 12Z
GFS40/WRF-GFS AND NEW 12Z CANADIAN SHOW A POSSIBLE MAJOR WINDSTORM
TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE PAC NW INCLUDING WRN WA AND PUGET SOUND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IF THE NEW 12Z WRF-GFS MESO MODEL
CORRECT...HIGH WINDS WOULD AFFECT AREAS FROM EUREKA CA NWD THROUGH
WRN OREGON AND WRN WA. UNFORTUNATELY NOT ALL MODELS ARE ON BOARD.
THE NAM12 RUNS THE LOW UP PUGET SOUND BUT WEAKENS IT CONSIDERABLY
WITH LESS IMPACT. THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS SPLIT AND WEAK BUT THE 12Z IS
STRONGER. AND THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF TRENDED A BIT STRONGER AND
ALSO TRACKING NEAR PUGET SOUND BUT STILL NOT AS MUCH GRADIENT AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED. WILL BE VERY INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION TRENDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE WITHIN THE 36-48 HOUR
TIME WINDOW SO A WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY IF CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS COULD POTENTIALLY
BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT FOR MUCH OF WRN WA INCLUDING THE METRO
CORRIDOR. MERCER

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A MUCH MORE BENIGN PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS WITH THE
SNOW LEVEL AROUND 4000 FT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON
SATURDAY...THEN PROGRESS EAST OF THE CASCADES ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
AND SPLITTING SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THAT WEAK
FRONT SHOULD MOVE INLAND ON MONDAY.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A VERY WET PATTERN
WITH HIGH SNOW LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...POSING A
THREAT OF FLOODING FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS. A FLOOD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SKOKOMISH RIVER. ADDITIONAL FLOOD
WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING FOR OTHER OLYMPIC
PENINSULA RIVERS.

THE FIRST OF SEVERAL VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION HAS BROUGHT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE OLYMPIC COAST AND
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...1 TO 2 INCHES AROUND MOUNT BAKER...AND GENERALLY
UP TO 1 INCH ELSEWHERE IN THE CASCADES. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
ANOTHER 1 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES TODAY AS THIS
FEATURE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS...AND ANOTHER 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AROUND MOUNT
BAKER. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE IN THE 7000 TO 8000 FT RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL
PASS THROUGH THE INTERIOR BY 20Z. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
ON WED. THE AIR MASS IS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...IT WILL
STABILIZE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

CEILINGS OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE 3500-5000 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING
WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500 FT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THEN WILL
IMPROVE BACK TO 4000 TO 6000 FEET THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. ON THE COAST CEILINGS AROUND 025 WILL
LOWER TO 010 WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND WILL
IMPROVE TO 025 ON WED.

STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WINDS AT 2000 TO 3000 FEET...50-60
KNOTS...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY 20Z.
STRONG WIND AT 020 OF 55-60KT WILL REDEVELOP ABOUT 12Z WED AND
CONTINUE THROUGH WED GIVING MORE AREAS OF LLWS. ALBRECHT

KSEA...CEILINGS NEAR 3500 FEET WILL OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO AROUND
2500 FEET ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT BACK TO AROUND
050. EXPECT PERIODS OF -RA WITH VIS TO AROUND 5SM AT TIMES. WIND AT
2000-3000 FT SSW 50-55KT UNTIL 20Z GIVING LLWS. LLWS WILL REDEVELOP
12Z WED THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AGAIN. ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL
PASS THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS MIDDAY. STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GALE WARNINGS AT THE ENTRANCES
TO THE STRAIT...THE NORTHERN INLAND WATERS AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR PUGET SOUND/HOOD CANAL AND THE
CENTRAL STRAIT. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
TO INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON WED.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
WINDIER...WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN
EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS...EXCEPT PUGET SOUND AND THE CENTRAL
STRAIT...AND A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THAT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY WITH A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS SHOW A DANGEROUS STORM
TRACK WITH A DEEP...BUT WEAKENING...LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS
DURING THE DAY THU. THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER THAN THE GFS BUT HAS
TRENDED A BIT STRONGER. THE 00Z CANADIAN SOLUTION IS COMPLETELY
SPLIT AND HAS NO BIG LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA. WILL ADJUST FORECASTS
AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST INCOMING GUIDANCE. GALE OR STORM WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

COMBINED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE 18 TO 24 FOOT RANGE
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS. BAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.

CONCERNING COASTAL FLOODING...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND LOW BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS CAUSING MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW TO
OCCUR OVER THE INLAND WATERS DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
TIDE GAGES SHOWED VERY MINOR OVERFLOW THIS MORNING IN THE PUGET
SOUND AREA. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR ON WED...THOUGH TIDE
LEVELS MAY BE ABOUT 0.1 FT OR SO HIGHER THAN THIS MORNING. THE
AMOUNT OF STORM SURGE TO BE EXPECTED ON THU WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK...STRENGTH...AND TIMING OF THE LOW THAT IS FORECAST BY MANY
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.  ALBRECHT

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...FLOOD WATCH/WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST THROUGH NOON
     TODAY.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ADMIRALTY INLET...SAN JUAN ISLANDS...AND
     WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY THROUGH 100 PM TODAY...
     WIND ADVISORY WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY THROUGH 100 PM TODAY.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR LOW LYING AREAS ALONG THE INLAND
     WATERS THROUGH NOON TODAY.
     HIGH WIND WATCH NORTH AND CENTRAL COAST...NORTHWEST INTERIOR
     THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
PZ...STORM WARNING COAST.
     GALE WARNING ENTRANCES TO THE STRAIT...CAMANO ISLAND TO POINT
     ROBERTS AND ADMIRALTY INLET.
     GALE WARNING COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AND CENTRAL
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH TO SEVERE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.
     STORM WATCH COAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
855 AM PST TUE DEC 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E ANACORTES           48.49N 122.61W
12/09/2014  M54 MPH          SKAGIT             WA   PUBLIC

            SUSTAINED WIND 24 MPH WITH GUST TO 54 MPH.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
921 AM PST TUE DEC 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  5 SSE DEMING            48.76N 122.18W
12/09/2014  E45.00 MPH       WHATCOM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            35 TO 45 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
950 AM PST TUE DEC 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 ENE FORKS             47.96N 124.35W
12/09/2014                   CLALLAM            WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ON A HOUSE.

&&

JSMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1027 AM PST TUE DEC 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    3 NW BELLINGHAM         48.77N 122.51W
12/09/2014                   WHATCOM            WA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED WAVES CRASHING OVER THE BULKHEADS ON THE NORTH
            SIDE OF BELLINGHAM BAY. ALSO REPORTED WAVES CRASHING OVER
            BULKHEADS AT POINT ROBERTS.

&&

JSMITH