Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY
THE WEEKEND...USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FALLS IN THE WARM SECTOR...AS A SFC
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED FROM OHIO TO THE WV PANHANDLE INTO MARYLAND. SPC
MESOANALYSIS PAGE INDICATES BEST DCAPES IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...AND WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY GAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO CREATE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS HELPING
TO SPARK THE STORMS...AND AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES EAST...COMBINED
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

ANOTHER...STRONGER...WAVE PUSH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
THURSDAY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROF IN THE FAR EASTERN
U.S...LEAVING US UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP
PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT AND BRING A
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SREF/NAM/GFS/RAP MODELS ALL GENERATING
LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY DAWN
THURSDAY.

IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL BE FOUND FOR
MOST AREAS EAST OF I-77 THURSDAY...KEEPING INSTABILITY DOWN.
GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AND TRY TO FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH
GOING BELOW GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...ESPECIALLY AT LYH.

UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...KEPT HIGH POPS IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE WEDGE...PRIMARILY WEST OF I-77.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL MODELS STILL FAVORING WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT-FRIDAY
BUT WITH INVERTED TROUGH AND 8H FRONT TO FOLLOW THROUGH BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS THIS PACKAGE...AND WILL SEE
HIGHER POPS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOG IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AS SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

GOING INTO FRIDAY...THERE STILL REMAINS SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG
OVER THE MTNS AND WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS OVER THE MTNS WITH
LOWER THREAT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WEDGE ACROSS THE EAST. KEPT TEMPS
COOLER FRIDAY IN THE WEDGE AND CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND
FOOTHILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE LYH/FVX AREA...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...TO NEAR
80 IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND FAR SW VA VALLEYS.

ANOTHER HIGH WILL WORK SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO
SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. MAIN TRACK OF SHORTWAVE WILL STAY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEW
NEW ENGLAND STATES. MAINLY DRY BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE NC MTNS SAT AFTERNOON. WILL BE SEASONAL WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S CWA WIDE.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WORKS INTO NY/PA WEDGING SOUTHWEST
OVER THE VA/NC PIEDMONT. SHOULD BE A COOLER NIGHT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NC MTNS WITH MODELS SHOWING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. WILL SEE SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPS DROPPING TOWARD THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS
WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

GOING TO BE HEADING BACK TO SUMMER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGE SITUATES ITSELF OVER THE WRN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BY
MIDWEEK...MODELS BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AS TROUGH DIGS ACROSS
SRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WORKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

THE PATTERN SUGGESTS NO ORGANIZED SYSTEMS TO AFFECT US...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH UPSTREAM ESPECIALLY TUE-WED AS THE 5H FLOW FLATTENS
FOR FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVES. OVERALL WILL BE TYPICAL SUMMER DIURNAL
RANGE IN SHRA/TSRA THREAT...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. A LEE TROUGH SETS UP AS WELL OVER THE PIEDMONT
WHICH COULD AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.

FOR NOW KEEPING IN POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH SUNDAY LOOKING
DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING
IN TEH WESTERN PORTION OF THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA.
WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AERA....BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY 02Z. COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE AS A PREDOMINATE GROUP...AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF
VCTS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT...WELL
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING A EAST WIND AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TO LYH
AND PERHAPS TO KROA...KBCB...KLWB AND KDAN BY 12Z THURSDAY. THESE
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING DRIER
AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEN THE VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 110 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE HAS PREVENTED THE DISTRIBUTION OF
OBSERVATIONS FROM LYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT. IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN THIS
WILL BE RESOLVED.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PH
NEAR TERM...PH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...PH
EQUIPMENT...PH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
509 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-291000-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
509 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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