Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
749 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING...WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING IN A RETURN TO DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY MONDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN BASED ON LATEST RADAR/MESOANALYSIS TRENDS.
WILL MAINTAIN INCREASING POPS OVER THE WRN CWA AS CONVECTION NOW
OVER CENTRAL WV SLIDES SOUTHWARD. CORFIDI VECTORS FAVOR SLOWING
AND TURNING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH INTO FAR SW VA/ERN KY WITH
CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT ARE NOW LINED UP FROM INDIANA EAST TO CRW.
EVEN THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE FAVORING HIGHER THETA-E AND
CONVECTION OVER OUR FAR SW CWA BY MIDNIGHT. LIMITED
SHOWERS/THUNDER EXPECTED EAST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT NORTH OF
ROA-LYH...WITH NO CHANCE ATTM FOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SOUTH OF
ROANOKE. MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE SKY/TEMPS AND WIND.

PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP
THE RIDGES BREEZY...WELL MIXED AND MILD. WITH THE FORECAST AREA
STILL IN THE WARM SECTOR...EXPECT MINIMAL DROP IN TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. STAYING CLOSER TO WARMER BIAS CORRECTED MAV GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS.

MODELS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS MORE STABLE AIR
BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE ALONG THE PASSING COLD FRONT
DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS WERE REDUCED TO LEAVE THE WHOLE CWA
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY FRIDAY...A MODEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS OVER PENNSYLVANIA...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM WISCONSIN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD
SET UP A DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL
PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS PERHAPS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE 12Z MODELS ARE INDICATING. IT WILL ALSO USHER A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS TOWARD THE CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY MORNING COULD BRING ANOTHER TASTE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES...AS LOWS MIGHT TEST THE MID 40S IN THE DEEPEST
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SUCH AS LEWISBURG AND BURKES GARDEN.
HOWEVER...THE MORNING CHILL WILL GIVE WAY TO PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. IT APPEARS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL
BE DRY FOR WHATEVER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES YOU MAY HAVE PLANNED TO
WELCOME THE UNOFFICIAL START OF SUMMER 2014.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT TUESDAY...

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS AGREE ON A BROAD 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS SHOULD MODIFY AS THE
HIGH SLIPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE
COAST. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
ENSUE DURING MEMORIAL DAY TO PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE WORK
WEEK. COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EASILY REACHING THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STEADILY INCREASE. ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ON MEMORIAL DAY DUE TO LIMITED CAPE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST POP CHANCES
WERE PLACED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST HINGES ON CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
WV. NOT SEEING A BIG THREAT OF SHOWERS OR STORMS EXCEPT PERHAPS
LWB/BLF. EVEN THAT WILL BE SMALL AS MAIN ENERGY AND CONVERGENCE
WILL LIE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MTNS INTO FAR SW VA INTO KY
OVERNIGHT.

THE OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN INCREASING
HUMID AIR. WINDS STAY UP A BIT SO NOT SEEING A BIG THREAT. GFS
SHOWING A CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS AT BLF/LWB AS WELL AS BCB POST
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WILL LEAN TOWARD MVFR CIGS
AT BLF/LWB BUT NOT BCB. ANY FOG EXPECTED TO BE MVFR...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT LWB DROPS TO IFR AFTER 08Z.

FOR THURSDAY...APPEARS SHOWER AND STORM THREAT WILL LIE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CWA AND PERHAPS GRAZING BLF...THEN SOUTH OF DANVILLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH LIMITED THREAT WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF TAFS
FOR NOW. SHOULD BE SCT-BKN CU WITH SOME BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...SO
VFR EXPECTED WITH A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG AT LWB/LYH
AND BCB. MONDAY THERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
913 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

VAZ007-009-020-WVZ042>045-230115-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
913 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ010>019-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-230115-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
913 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
829 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

WVZ045-220115-
GREENBRIER WV-
829 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHWEST GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 915 PM EDT

* AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN CRAIGSVILLE AND
  RICHWOOD...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
  THUNDERSTORM. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WITH THIS STORM
  CAN BE EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TROUT...
  AND LEONARD.

LAT...LON 3823 8036 3811 8036 3806 8028 3795 8042
      3797 8044 3814 8062 3815 8061 3827 8044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 314DEG 31KT 3829 8062

RAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
913 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

WVZ045-220145-
GREENBRIER WV-
913 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 945 PM EDT

* AT 911 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHWEST GREENBRIER
  COUNTY...BETWEEN LEONARD AND RICHWOOD...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT
  25 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
  THUNDERSTORM. EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM. THE THUNDERSTORM IS ABOUT 10
  MILES WEST OF THE U.S. 219 CORRIDOR AND RENICK.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RENICK...
  LEONARD...
  RORER...
  AND FALLING SPRING.

LAT...LON 3823 8036 3811 8036 3805 8027 3804 8021
      3804 8016 3806 8011 3805 8010 3792 8034
      3815 8057 3825 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 304DEG 22KT 3813 8035

RAB