Frost Advisory 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

684 
WWUS71 KRNK 190405
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1205 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

...FROST ACROSS THE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...

.COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF FROST ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON MONDAY.

VAZ007-010-011-018>020-WVZ042>045-191300-
/O.CON.KRNK.FR.Y.0003.140519T0600Z-140519T1300Z/
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...
BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1205 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AS 
  WELL PARTS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA INCLUDING THE VIRGINIA 
  HIGHLANDS.

* HAZARDS...PATCHY FROST WITH SOME AREAS OF FROST...ESPECIALLY IN
  THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 30S...WITH READINGS BRIEFLY 
  DROPPING BELOW FREEZING IN SOME OF THE DEEPEST VALLEYS.

* IMPACTS...FROST MAY DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE OUTDOOR 
  VEGETATION IF LEFT UNPROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

727 
WWUS71 KRNK 191306
NPWRNK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
906 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

...FROST ADVISORY EXPIRED...

.TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUED TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH NO
ADDITIONAL FROST EXPECTED.

VAZ007-010-011-018>020-WVZ042>045-191415-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-140519T1300Z/
TAZEWELL-BLAND-GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...BLAND...PEARISBURG...
NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...
BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
906 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2014

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S THIS MORNING
AND REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL FROST
IS EXPECTED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1252 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES LATER TUESDAY... ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE MIDWEST FOR MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL PASS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND
WELL INTO THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...

APPROACHING WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED JET STREAK HAVE LIFTED DEEPER
CLOUD COVER INTO FAR SOUTHERN/SW SECTIONS THIS MORNING AS THIS
FEATURE ROUNDS INTO THE BASE OF THE 5H TROF PER VAPOR LOOP.
HOWEVER MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT
OVERTOP THIS MOISTURE WITH MAINLY THIN CI ACROSS MUCH OF THE
VIRGINIA PORTION OF THE CWA ATTM. EXPECT AXIS OF DEEPEST MOISTURE
TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE SHEARS BY WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT TO WHERE WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY SPOTTY
-SHRA FAR SW. MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NEW NAM REMAINING DRY
OVER NW NC THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A FEW SHOW MORE OF A LOW LEVEL SE
TRAJECTORY DEVELOPING WHICH ENDS UP PRODUCING ISOLATED -SHRA
MAINLY OVER THE NW NC RIDGES. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE SO HAVE REMOVED
POPS TO INIT THIS MORNING AND CUT CLOUD COVER WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED MENTION THIS AFTERNOON WHEN PERHAPS THE LOW LEVELS
MOISTEN ENOUGH. ELSW EXPECTING EARLY HIGH/MID CLOUDS TO WANE AND
THEN GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCTD/BKN CU WHERE MORE HEATING
TAKES SHAPE ESPCLY JUST NORTH OF THE SRN CLOUD SHIELD. OTRW
OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY MOST SPOTS OUTSIDE THE FAR SOUTH. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD AGAIN HOLD HIGH TEMPS DOWN ESPCLY SOUTH AND
MOUNTAINS WHERE LOWERED A CAT OR SO MAKING FOR ANOTHER RATHER
COOL MAY AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 415 AM EDT SUNDAY...

MAIN FEATURE ON RADAR THIS MORNING IS A LARGE BAND OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE EASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PASSING FURTHER SOUTH THAN WAS
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND LATEST RUNS OF NEAR TERM
FORECAST MODELS EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OUR
AREA...POSSIBLY WITH A FEW SPRINKLES REACHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES...
WHICH WILL DEPEND A GREAT DEAL ON CLOUD COVER. STARTING THIS
MORNING OFF WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
460...WHILE CLOUD COVER IS THINNING FURTHER NORTH. CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN DOING A GOOD JOB OF INSULATING THE AREA...HOLDING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S MOST LOCATIONS...BUT NOW
SEEING TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS
GREENBRIER AND BATH COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT. LIGHT
WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING MAKING FOR A GOOD SET UP FOR
PATCHY FROST IN THESE COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY BOTTOMS
WHERE COLD AIR TENDS TO POOL...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE FROST
ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 9 AM.

GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM CANADA SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
PIEDMONT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED OVER OHIO...A FINGER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO SHIFT
WINDS FROM NORTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING...TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY HOWEVER DUE TO LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

WILL EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...MAKING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS...HOWEVER
VALLEY BOTTOMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S LOCALLY. AS SUCH...ONCE AGAIN SEE
A POTENTIAL FOR FROST. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE CLOUD TRENDS
HEADING INTO THE EVENING TO DETERMINE IF AND WHERE ANOTHER FROST
ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST...OUR COOL STRING OF DAYS COMING TO AN END. A 1026 MB
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
MONDAY...FEATURING DRY WEATHER WITH CLOUD FREE SKIES AND A NEAR CALM
WIND. AFTER A CHILLY START MONDAY MORNING...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
NEUTRAL ADVECTION WILL BRING US BACK TO MAY NORMALS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING FOR THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SOUTH TUESDAY SETTLING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST STATES.  ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID ATLANTIC...A BOUNDARY THAT WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO WARMER
WEATHER.  THIS MODERATING TREND WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH 85H TEMPS
CLIMBING ABOVE 10 DEG C TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH WELL
INTO THE 70S...POSSIBLY TESTING 80.  REACHING 80 HOWEVER WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT.  CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 40-60 PERCENT SHADING ON TUESDAY DUE
TO CLOUD COVER...SO THIS MAY HOLD US DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.  ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NY/PA AND ACROSS NORTHERN WV/VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT SATURDAY...

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER...AND STRONGER...SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND ACT AS THE
CATALYST TO ALLOW A TRANSITION FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER OUR
REGION TO ONE OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL RETROGRADE TO
THE CENTRAL U.S.

THIS NEW REGIME WILL ALSO PLACE A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER...OR JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE PATTERN THAT WILL BE MORE
CLOUDY THAN CLEAR WITH DAILY CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. ALSO...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRONE TO WELCOMING ANY
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES THAT FORM OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DEGREE TO WHICH ANY MAKE IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE VARY FROM SYSTEM
TO SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER ON WEDNESDAY FROM EARLIER
IN THE WEEK...BUT TAKE A SLOW TURN COOLER AS CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE FREQUENT IN THE FORECAST...AND THE HIGHER
HEIGHTS SHIFT WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1240 PM EDT SUNDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOST ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER HEATING OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SCTD-BKN VFR CU
FIELDS THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY WITH MOST BASES BETWEEN 4-6K FT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. MAY SEE SOME
LEFTOVER SCT-BKN STRATO-CU GET STUCK IN SPOTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
FROM KROA/KBCB AND POINTS SW OTRW THINKING CONTINUED VFR. WITH
CLEAR SKIES PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND KLWB AND
PERHAPS KBCB LATE WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY ALLOWING WINDS
TO TURN MORE SOUTH AND SW BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY
EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH VFR EXPECTED UNDER SCTD CU MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
THE NORTH. THIS FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING
LATER TUESDAY. FRONT APPROACHES BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A
DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OTRW...OUTSIDE SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY...WHEN
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FRONT DIPS SOUTH OF
THE REGION BY FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR SPILLS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...JH/NF
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JH/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
900 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

NCZ002>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-191300-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-CARROLL-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
900 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-018-VAZ007-009>015-018-019-WVZ042>044-191300-
ASHE-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
900 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ020-WVZ045-191300-
BATH-GREENBRIER-
900 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.