Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
506 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST PASSING
THOUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4:00 PM WEDNESDAY...

MODEST MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW OF 35-60KT EXISTS FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY AND
CONTROL APPALACHIANS...NORTH OF AN ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM NRN MEXICO/SRN PLAINS TO THE DEEP SOUTH. PRIMARY SYNOPTIC
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM DELMARVA WWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO KS
AND HAS A NUMBER OF PERTURBATIONS/WAVES ALONG IT...THE MOST
PRONOUNCED OF WHICH IS A 1004MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA... SUPPORTED BY A CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 50-60KT SPEED MAX. THE FRONTAL LOW/WAVE WILL
DEVELOP EAST TO OH/WV THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TRAILING FRONT SINKS
GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS THE OH RIVER.

FORECAST STORM EVOLUTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS
COMPLICATED BY REMNANTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MVC
WHICH DISSIPATED OVER THE ERN OH VALLEY EARLIER IN THE DAY AND IS
NOW GROWING LEGS AGAIN PER AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS RENEWED DEEP
CONVECTION WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY MORPH
INTO MCS WHICH WILL RAKE OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
A BREAK BEFORE THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY BEFORE 06Z/2AM...WILL FOCUS ON
DEVELOPMENT OF MCS OVER WEST VIRGINIA WHICH ACCORDING TO THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF MODEL SHOULD CROSS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
ONE HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE WEAKENING. INITIALLY SOME OF THESE
STORM CELLS WILL BE DISCRETE AND MAY EXHIBIT ROTATION RESULTING IN
A TORNADIC THREAT. ONCE THE STORM CELLS CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL
LINE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO BACK BUILD INTO
KY/TN PER HIGHER CAPE AVAILABLE OVER THE TN VALLEY AND FED BY A
30-40 KT LLJ. THIS WILL RESULT IN SVR THREAT PROPAGATING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR NW NC COUNTIES
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH THE MCS BECOMING MORE OF A LINEAR FEATURE
WITH TIME...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE STORM AXIS COULD BECOME
ORIENTED WHERE TRAINING STORM CELLS WOULD RESULT IN REPEAT HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGHER CONCERN FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN DIVIDE PRIMARILY FROM CHARLESTON WV WESTWARD INTO
KY...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SORT OF FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES FOR
OUR CWA ATTM.

ONCE THE MCS PLAYS OUT OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY MAY OR MAY NOT REVEAL
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE STORM THREAT. IF THE OUTFLOW CLEARS
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST WILL BE GREATLY SIMPLIFIED WITH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL
MAINTAIN CHC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY...BUT TREND
SHOULD BE FOR CLEARING AS WE TRANSITION INTO A DIFFERENT AIRMASS
THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK VERY MILD WITH DEWPOINTS KEEPING
READINGS ABOVE 60. WENT BLO MAV GUIDANCE THURSDAY WITH THE
THINKING THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS AND LESS
SOLAR INSOLATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SEVERAL WAVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL IT FROM TEXAS
EASTWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE FRONT TO CROSS
THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
HOW FAR NORTH DOES THE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION SPREAD. THE NAM
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE CONVECTION IN
CONTRAST TO THE GFS/ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES PIVOT MOISTURE
NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT. KEPT SOME LIGHT
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOWER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM
THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT WILL RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO OUR
AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT...EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST MAY HINDER CONVECTION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE EAST.  AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES DURING THE EVENING...MAY SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVIER RAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL VARY FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTH PULLING A
WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE COLD
FRONT GENERALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE SLIDE EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOW
PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO TENNESSEE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT WEDNESDAY..

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS AVIATION PACKAGE DUE TO LACK OF CLEAR
CUT EVOLUTION WITH ANTICIPATED UPSTREAM CONVECTION. STORMS
CURRENTLY FIRING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE PIEDMONT
WHERE MORNING SUN HAS ENHANCED INSTABILITY. MOST LIKELY THAT KDAN
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS RIGHT AT ISSUANCE TIME SO WILL HAVE A ONE
HOUR GROUP OFF THE BAT TO HANDLE THIS. OTHERWISE...IT LOOKS LIKE
VCTS IS THE WAY TO GO UNTIL CONVECTION CAN GET MORE ORGANIZED.
MESO MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING A BIT AND SEEM TO FAVOR BRINGING
THINGS THROUGH IN SURGES. WILL ATTEMPT TO TIME THE INITIAL SURGE
FROM NW TO SE BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. WILL INDICATE NW GUSTS
ANTICIPATING LINEAR OUTFLOW FOR ABOUT A 3 HOUR PERIOD. THIS IS
ATTEMPTING TO INDICATE THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR ENHANCED
WINDS...ACTUAL PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SHORTER. FROPA
DOES NOT LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. BUT AM INDICATING
THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW. FROPA WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK
SO WILL KEEP SHOWERS LINGERING. ALSO ANTICIPATE SOME FOG FORMATION
LATE MAINLY AT KBCB AND KLWB. ALSO BELIEVE GOOD MIXING BEHIND
FRONT TOMORROW SHOULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME GUSTY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

MAINLY VFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL FOG LATE NIGHT FOG
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND SUB VFR WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FAA COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES HAVE NOT BEEN FULLY RESOLVED AT
LYNCHBURG. USE THE LYH OBSERVATION WITH CAUTION.

THE THUNDER SENSOR AT BLUEFIELD IS NOT OPERATING. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL NOT BE REPORTED IN THE BLF OBSERVATION UNTIL THIS EQUIPMENT
HAS BEEN REPAIRED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...DS/MBS/WP
EQUIPMENT...AMS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
427 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>015-018>020-WVZ042>045-050830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
427 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. A
BETTER THREAT OF STORMS ARRIVES TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-050830-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-CARROLL-FLOYD-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
427 AM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. LATE TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF STORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT TIMING BEING LATE AT NIGHT COULD LESSEN THE THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
744 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

VAZ034-045-050015-
BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-
744 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  WEST CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 744 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUDDLESTON...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20
  MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EVINGTON...
  HUDDLESTON...
  AND TIMBERLAKE.

LAT...LON 3715 7952 3725 7953 3734 7924 3716 7919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 261DEG 19KT 3721 7946

DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

VAZ007-010-WVZ042-050045-
TAZEWELL VA-BLAND VA-MERCER WV-
749 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  NORTHWESTERN BLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 749 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WELCH...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 25
  MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROCKY GAP...
  BLUEFIELD...
  BURKES GARDEN...
  MATOAKA...
  AND CLEAR FORK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8151 3726 8150 3725 8148 3728 8141
      3731 8140 3732 8137 3742 8131 3741 8129
      3742 8128 3745 8129 3730 8098 3705 8128
      3720 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 293DEG 22KT 3736 8159

RS