Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
402 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TRAILED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN INTO VIRGINIA ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 253 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A WARM FRONT IS TRACKING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING THE
REGION IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITIES POPPING STORMS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GEL IN TO LINES
TRACKING OVER THE AREA AND OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
SO FAR STORMS ARE SMALL BUT INTENSE WITH DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
IN THE STRONGER CELLS. HAIL CORE WILL LIKELY BECOME BIGGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON ADDING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. THESE
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NW TO SE INTO THIS EVENING
AND FADE OR LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOOKING FOR A MESOSCALE DISTURBANCE OR REMNANTS
OF TO TRACK INTO WEST-CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA THEN DIVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORFOLK SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND POSSIBLE WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM
STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TAIL OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY...THEN TO THE PIEDMONT BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH LOSE
OF HEATING...MOST STORMS WILL JUST HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. WITH LINGERING INSTABILITIES AND HIGH DEW POINTS...A
FEW STORMS COULD REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THIS STORM EXITS THE PIEDMONT...IT WILL TAKE OR REDUCE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/S INSTABILITIES...THEREFORE LOWERING POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH POSSIBLE RAIN AND CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER BUT WITH HIGH
DEW POINTS...STILL REMAIN MUGGY. EXPECTED HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 80F IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY TO UPPER 80S INTO THE PIEDMONT.
THE SUMMER SOLSTICES BEGINS AT 651A SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WILL BE MOVING
EAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME WEAKER AS 5H RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT
THE SFC FRONT STAYS OVER THE NC/SC AREA. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG IT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO SAT EVENING
OUT EAST BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL HELP OVERALL IN TEMPS FROM HITTING THE 90S OUT EAST AS MODELS
FAVOR MORE MOISTURE TO SETUP INTO THE REGION EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE.

WILL BE HAVING HIGH CHANCE OF POPS SAT EVENING EAST TO EXIT
OVERNIGHT. EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS OF VA INTO PORTIONS OF THE NC PIEDMONT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY FAVORS A SHOWER/STORM CHANCE OVER THE BLUE
RIDGE AS FLOW TURNS MORE SE. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WEAKENING AND A
WEAK SE SFC FLOW...STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WITH PWATS STILL RUNNING FROM 1.25 TO 1.5
INCHES...AND STORMS REMAINING ANCHORED AT TIMES. THE OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE SFC HIGH SITUATE ITSELF
OVERHEAD. WEAK FLOW SFC/ALOFT WILL LEAD TO NO MOVEMENT OF AIR.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW LVLS SO SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND ALL NIGHT THOUGH NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM. MONDAY THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE IN THE MTNS TO HAVE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY MONDAY...SO POSSIBILITY
OF SOME MORE ENHANCED THREAT.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN RIDGE BUILDS AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH
INTO THE MIDWEST INCREASES IN LATITUDE. POPS WILL BE STAYING ON
THE LOW SIDE MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THIS INCREASE IN HEIGHTS OVER THE
CWA.

LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL STAY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE AIRMASS OVERALL STAYS ON THE WARM/HUMID SIDE WITH 5H
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. ONE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WORKS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
NUDGE OUR CHANCE OF STORMS UP MIDWEEK. THE FRONT SITUATES ITSELF
MORE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION THU-FRI WHICH WILL KEEP THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT FRIDAY...

PATCHES MVFR CLOUDS WILL LIFT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH HEATING AND DECENT
INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING NW TO SE TRACKING STORMS EXPECTED AT
BLF/LWB BETWEEN 19Z/2P-02Z/10. HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR A STORM TO BE IN THE VICINITY
OF KROA/KBCB/KLYH/KDAN AT A GIVEN TIME IS VERY LOW.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HAVE
KEPT CEILINGS VFR AT KROA/KBCB/KLYH AND KDAN WITH SHOWERS...MAINLY
AFTER 05Z/1AM SATURDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR
KLWB/KBLF WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FLOW PATTERN HOLDING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE STORM
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING SAT/SUN BUT COVERAGE
FOR NOW LOOKS A BIT LESS EACH DAY BEHIND THE PASSING IMPULSE FROM
SATURDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO RETURN NORTH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ON
MONDAY.

AREAS OF IFR FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN THE PREVIOUS AFTERNOON. THE
MOST OPTIMAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS EACH DAY SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS LIFT AND BURN OFF...AND BEFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...RCS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1111 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-211515-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
1111 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E QUICK               36.40N 79.47W
06/20/2014                   CASWELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THREE TREES DOWN IN THE ALLISON ROAD VICINITY OF QUICK.

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
516 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             3 WNW MONETA            37.19N 79.68W
06/20/2014  E1.00 INCH       BEDFORD            VA   PUBLIC

&&

WHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
519 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

VAZ035-045-046-202215-
APPOMATTOX VA-AMHERST VA-CAMPBELL VA-
519 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 518 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MADISON HEIGHTS...MOVING TO THE
  SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG CITY...
  CONCORD...
  RUSTBURG...
  MADISON HEIGHTS...
  AND BOCOCK.

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY...SO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TELEVISION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS...FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 7880 3714 7910 3745 7925 3747 7921
      3747 7919 3748 7922 3753 7910 3721 7879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 328DEG 14KT 3742 7913

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     HAIL             2 ENE LYNCHBURG CITY    37.42N 79.12W
06/20/2014  E0.88 INCH       AMHERST            VA   PUBLIC

&&

WHP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
546 PM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE ARARAT            36.57N 80.51W
06/20/2014                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON PEDIGO RIDGE ROAD.

&&

WHP