Wind Advisory 15, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Ashe County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bland County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Radford, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Summers County, WV

139 
WWUS71 KRNK 140217
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1017 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...

.SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. COMBINE THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOIL THAT IS SATURATED
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...AND WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW
TREES TO BE BLOWN DOWN.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009-010-012-015-WVZ042-043-508-141030-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.141014T0400Z-141015T0400Z/
ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-WYTHE-GRAYSON-MERCER-SUMMERS-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...TAZEWELL...
MARION...BLAND...WYTHEVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...
TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1017 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE NORTHERN 
  MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...GUSTS MAINLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS CLOSE 
  TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD 
  TO A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY ONTO POWER 
  LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

095 
WWUS71 KRNK 140750
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...

.SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COMBINE THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOIL THAT IS
SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...AND WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS
FOR A FEW TREES TO BE BLOWN DOWN.

VAZ007-009-015-WVZ042-141600-
/O.UPG.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KRNK.HW.W.0005.141014T0750Z-141015T0400Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. THE WIND
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS...VERY GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL LEAD TO DOWNED
  TREES. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES...FALLEN
TREES...MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.

&&

$$

NCZ001-018-VAZ010-012-WVZ043-508-141600-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
ASHE-WATAUGA-BLAND-WYTHE-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...BLAND...
WYTHEVILLE...HINTON...HIX...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
350 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
  NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
  A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

246 
WWUS71 KRNK 141424
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1024 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...

.SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COMBINE THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOIL THAT
IS SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...AND WE HAVE THE
INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW TREES TO BE BLOWN DOWN.

VAZ007-009-015-WVZ042-142300-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
1024 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS...VERY GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL LEAD TO DOWNED 
  TREES. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES...FALLEN
TREES...MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.

&&

$$

NCZ001-018-VAZ010-012-WVZ043-508-142300-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
ASHE-WATAUGA-BLAND-WYTHE-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...BLAND...
WYTHEVILLE...HINTON...HIX...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1024 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD 
  TO A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER 
  OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

978 
WWUS71 KRNK 141816
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
216 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...

.MULTIPLE WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. COMBINE THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOIL THAT IS SATURATED
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...AND WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW
TREES TO BE BLOWN DOWN.

VAZ007-009-015-WVZ042-150230-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
216 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS...VERY GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL LEAD TO DOWNED 
  TREES. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES...FALLEN
TREES...MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.

&&

$$

VAZ011-013-014-016>020-024-035-150230-
/O.EXB.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.141014T2200Z-141015T1000Z/
GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...RADFORD...PULASKI...
BLACKSBURG...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...AMHERST
216 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
  A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER OUTAGES.
  HIGHER RIDGELINES WILL BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

NCZ001-018-VAZ010-012-WVZ043-508-150230-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
ASHE-WATAUGA-BLAND-WYTHE-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...BLAND...
WYTHEVILLE...HINTON...HIX...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
216 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
  A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER OUTAGES.
  HIGHER RIDGELINES WILL BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

380 
WWUS71 KRNK 150219
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1019 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...

.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
COMBINE THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOIL THAT IS SATURATED OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION...AND WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW TREES TO BE
BLOWN DOWN.

VAZ007-009-015-WVZ042-150400-
/O.CON.KRNK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
1019 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS...VERY GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TIMING...UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL LEAD TO DOWNED 
  TREES. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES...FALLEN
TREES...MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...AND DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE UNFASTENED
ITEMS...SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND DECK FURNITURE...INDOORS.

&&

$$

NCZ001-018-VAZ010-012-WVZ043-508-150400-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
ASHE-WATAUGA-BLAND-WYTHE-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...BLAND...
WYTHEVILLE...HINTON...HIX...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1019 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD 
  TO A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER 
  OUTAGES. HIGHER RIDGELINES WILL BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

VAZ011-013-014-016>020-024-035-151000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T1000Z/
GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...RADFORD...PULASKI...
BLACKSBURG...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...AMHERST
1019 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD 
  TO A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER 
  OUTAGES. HIGHER RIDGELINES WILL BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

978 
WWUS71 KRNK 150402
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1202 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...

.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
COMBINE THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOIL THAT IS SATURATED OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION...AND WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW TREES TO BE
BLOWN DOWN.

VAZ007-009-015-WVZ042-150515-
/O.EXP.KRNK.HW.W.0005.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-GRAYSON-MERCER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...INDEPENDENCE...
WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP
1202 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.

$$

NCZ001-018-VAZ010-012-WVZ043-508-150515-
/O.EXP.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T0400Z/
ASHE-WATAUGA-BLAND-WYTHE-SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...BOONE...BLAND...
WYTHEVILLE...HINTON...HIX...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1202 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS WEST OF INTERSTATE 77 ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.

$$

VAZ011-013-014-016>020-024-035-151000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T1000Z/
GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...RADFORD...PULASKI...
BLACKSBURG...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...AMHERST
1202 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...THE MOUNTAIN 
  EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF 
  NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD 
  TO A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER 
  OUTAGES. HIGHER RIDGELINES WILL BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

387 
WWUS71 KRNK 150521
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...STRONG WINDS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...

.GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
COMBINE THE GUSTY WINDS WITH SOIL THAT IS SATURATED OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION...AND WE HAVE THE INGREDIENTS FOR A FEW TREES TO BE
BLOWN DOWN.

VAZ011-013-014-016>020-024-035-151000-
/O.CON.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T1000Z/
GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...RADFORD...PULASKI...
BLACKSBURG...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...AMHERST
121 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHLANDS OF VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE BLUE RIDGE
  PARKWAY.

* HAZARDS...GUSTY WINDS.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD 
  TO A FEW TREES BEING BLOWN OVER...SOME POSSIBLY SOME POWER 
  OUTAGES. HIGHER RIDGELINES WILL BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS OF 46 TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES AND CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. UNFASTENED
ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE CANS AND LAWN FURNITURE SHOULD BE MOVED
INDOORS.

&&

$$

547 
WWUS71 KRNK 150820
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
420 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

.STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE HAVE 
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT A HAZARD.

VAZ011-013-014-016>020-024-035-150930-
/O.CAN.KRNK.WI.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-141015T1000Z/
GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...RADFORD...PULASKI...
BLACKSBURG...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...
COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...AMHERST
420 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG
WEATHER DISTURBANCE HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE REGION AND NO LONGER
POSE A HAZARD THREAT.

$$

WERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
158 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH AND A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

BIGGEST ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA OF THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AND WEST OF BLUEFIELD WV TO MARION VA. HERE
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
THAT IS HELPING TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE THE
TEMPERATURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON TO PRIMARILY
THOSE AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE. HAVE ALSO LOWERED EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN AREAS
CLOSEST TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS OF 945 AM EDT MONDAY...

ONLY SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
CURRENTLY. LIGHT AMOUNTS WERE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND A SMALL AREA WAS HEADING NORTH OF BLACKSBURG...ALONG
THE WV/VA BORDER. HRRR AND RNK-WRF ARW SOLUTIONS OFFER VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THAT VALUE IS NOT ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A FORECAST
THAT REFLECTS SLIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH THE BEST FOCUS STILL ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. WHILE THE TRAJECTORY ANGLE IS NOT THE BEST FOR
UPSLOPE...AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE...EVEN A COMPONENT TO UPSLOPE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN AT LEAST THIS
REGION.

FORECAST SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE VALUES OFFER A
SOLUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION...AND ALSO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE RE-INTRODUCED THIS
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES STILL IS A BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY.
HAVE NOT MADE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING
THIS IN TERMS OF CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES GIVEN NO ANOMALIES AT
THIS POINT TO SUGGEST THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE ON TRACK.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS WE
AWAIT THE APPROACH OF THE INTENSE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THEN
KICKING IT EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z
TUESDAY. A STRONG (591 DM) UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WHICH ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN PREVENTING THE
RAPID EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCING THE MOIST
ATLANTIC AND GULF INFLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COOL-
AIR DAMMING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST TODAY
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR
TODAY IS ALWAYS A TRICKY ASPECT OF FORECASTING IN THIS AREA WITH
SKY COVER AND HENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES RIDING ON THE OUTCOME.
PICKED A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPS BUT EDGED TOWARD SOMEWHAT
SLOWER EROSION WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS RANGING FROM UPPER 60S NW TO
MID-70S SE AND ALSO FAR WEST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL ERODE MOST
QUICKLY UNDER THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. H85 WINDS IN THAT
SAME FAR WESTERN AREA (MAINLY TAZEWELL...SMYTH..MERCER COUNTIES)
WILL BE INCREASING FROM NEAR 25 KT EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE 45-50
KT RANGE BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH SOME OF THIS WINDS MIXING DOWN DURING
THE 06-12Z PERIOD. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE BEYOND THE 12Z
CUT-OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF THE INTENSE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SLATED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO TUE. EACH
MODEL RUN FOR ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION INTO OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...LIKELY OWING TO THE IMPRESSIVE DIGGING/DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO A 125+KT UPPER JET AND 60-70KT LLJ. IN
ESSENCE...THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS NEARLY 36 HOURS SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED TWO DAYS AGO AT
THIS TIME. NOW...INSTEAD OF A 12Z TUE TIME FRAME...WE ARE LOOKING
AT A 12Z WED TO 00Z THU TIME FRAME FOR THE MAIN EFFECTS.

THUS FOR TUE...THE WEDGE WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY ERODE...BUT AGAIN
NOT LIKELY AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. PERSISTENT
UPSLOPE AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
ALLEGHANY FRONT AND ALONG UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MON AND TUE...HOWEVER...WILL BE THAT AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL U.S...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY AMPLIFY THROUGH THE SE STATES INTO NC/VA. THIS WILL PUT
MUCH OF THE CWA...EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT...IN A WARM SECTOR
WHICH SHOULD REDUCE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...ANY PERSISTENCE OF THE WEDGE
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH WILL PROMOTE CONTINUATION OF UPSLOPE
CLOUDS AND LIGHT -SHRA AS NOTED. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHC
TO LOW LIKELY POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS...AND INSTABILITY WILL
BEGIN TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSRA WEST OF I-77 BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN ORDER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 18Z WED WITH A SCENARIO OF A VERY SLOWLY
MOVING NEARLY MERIDIONAL OR SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED NARROW BAND OF
INTENSE CONVECTION TRANSLATING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC. IN FACT...IT COULD TAKE
UNTIL LATE WED FOR THE CONVECTION TO REACH EASTERN VA...SO HAVE
THE PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS A GOOD 12 HOURS FROM THAT PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT THE VERY STRONG LLJ
AND PROGGED SHEAR ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE MODE SUGGEST A QLCS IS
MOST PROBABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL YIELD MARGINAL AMOUNTS
OF LIGHTNING...BUT POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS WHICH CAN RESULT IN
LOCALIZED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF SW VA INTO A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH A 5 PERCENT RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.
THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE WITH THE STRONG LLJ TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH LESS THREAT FURTHER EAST AS THE JET LIFTS
NORTH OUT OF THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF AND
BECOMING INCREASINGLY BAROTROPIC.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH ANY TRAINING OF ECHOES
WITHIN THE SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED BAND...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING MUCH
PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...HAVE SEEN
1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. PWATS ARE WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 1.5+ RANGE AS THE CORE OF THE EVENT MOVES
THROUGH. THE FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ADDRESSED FURTHER IN THE
HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

ANOTHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE
USUAL FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHEAST WV AND SOUTHWEST VA AS THE LLJ
TRANSLATES THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE DELAYED TIMING OF THIS
TO AFT 12Z TUE WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW/STRONG LLJ
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH/WIND ADVISORY WOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL 3RD PERIOD. FURTHERMORE...MODELS HAVE SHOWN A RELUCTANCE TO
BRING POTENTIAL WINDS GUSTS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SFC. FEEL THAT
A WIND ADVISORY WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE WARRANTED AND WIND GUSTS
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD MAY REACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN PARTS
OF MERCER AND TAZEWELL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...NO OTHER OFFICES ARE ON
BOARD WITH A WATCH AND TOO FAR OUT FOR AN ADVISORY...SO NO NPW
WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS POINT. AS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...FIRST BECAUSE OF LINGERING
EFFECTS OF THE WEDGE AND THEREAFTER BECAUSE OF THE CLOSED...COLD
CORE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW...CYCLONIC FLOW...AND POTENTIALLY
HIGHLY VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FROM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE PIEDMONT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A MODEL BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS OPPOSED TO HINGING THE TEMPERATURES ON ANY ONE MODEL. TUE
SHOULD YIELD NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WEST TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EAST...GIVEN EROSION OF THE WEDGE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WED
SHOULD ALSO YIELD NEAR MAX TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIN
TEMPS...AGAIN PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EARLY WED...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-
OCTOBER. THU...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
AGAIN...NO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE +4 TO +6C
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP CLOSED
UPPER LOW THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...FINALLY LIFTING OUT
FRI-SAT. SCT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNDER/NEAR THE UPPER LOW WITH A
NOTABLE DIURNAL INCREASE AS DAYTIME HEATING CREATES RELATIVELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE COLD CORE LOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE IS
PROGGED TO FINALLY LIFT THE UPPER LOW OUT THU AFTERNOON...BUT IN
SO DOING WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION...EVEN INTO THE PIEDMONT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...FINALLY SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS INDICATED WITH
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE...EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER A
WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROF SCOOTS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

BEST DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...SO OTHER THAN A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT
WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR WITH PASSAGE OF DRY
COOL FRONT...AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED POST
FRONTAL UPSLOPE SHOWERS REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS IN SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOST NOTABLY IN
WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE ALONG WITH MAINLY LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FOR LIGHT
FOG AND SOME DRIZZLE. OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEDGE...ALONG
AND WEST OF A KBLF-KMKJ LINE...SCT-BKN MVFR BASED CLOUDS WERE THE
NORM AS INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW IS HELPING TO ERODE THE CLOUD
COVER. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE EROSION OF THE WEDGE ON ITS
EASTERN AND WESTERN FLANKS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...PROGGED
TO REACH 40 TO 50 KTS AT 850 MB BY 12Z/8AM TUESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A VERY GENEROUS MOISTURE FETCH INTO THE REGION THAT WILL
YIELD UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN AREAS NEAREST THE CREST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. VSBYS AND CIGS WILL ALSO TREND LOWER IN THIS AREA.
THE INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE WEDGE WILL YIELD LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT ALL BUT PERHAPS KBLF. HERE...OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WEDGE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MIXED.

THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY THE LATE MORNING
AS BETTER MIXING...AND EROSION OF THE WEDGE TAKES PLACE.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A VERY STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
LOOK FOR A SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET TO REACH 50 TO 60 KTS IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND CONCURRENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION BUT
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER
OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW SETTLES OVER PENNSYLVANIA.

BY FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH AS OUR
NEXT GREAT LAKES TROUGH DEEPENS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE UPCOMING EVENT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO COMPONENT WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS ALL RIVER BASINS MAINLY AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY AND PERSISTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. QPF FROM HPC DURING
THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH THE TYPICAL
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENTS. GEFS AND NAEFS ENSEMBLE PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS RFCS STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE QPF WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES IN NEARLY ALL BASINS
BUT SOLUTIONS CLUSTERING MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. THE
RIVER FORECAST ENSEMBLES RESULTING FROM THIS QPF GENERATE A LOT OF
FORECASTS NEAR OR JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE WITH A FEW MEMBERS
REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND MAYBE ONE OR TWO OUTLIERS AT
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY SERIOUS
RIVER FLOOD EVENT AT THIS POINT BUT CERTAINLY WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. ALSO A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO CONSIDER AS PWATS REACH 2 TO
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE MID-OCTOBER KRNK RAOB CLIMATOLOGY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES AT KRNK AND
SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT ROANOKE. WITH THE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH
RAINFALL AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED 4
TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS A FEW SMALL BASINS AND POCKETS OF RAPID
RESPONSE FLOODING SEEM TO BE A REASONABLE BET. HPC CURRENTLY
SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUE AND FOR MOST THE
REMAINDER 12Z TUE TO 12Z WED. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR IN THE FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES RESULTING FROM
RAINFALL SO FAR IN OCTOBER WHICH HAS REACHED 4 TO 6 INCHES IN
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND NEW RIVER BASINS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PC
NEAR TERM...DS/PC
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WERT
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
505 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ011>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-WVZ043-
044-507-508-141100-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
WESTERN GREENBRIER-
505 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND WV.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN ON
SATURATED GROUND WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WEDNESDAY MAY BE POSSIBLE.

VAZ007-009-010-WVZ042-141100-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-MERCER-
505 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG RIDGES AND BETWEEN MOUNTAIN PASSES
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BE IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS COLD
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN ON SATURATED GROUND WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

RAB