Flood Watch 2, NWS Blacksburg, VA

310 
WGUS61 KRNK 040442
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1142 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO POOL ALONG THIS FEATURE AND MAXIMIZE OVER
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND THE I-64 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. WHILE FLASH FLOODING IS NOT THE BIGGEST THREAT...WITH
RECENT HEAVY RAINS...AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH.
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF SOME OF THE
LARGER RIVERS. 

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-041245-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.140205T0100Z-140205T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1142 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...GREENBRIER...MERCER... 
  MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY 
  PROMPT FLOODING. 

* THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE LONGER TERM FLOODING OF RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$$

318 
WGUS61 KRNK 040949
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
449 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA...IMPACTING MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED WELL IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF
LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION
AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...SIMPLY AGGRAVATING THE SITUATION.
MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE ALREADY NEAR
BANKFUL. THE GROUND IS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOW
MELT. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF INTO AREAS
CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING
AT SOME LOCATIONS. LOCATIONS AND TRIBUTARIES ALONG THE
GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL BE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-041800-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.140205T0100Z-140205T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
449 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...GREENBRIER...MERCER... 
  MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1/2 TO 3/4 OF
  AN INCH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

* THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE LONGER TERM FLOODING OF
  RIVERS...ESPECIALLY THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND JAMES RIVER
  BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$$

RAB

673 
WGUS61 KRNK 041531
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1031 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...
IMPACTING MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED WELL IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AGGRAVATING THE SITUATION. MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH. THE GROUND
IS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
NOTED ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA AS WELL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF INTO AREAS CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING AT SOME LOCATIONS.
LOCATIONS AND TRIBUTARIES ALONG THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND
UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-042345-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.140205T0100Z-140205T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
1031 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...GREENBRIER...MERCER... 
  MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE HALF TO
  THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING.

* THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE LONGER TERM FLOODING OF RIVERS... 
  ESPECIALLY THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND JAMES RIVER 
  BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$$

180 
WGUS61 KRNK 042047
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
347 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...
IMPACTING MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED WELL IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AGGRAVATING THE SITUATION. MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH. THE GROUND
IS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
NOTED ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA AS WELL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF INTO AREAS CREEKS AND STREAMS...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING AT SOME LOCATIONS.
LOCATIONS AND TRIBUTARIES ALONG THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND
UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-050500-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.140205T0100Z-140205T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
347 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...GREENBRIER...MERCER... 
  MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM
  WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE FLOODING.

* IMPACTS ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY THE MAIN STEM
  RIVERS INCLUDING...THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND JAMES RIVER
  BASINS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.



&&

$$

691 
WGUS61 KRNK 050255
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
955 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEMS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA...
IMPACTING MANY OF THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED WELL IN EXCESS OF
ONE INCH OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A BRIEF LINE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...AGGRAVATING THE SITUATION. MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH. THE GROUND
IS COMPLETELY SATURATED FROM RECENT SNOW MELT. ICE JAMS HAVE BEEN
NOTED ON SOME RIVERS IN THE AREA AS WELL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF INTO AREAS CREEKS AND STREAMS...
WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING AT SOME LOCATIONS.
LOCATIONS AND TRIBUTARIES ALONG THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND
UPPER JAMES RIVER BASIN WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-051100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140205T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
955 PM EST TUE FEB 4 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...GREENBRIER...MERCER... 
  MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINS WITH THIS 
  SYSTEM WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY CAUSE FLOODING. 

* IMPACTS ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY THE MAIN STEM 
  RIVERS INCLUDING...THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND JAMES 
  RIVER BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$$

113 
WGUS61 KRNK 051012
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
512 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK FROM THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING TOWARD PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT SO FAR HAS BEEN
MOSTLY IN THE ONE-QUARTER INCH RANGE. AN ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO
LOCALLY ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
THE FINAL LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE RAINFALL OF 1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES THAT
FELL MONDAY ON TOP OF SATURATED GROUND...AND RECENT SNOW
MELT...AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS ARE RUNNING NEAR BANKFUL
IN MANY AREAS. THUS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN RENEWED
MINOR FLOODING AT MANY OF THESE SAME LOCATIONS. AREAS THAT APPEAR
TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
WARM SPRINGS...TO LEWISBURG...TO BLUEFIELD...TO TAZEWELL...WITH
THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND UPPER JAMES RIVER BASINS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE MINOR FLOODING.

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-051700-
/O.CON.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140205T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
512 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING 
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN VIRGINIA...ALLEGHANY VA...BATH AND 
  TAZEWELL. IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...GREENBRIER...MERCER... 
  MONROE AND SUMMERS. 

* UNTIL NOON EST TODAY

* RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL THIS MORNING MAY RESULT IN MINOR
  FLOODING.

* IMPACTS ALONG CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND POSSIBLY THE MAIN STEM 
  RIVERS INCLUDING...THE GREENBRIER...BLUESTONE...AND JAMES 
  RIVER BASINS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING
DEVELOP.

&&

$$

RAB

878 
WGUS61 KRNK 051056
FFARNK

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
556 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-051200-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-140205T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...
HOT SPRINGS...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...
LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
556 AM EST WED FEB 5 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL OVERNIGHT HAS GENERALLY BEEN
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH. MOST...IF NOT ALL
RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE AREA...HAVE DROPPED BELOW BANKFUL.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
ANY RENEWED FLOODING. THUS...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WEDGES
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT TO THE WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST MONDAY...

FRONT HAS NOW MOVED INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. RADAR ACROSS OUR AREA IS PRETTY MUCH ECHO
FREE...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES LEAVING SKIRTING SE CASWELL
COUNTY NC.

THE CLEARING TREND WAS HANDLED WELL BY THE 12Z NAM/CMC AND SOME
EXTENT THE WRF. THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT WILL SEE LOW LVL MOISTURE STUCK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LOW LVL INVERSION SETTING UP...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR TYPICAL COLD AIR DAMMING AREAS TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED THREAT OF DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE...BUT COULD SOME ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS FROM FRANKLIN/FLOYD NORTH TO AMHERST/ROCKBRIDGE.

APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE STARTS OVERRUNNING THE BOUNDARY AFTER MIDDAY
TUESDAY BUT MODELS HAVE SLOWED TIMING OF PRECIP DOWN UNTIL
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE SOUTH BY SUNSET WITH A CHANCE
OF RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN CWA BY 23Z/6 PM. FORECAST THERMAL
STRUCTURE FAVORS MOSTLY A RAIN EVENT BUT THE STRENGTH OF CAD WILL
HOLD TEMPS SUB-FREEZING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE JAMES RIVER AND INTO THE ALLEGHANYS. AT THIS TIME
THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR TEMP TRENDS TOMORROW.

WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE AND CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN THE TEMPS
TUESDAY WILL BE UNDER GUIDANCE...WHILE MOST MOS TEMPS LOOKS
SATISFACTORY OVER THE FAR SW. WENT WITH HIGHS FROM MID 40S TO AROUND
50 WEST OF I-77 SRN WV-SWVA TO UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S MOST
LOCATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM EST MONDAY...

OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
INTO AND THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN THE COLD AIR
DAMMING THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WE ANTICIPATE THAT ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE...PROGRESSIVELY
MILDER AIR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MANY REGIONS TO
EXPERIENCE THEIR LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE NIGHT EARLY IN THE
EVENING...OR PERHAPS AT THE LATEST...MIDNIGHT.

WHILE NOT THE BEST CROSSING ANGLE...THERE WILL BE AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ALONG THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS SAME DIRECTION
WILL YIELD A NON-OPTIMAL DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT IN THE
TAZEWELL...SMYTH...BLAND COUNTY REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THERE
SHOULD BE A MINOR RAIN SHADOW HERE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH GUSTIER
WINDS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...SPEEDS LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL FIRST VEER SOUTHWEST AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW IS NORTH OF THE AREA...THEN BY THE AFTERNOON SHIFT
NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BEFORE TEMPERATURES START RISING IN THE
NORTH...A FEW SPOTS IN BATH COUNTY VIRGINIA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SOME ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN. BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WILL BE A LITTLE OVER ONE-
HALF INCH. WHILE THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO PROMOTE FLASH
FLOODING...LONG TERM FLOODING ON STREAM AND RIVERS MAY BE THE
RESULT. AS SUCH...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA THAT
WILL LAST FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON..THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD
CLEARING SKIES EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE MUCH COLDER AIR
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE MOISTURE IS NEARLY GONE.
THEREFORE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED. MOST
OF THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS WESTERN
GREENBRIER COUNTY.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL TRANSITION AGAIN TO A PATTERN WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOK FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME UPSLOPE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 305 PM EST MONDAY...

ON FRIDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND RIDGING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN FACE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...RESULTING IN A COOL EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.
MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING HOW STRONG AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
WILL BE...AND HOW MUCH RESULTING MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT
OUR AREA.

WILL CONTINUE AN CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES AS
BOTH TIMING AND THE TRACK OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
DIFFER AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD WILL PUSH WARMER GULF AIR INTO OUR AREA JUST
OFF THE SURFACE...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE FREEZING MARK FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. PTYPE IS
QUITE PROBLEMATIC FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT...LOOKING AT A COMPLEX FORECAST WITH WINTRY MIX FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...FREEZING RAIN NORTHWARD TO
AROUND THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...AND THEN SNOW FURTHER NORTH.
WITH IT BEING DAY 5 WILL HOLD WITH TWO PRECIPITATION TYPES OF
RAIN/SNOW SATURDAY MORNING CHANGING TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH
OUT OF GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REACH NORTHERN GEORGIA/SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ON MONDAY...COLDER AIR RETURNS INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE
MID 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE PIEDMONT.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EST MONDAY...

WILL BE DEALING WITH MAINLY BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
BECOMING SCATTERED AT TIMES ACROSS BCB/ROA/DAN/BLF AT TIMES. THIS
EVENING...MODELS SHOWING MOISTURE RESIDING IN THE LOWEST 1-2KFT OF
AND WE WILL SEE POTENTIAL OF LOW IFR/IFR CIGS AS WELL AS FOG.
CONFIDENCE IN IFR WHETHER ITS VSBYS OR CIGS IS HIGH...BUT LOOKS
MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRATUS GIVEN THE DEPTH. FOG MAY BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AT BLF/LWB/BCB. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY DRIZZLE/FZDZ TO
AFFECT TAF SITES PER LACK OF GOOD UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND LIMITED
DEPTH OF MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE FOR LYH IS LOW AS MODELS INDICATE
THEM STAYING ON THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR...SO KEEPING
THEM SCT OVERNIGHT.

WILL SEE THE LOW CIGS STRUGGLE TO SCOUR OUT TUE MORNING AS SEEING
POTENTIAL FOR CIRRUS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH TENDS TO LIMIT
CLEARING...BUT AT THIS TIME WILL BE CLEARING THE LOW STUFF OUT IN
THE EAST IN THE MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TUES OR TUESDAY
NIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD THREAT OF PRECIP AND
RETURN TO WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
UNDER COLD AIR DAMMING AGAIN...BUT THIS WILL BREAK DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS IN MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS...AND
THEN WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT WED TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY WED.

ANOTHER BREAK BY WED NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM
THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A
VERY COMPLEX PATTERN WITH A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...AS
TIMING...PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND PRECIP TYPE ARE ALL IN QUESTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ007-019-020.
NC...NONE.
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...WP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
338 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

VAZ007-019-020-WVZ042>045-042045-
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
338 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT AND TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME REGARDING
THIS EVENT...SO PLEASE REMAIN ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS.
HOWEVER...SOME DEGREE OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THESE COUNTIES WITHIN
THIS TIME FRAME IS ALMOST CERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ009>016-018-042045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-
GRAYSON-CARROLL-CRAIG-
338 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT AND TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME REGARDING
THIS EVENT...SO PLEASE REMAIN ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032-043>047-058-059-042045-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-HENRY-
PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
338 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT AND TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME REGARDING
THIS EVENT...SO PLEASE REMAIN ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ017-022>024-033>035-042045-
FLOYD-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
338 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
EXTENT AND TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME REGARDING
THIS EVENT...SO PLEASE REMAIN ABREAST OF LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.