Gale Warning 45, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
925 PM PDT THU JUN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL OR WESTERLY ON SUNDAY...
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE TO STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE
PRES GRADIENT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH CASCADES AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE ON THE COAST ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL DROP INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW...PLENTY OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS...AND A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD GIVE A MOSTLY DRY DAY TO THE AREA WITH ANY SHOWER
THREAT LIMITED TO THE CASCADES. THEN TOWARD THE TAIL END OF NEXT
WEEK...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING FLOW
WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE AREA FOR COOL CONDITIONS AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD WAS RATHER LARGE AND THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN PUSHING BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN
INTO LATER IN THE WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST
IS NOT VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN
WASHINGTON TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON. SURFACE
GRADIENTS WEAKER TONIGHT VERSUS LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH OVERALL
TREND OF SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN LESS
STRATUS COVERAGE FRIDAY MORNING THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNING.
BEST CHANCE FOR STRATUS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST 12Z-18Z. CEILINGS
WITH THE STRATUS WILL BE NEAR 1000 FEET.

KSEA...STAYING WITH THE IDEA OF NO STRATUS AT THE TERMINAL FRIDAY
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS 4 TO 8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FRIDAY MORNING. FELTON

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PATTERN HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC AND LOWER PRESSURE INLAND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE THE NORTHWEST WIND IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS AND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. PUGET SOUND WILL HAVE A
TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN NORTHERLY BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FELTON

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER FROM 10 NM OUT TO
     60 NM AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

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