Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
415 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MOUNTAINS
TODAY...BEFORE DRIFTING INTO NORTH CAROLINA AND STALLING OVERNIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COMBINATION OF SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROF HAD TRIGGERED A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NEW RIVER VALLEY INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION AS THE LEADING WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH INTO NORTH
CAROLINA AND STALLS. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A LOW ALONG THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT THAT PUSHES THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...THEN BRING BETTER PROBABILITIES BACK IN BY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. WITH LITTLE DROP IN DEW
POINTS TONIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD. IF CLEARING
DOES OCCUR...MAY BE ADDING FOG BACK INTO THE FORECAST IN LOCATIONS
THAT HAD RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO LIMIT
RISE IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
THURSDAY. STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO BE COVERING THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE BLACKSBURG CWA AT THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY IN THIS
AREA. THIS REGION WILL ALSO FALL UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHT
EAST...PLACING THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EAST OF THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THIS AREA WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DYING BOUNDARY. A
SECOND AREA FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH AN UPSLOPE FLOW AND A SFC BOUNDARY FORECAST BY
THE GFS/NAM/SREF/ECMWF NEAR THE VA/WV BORDER.

AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFT
EAST...THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY SHOULD BE LESS...AS WELL
AS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS WITH HAS PERFORMED THE BEST IN OUR AREA OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES EAST/SOUTHEAST BRINGING WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THIS
POINT...THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
AREA...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE.

BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS SURGES INTO OUR AREA
WHICH WILL INCREASE COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS. BUT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED RECENTLY...A DEEP
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION SCATTERED.

TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A BROAD UPPER TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE HELPS
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE 06Z
GFS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. USING A BLEND OF THESE
SOLUTIONS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BEFORE FALLING BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COMMS ISSUES REMAIN AT KDAN DESPITE AN INTERMITTENT RETURN OF
OBSERVATION DATA. AMD NOT SKED CONTINUED IN THE TAF.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AT 1PM/17Z
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE FROM
20Z/4PM UNTIL SUNSET. HAVE USED THIS TIMING FOR THE KDAN/KLYH
TAFS...OTHERWISE HAVE THUNDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORTS
UNLESS RADAR INDICATES AN IMMINENT THREAT. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS
WILL BE COMMON WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...AS WELL AS MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

DRIER AIR COMES IN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY
LATE TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO HAVE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...ANY CLEARING THAT OCCURS OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF FOG. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH VISIBILITIES WILL BE
RESTRICTED BUT HAVE LEFT LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE KLWB TAF.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY WITH
IMPULSES RIDING ALONG IT. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY
FOR KDAN/KLYH ON THURSDAY. A LOWER PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTH.

MOISTURE AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE
END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. OTRW PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE LATE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS ESPCLY
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND WHERE EARLIER AFTERNOON RAINFALL OCCURRED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE CONTINUES WITH KDAN ASOS NOT TRANSMITTING.
THE FAA IS AWARE OF THE OUTAGE AND WILL BE WORKING ON IT...BUT NO
ESTIMATED TIME OF WHEN IT WILL BE WORKING AGAIN.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...AMS/PH/WERT
AVIATION...AMS/JH
EQUIPMENT...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-100800-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
347 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING STRONG TO LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS
MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-100800-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
347 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE CALLANDS           36.86N 79.50W
07/09/2014                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON ANDERSON ROAD NEAR BEARSKIN CREEK

&&

PW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
406 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NCZ018>020-092100-
WATAUGA NC-YADKIN NC-WILKES NC-
406 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  EXTREME EASTERN WATAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHWESTERN YADKIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR HALLS MILLS...TO MAPLE SPRINGS...TO DARBY...
  MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NORTH WILKESBORO...
  WILKESBORO...
  WILBAR...
  BOOMER...
  AND RONDA.

LAT...LON 3604 8139 3607 8141 3607 8144 3609 8145
      3610 8152 3614 8163 3629 8137 3634 8130
      3619 8073 3605 8086 3606 8099 3603 8106
      3603 8116 3604 8120 3600 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 274DEG 18KT 3618 8145

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
416 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

VAZ013-014-016-017-092100-
FLOYD VA-CARROLL VA-MONTGOMERY VA-PULASKI VA-
416 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 414 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM FROM NEAR CHRISTIANSBURG...TO
  COPPER VALLEY...TO GRAHAM FORGE...MOVING NEAR CHILDRESS...MOVING
  TO THE EAST AT 30 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PILOT...
  INDIAN VALLEY...
  ALLISONIA...
  FLOYD...
  AND WILLIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3687 8075 3689 8075 3695 8081 3715 8046
      3701 8012 3668 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 279DEG 25KT 3705 8047

RAB