Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A LARGE AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY
RAIN AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM EDT TUESDAY...

AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALOFT TO THE WEST
HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST A BIT SOONER THAN EXPECTED WITH
DOWNPOURS INCLUDING SOME TSRA AFFECTING THE FAR SW ATTM. THIS
APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT HAS NOW
INTERSECTED THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST...IN TURN ACTING TO
ENHANCE RAINFALL ESPCLY ALONG THE I-77 CORRIDOR. APPEARS THIS
CONVECTION...AT LEAST ON AN ELEVATED BASIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE STRONG WEDGE AS MODELS SHOW AN INDUCED WAVE ALOFT
ALSO SLIDING ACROSS. THUS HAVE UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL A BIT
SOONER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH STARTING THE GOING WATCH EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE WEST. COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITHIN THIS
SHRA AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION BEFORE THE LIFT WEAKENS THIS MORNING.
MODELS THEN RELOAD ALONG THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY ALOFT OVER THE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA EAST
REACHING THE PIEDMONT LATE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOWLY
INCREASING OVER THE FAR SE. AT THE SAME TIME WILL GRAUDALLY SEE
THE WEDGE WEAKEN BUT PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE NAM GIVEN PRECIP
INTO THE COOL POOL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING BEST
DEEPER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE FAR WEST AND SE BUT ADDED IN
ELSW AS WELL PER LIFT ABOVE THE INVERSION. STILL APPEARS BEST
FLOODING THREAT OVER THE WEST-SW WHERE WILL BE PRIMED BY EARLIER
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTRW CONTINUED HIGH POPS OVERALL TODAY WITH TEMPS
QUITE TRICKY GIVEN THE FAST EXODUS OF THE WEDGE BY THE GFS AND
SLOWER OFF THE NAM. BASED ON TRENDS...WENT WITH THE CHILLY MET MOS
AND LOWERED TEMPS WITH LATE DAY HIGHS LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST.

WEDGE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE WARM FRONT
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SHALLOW INSTABILITY TO PUSH NORTH ALONG WITH
BETTER SHEAR. EARLIER BOUNDARY AND HOW FAR EAST IT GETS KEY TO
EXACTLY WHERE TRAINING OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS WHICH WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
JUST EAST OF THIS AXIS. GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND POINTS EAST LATER TONIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND AIDS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR FLOODING EASTERN SLOPES AND
POINTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW TOPPED SEVERE THREAT
ESPCLY SE AND PIEDMONT ALONG THE EXITING BOUNDARY. THEREFORE BEEFED
UP THE THUNDER COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT WITH CAT POPS AND TEMPS
BASICALLY RISING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH DAWN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE TWO MAIN CONCERNS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE EXTENSIVENESS OF CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WAITING TO AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY TO MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN...BUT
ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A BAND OF STORMS COULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE MORE LIKELY TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS BEING MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT.

QUESTION ON HOW FAST THE STRONG SSW FLOW JUST ABOVE STABLE LAYER
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...COMBINED WITH ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS...TO
MIX OUT THE SHALLOW WEDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THEN WILL BE DEVELOPING IN UNSTABLE SFC-BASED
AIRMASS..WITH FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. SWODY2 HAS EXPANDED
THE SLIGHT RISK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE MAIN
THREAT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINDS AND HAIL...EVEN ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WPC CONTINUED THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN DAY 2 OUTLOOK
FOR WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT...DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WHERE
THE HEAVY RAIN FALLS TUESDAY WILL PRIME THE LOCATIONS FOR FLOODING
ON WEDNESDAY AND AND THEN EVENTUALLY RIVER FLOOD THREAT. PLAYED
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY CLOSER TO THE COOLER ADJMET WITH
READINGS FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 70S IN
THE PIEDMONT. FELT THE EXTENT OF THE LOWER 80S ON THE ADJMAV WAS
OVERDONE WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF AREA WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS COLD FRONT HEADS SOUTHEAST TO
COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER
40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN
SLOPES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1PM EDT MONDAY...

12Z GFS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE EURO FOR THE EXTENDED SO CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING IN THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PATTERN TO MIGRATE FROM A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY TO A SLOW MOVING BROAD TROF
WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTER RECONFIGURING FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE TROF AXIS TO FINALLY MOVE TO OUR EAST LATE
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD FLAT HIGH BUILDING WITH NW FLOW
ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH A CHC FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A HIGHER CHC OF UPSLOPE
SHOWERS AS THE SHORT WAVE KICKER ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROF AND A COLD FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE AREA. MAY SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY CARRY OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
IN THE COLD POOL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND IT LOOKS LIKE DECENT RAD
COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE SOME FROST OR FREEZE CONCERNS TO
CONSIDER WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE SINCE THE LETHARGIC GROWING SEASON WILL
HOPEFULLY BE UNDERWAY BY THEN.

AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...WE WILL WIND UP WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER US WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST MON AND TUE.
BELIEVE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO RIDE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND AFFECT THE AREA BUT DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST AND WILL
NOT ATTEMPT TO GET FANCY THAT FAR OUT.
&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT TUESDAY...

OVERALL PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD LOW CONDITIONS
RANGING FROM MVFR/IFR IN THE WEST TO IFR/VLIFR CIGS IN THE EAST
THIS MORNING. BANDS OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS WILL ALSO BRING
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH THE MORNING AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE SW. EXCEPTION AT TIMES WILL BE BLF
WHICH HANGS RIGHT ALONG THE WEDGE FRONT AND WILL LIKELY OSCILLATE
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR PENDING DEGREE OF SHRA IN THE AREA.

ONCE THIS BATCH OF RAINFALL TAPERS SOME...EXPECTING ANOTHER
HEAVIER BAND TO AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSLATING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER IN THE
DAY. OVERALL NOT SEEING ANYTHING IMPROVING ABOVE MVFR THIS TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF BLF. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NE-SE. SOME
STRONGER WINDS MAY IMPACT BLF AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO INCREASE MORE THAN GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS AT
TIMES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING.

BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY MAKING FOR
WIDESPREAD IFR ESPCLY FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST. A DEEP AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BY EVENING.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH BANDS
OF SHRA/TSRA. APPEARS ENOUGH DRYING ALOFT TO PERHAPS SEE
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE EAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
MVFR LIKELY LINGERING AT TIMES ACROSS THE SE WEST VA LOCATIONS
INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 AM EDT TUESDAY...

AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST INTO THE SW PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH A GOOD HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN LIKELY ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS COMBO WITH THE RAINFALL OF A
QUARTER TO ONE INCH FROM MONDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARRIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EARLIER
ARRIVAL OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING HAVE GONE AHEAD AND STARTED THE
WATCH THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS
OCCURRING AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH TO START LATER
TODAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE MORE RAIN...THE HIGHER THE THREAT. WITH WIDESPREAD
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FLOODING OF AT LEAST SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS
IS LIKELY.

THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING BY MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK. BUT STILL TOO EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WHICH
RIVERS AND HOW WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE. STAY TUNED.

LATEST RUNS OF ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECAST FROM THE GEFS AND THE NAEFS
WERE SUGGESTING AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF MODERATE RIVER FLOODING
ON THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AND ON THE ROANOKE AT RANDOLPH.
FLOODING POSSIBILITIES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE JAMES AND
GREENBRIER RIVER BASINS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ007-009>018-
     022-032-033.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR VAZ019-020-023-024-034-035-043>047-058-059.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ001>003-
     018>020.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ004>006.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/SK/WP
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/JH/WP
HYDROLOGY...AMS/JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
341 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ009>018-022-032-033-300745-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-
WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-
341 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINES OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ023-024-034-035-300745-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
341 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINES OF STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-300745-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-
BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
341 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN LINES OF STORMS.
HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
TORNADOES AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ019-020-300745-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
341 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-WVZ042>045-300745-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
341 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
527 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ005-006-VAZ014-017-022-033-034-043>045-058-291030-
ROCKINGHAM NC-CASWELL NC-FRANKLIN VA-FLOYD VA-BEDFORD VA-HENRY VA-
HALIFAX VA-CAMPBELL VA-ROANOKE VA-MONTGOMERY VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
527 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHERN CASWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHERN ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  EAST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 630 AM EDT

* AT 526 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BENT MOUNTAIN
  TO NEAR HORSE PASTURE...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. VERY HEAVY
  RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND
  QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS. FREQUENT
  LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAYFIELD...
  PROVIDENCE...
  DANVILLE CITY...
  BLAIRS...
  AND EDEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 7998 3679 8008 3680 8004 3685 8010
      3722 8023 3736 7932 3654 7904 3654 7913
      3650 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 264DEG 33KT 3716 8014 3658 7994

JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
535 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ002>004-019-VAZ016-017-032-291030-
SURRY NC-ALLEGHANY NC-STOKES NC-WILKES NC-FLOYD VA-PATRICK VA-
CARROLL VA-
535 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SURRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  EASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHERN STOKES COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
  NORTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  CENTRAL FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 630 AM EDT

* AT 534 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BARRETT TO
  NEAR STATE ROAD...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
  STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND
  ON ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MOUNT AIRY...
  MOUNTAIN PARK...
  ELKIN...
  ENNICE...
  AND DOBSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 8093 3651 8108 3657 8099 3656 8084
      3663 8089 3705 8023 3694 8018 3687 8023
      3685 8014 3666 8006 3649 8003 3627 8073
      3626 8076 3627 8078 3626 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 236DEG 38KT 3650 8097 3633 8089

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
649 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

NCZ001-002-018-019-291145-
WATAUGA NC-ASHE NC-ALLEGHANY NC-WILKES NC-
649 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL WATAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHEASTERN ASHE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
  CENTRAL WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 745 AM EDT

* AT 646 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MAPLE
  SPRINGS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON
  ROADWAYS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.
  AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS WESTERN WILKES COUNTY
  THROUGH 8 AM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MC GRADY...
  WILBAR...
  LAUREL SPRINGS...
  SPARTA...
  AND HALLS MILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8134 3619 8153 3657 8117 3650 8093
      3644 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1042Z 218DEG 31KT 3621 8138

JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
730 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

VAZ034-035-045-291215-
AMHERST VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-
730 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 729 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEDFORD CITY...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
  AT 35 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG CITY...
  EVINGTON...
  FOREST...
  BEDFORD CITY...
  AND HUDDLESTON.

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 7955 3733 7968 3761 7921 3738 7899
      3736 7898
TIME...MOT...LOC 1125Z 236DEG 32KT 3726 7950

CF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
813 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

VAZ035-045>047-291300-
APPOMATTOX VA-AMHERST VA-BUCKINGHAM VA-CAMPBELL VA-
813 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHWESTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTH CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 900 AM EDT

* AT 812 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RIVERVILLE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
  45 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CONCORD...
  AMHERST...
  CLIFFORD...
  BENT CREEK...
  AND STONEWALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN OR SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3733 7900 3761 7923 3771 7904 3769 7898
      3755 7890 3754 7883 3758 7883 3760 7881
      3763 7882 3763 7872 3770 7869 3769 7864
      3772 7865 3776 7861 3776 7854 3764 7844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 238DEG 40KT 3752 7901

CF