Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Blacksburg, VA

310 
WGUS71 KRNK 150229
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1029 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

NCC009-189-193-150615-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141015T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILKES NC-WATAUGA NC-ASHE NC-
1029 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR
NORTHWESTERN WILKES...WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES...

AT 1025 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY 
FALLEN.  THE WATAUGA RIVER NEAR SUGAR GROVE HAS COME OUT OF IT 
BANKS.  FLASH FLASHING WILL CONTINUE IN THE REGION. 

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOONE...
JEFFERSON...
WEST JEFFERSON...
BLOWING ROCK...
AND BEECH MOUNTAIN. 

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN 
THE WARNED AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS ON ROADWAYS AND
UNDERPASSES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER A WATER COVERED ROAD...TURN AROUND
DON'T DROWN! STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES AND STORM SEWERS.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND NOW.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO SEE THE
FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND
QUICKLY.  DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS
RISING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8185 3636 8180 3634 8177 3634 8171
      3641 8174 3647 8170 3653 8171 3659 8168
      3657 8136 3648 8132 3643 8126 3633 8123
      3609 8145 3610 8151 3612 8155 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

KK

507 
WGUS71 KRNK 150533
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

NCC009-189-193-150615-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141015T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILKES NC-WATAUGA NC-ASHE NC-
133 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKES...WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES...

AT 129 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED 
THAT HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE AREA. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF 
RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOONE...
JEFFERSON...
WEST JEFFERSON...
BLOWING ROCK...
AND BEECH MOUNTAIN. 

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
 
THE WATAUGA RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND STILL 
RISING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...RUNOFF WILL 
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS ON ROADWAYS AND
UNDERPASSES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER A WATER COVERED ROAD...TURN AROUND
DON'T DROWN! STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES AND STORM SEWERS.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND NOW.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO SEE THE
FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND
QUICKLY.  DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS
RISING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8185 3636 8180 3634 8177 3634 8171
      3641 8174 3647 8170 3653 8171 3659 8168
      3657 8136 3648 8132 3643 8126 3633 8123
      3609 8145 3610 8151 3612 8155 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

AS

321 
WGUS71 KRNK 150539 CCA
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
139 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

NCC009-189-193-150615-
/O.COR.KRNK.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141015T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILKES NC-WATAUGA NC-ASHE NC-
139 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM EDT FOR 
NORTHWESTERN WILKES...WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES...

AT 138 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED 
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY 
OCCURRING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BOONE...
JEFFERSON...
WEST JEFFERSON...
BLOWING ROCK...
AND BEECH MOUNTAIN. 

THIS INCLUDES APPALACHIAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
 
THE WATAUGA RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND STILL 
RISING. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA...RUNOFF WILL 
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS ON ROADWAYS AND
UNDERPASSES. IF YOU ENCOUNTER A WATER COVERED ROAD...TURN AROUND
DON'T DROWN! STAY AWAY FROM DRAINAGE DITCHES AND STORM SEWERS.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND NOW.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO SEE THE
FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND
QUICKLY.  DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS
RISING.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3634 8185 3636 8180 3634 8177 3634 8171
      3641 8174 3647 8170 3653 8171 3659 8168
      3657 8136 3648 8132 3643 8126 3633 8123
      3609 8145 3610 8151 3612 8155 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

AS

472 
WGUS71 KRNK 150614
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
214 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

NCC009-189-193-150623-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-141015T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WILKES NC-WATAUGA NC-ASHE NC-
214 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKES...WATAUGA AND 
ASHE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE
A THREAT.

THE WATAUGA RIVER AT SUGAR GROVE HAS CRESTED AND WILL BE RECEDING 
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WATER RECEDES. DO 
NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER THAT COVERS A ROAD. 

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3634 8185 3636 8180 3634 8177 3634 8171
      3641 8174 3647 8170 3653 8171 3659 8168
      3657 8136 3648 8132 3643 8126 3633 8123
      3609 8145 3610 8151 3612 8155 3611 8181
      3616 8183 3621 8191 3626 8189 3629 8192

$$

AS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
418 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND AN ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. A LARGE...BUT MUCH WEAKER...AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BRINGING SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE CARRY
VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HAVE ALREADY OBSERVED A FEW BANDS
OF HEAVY RAIN PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON...AND RADAR ESTIMATES/RAIN GAUGE READINGS INDICATED
THEY ARE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AS OF LATE AFTERNOON...AREAS OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE SETTING UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE.
THIS RAINFALL WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIMEFRAME. A FEW
RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE LINE
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE COUNTIES FROM TAZEWELL TO CRAIG IN
VIRGINIA...LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE
VERY MOIST SOILS. ALSO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE STOKES AND HENRY
COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH...WHERE MODELS ARE HINTING AT TRAINING CELLS
DEVELOPING DURING LATE EVENING. INDEED...BECAUSE OF THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDFLOW...TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE A BIG CONCERN
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES
THAT WILL LINGER FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.

MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT CORE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT HAVING
SHIFTED MORE ACROSS OUR AREA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND
SHENANDOAH VALLEY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE NEW RIVER VALLEY. HAVE ALSO
OBSERVED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AS THE MAIN
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH HAS BEEN MORE
CONDUCIVE IN MAKING THE STRONGER CELLS ROTATE AS THEY APPROACH
FROM CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING...MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL SEVERE/TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST REGION.

THE MAIN LINE WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ONCE ENTERING
OUR AREA. A FEW RAPID UPDATE MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY
OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD CAUSE IT TO
BRIEFLY SLOW/STALL...THEREBY PROLONGING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ON THIS SCENARIO HOWEVER. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE...KEEPING THE MAIN LINE OF
RAINFALL MOVING EAST...CROSSING THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE 4AM TO
6AM TIMEFRAME...AND THEN EXITING OUR EASTERN TIER OF COUNTIES
DURING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT. WILL SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS DEVELOP AS WESTERLY FLOW
KICKS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TRULY
COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

DEALING WITH THE BACK END OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AT THE ONSET OF
THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST AND NORTH OF THE
CWA...WITH CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE UPPER SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA BY
EARLY FRIDAY. SOME WRAP-AROUND EFFECTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS BUT THE
TRAJECTORY IS NOT REALLY FAVORABLE FOR MUCH. THE AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ESPECIALLY COLD WITH H85 TEMPS ONLY DOWN TO AROUND
+5C..SO NO SNOW SHOWERS TO TALK ABOUT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 NW
TO NEAR 70 SE ON THURSDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE EAST. SHOULD
TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS ON FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LIFT OUT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS AND H85 TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO +10-12C.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MORE OR LESS FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE IN THE EXTENDED WITH
SEVERAL HARD TO TIME SHORTWAVES PROVIDING MOSTLY LOW-END POPS AND
MODEST AIR MASS CHANGES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
CWA EARLY SATURDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE WILL
BE HIGHLY LIMITED. THE COLDEST AIR WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH BUT
SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN...WITH HIGHS BY SUNDAY UPPER 50S NW
TO UPPER 60S SE WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER.
NOTHING REALLY APPROACHING FROSTY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY MORNINGS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 30S FAR NW TO UPPER
40S FAR SE. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS BASICALLY DRY AND MOSTLY
UNEVENTFUL AS RENEWED ZONAL FLOW UPSTREAM BUCKLES SLIGHTLY WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER PLAINS MONDAY AND DRIVES A FRONT
EASTWARD LATER MONDAY WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR PRECIP BY EARLY
TUESDAY AND TEMPS REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT TUESDAY...

MAIN CONCERN HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BE THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WHILE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT HEAVY
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND SHIFT NORTHWARD IN
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS. HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE PROLONGED
WITHIN THESE BANDS...RESULTING IN IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES. AS THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS AREAWIDE WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR LEVELS.

THE BEST CASE SCENARIO HAS THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE MOUNTAINS FROM NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE 01Z-03Z TIMEFRAME...AFFECTING
KLWB/KBLF SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE MAIN LINE WOULD THEN PASS EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE/KROA AOA 08Z...AND EXIT THE AREA FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN AROUND 14Z. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS INDICATE A WAVE DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WHICH WOULD DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION SOME 2 TO 4 HOURS. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON THIS
WAVE DEVELOPING...SO WILL WAIT AND SEE.

ONCE THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION PASSES...GRADUAL CLEARING WILL
TAKE PLACE AS DRY AIR ALOFT WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.
CEILINGS MAY SCATTER TO VFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF A
TRAILING COLD FRONT...ONLY TO CLOUD OVER AGAIN AS UPSLOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM DRIVES FLIGHT CONDITIONS BACK
DOWN INTO MVFR RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AS THE AREA
TRANSITIONS BACK INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO
INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 400 PM EDT TUESDAY...

INCOMING SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO DROP ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-HOURS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6AM FOR BLUE RIDGE AND ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS
FAR SOUTHWEST OWING TO VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS THERE ALTHOUGH
RAINFALL MAY BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. AXIS OF EXTREMELY HIGH PWATS 1.5 TO
1.7 INCHES...NOSING INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME WITH
IMPRESSIVE H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AIMED SQUARELY AT WATAUGA COUNTY
AT THIS TIME. TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS SMALL STREAM BASINS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN TIME AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING WITH THE CURRENT QPF IN THE HYDRO
MODELS...NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE...BUT
ACTION STAGE MAY BE REACHED ON THE LOWER JAMES AND DAN RIVERS.
CRESTS FOR THESE RIVERS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ON THURSDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009>018-
     022>024-032>035-043.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ011-013-014-
     016>020-024-035.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ010-012.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ007-009-
     015.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ001>004-018>020.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ043-508.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC
AVIATION...AMS/NF
HYDROLOGY...PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

VAZ022-023-033-034-043-152030-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ015-152030-
GRAYSON-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

VAZ007-009-152030-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ002>004-019-020-VAZ032-152030-
ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WVZ042-152030-
MERCER-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001-018-VAZ010-012-152030-
ASHE-WATAUGA-BLAND-WYTHE-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

WVZ043-508-152030-
SUMMERS-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND
WV.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

VAZ011-013-014-016-017-152030-
GILES-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ019-020-152030-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ018-024-035-152030-
CRAIG-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044>047-058-059-WVZ044-507-152030-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-
422 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA AND WV.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY RESULT IN MINOR
FLOODING...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGER CELLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

NCZ001-002-018-019-142000-
WATAUGA NC-ASHE NC-ALLEGHANY NC-WILKES NC-
300 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WATAUGA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  ASHE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  CENTRAL WILKES COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 300 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELKVILLE...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 25
  MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DEEP GAP...
  MC GRADY...
  WILBAR...
  LAUREL SPRINGS...
  AND SPARTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8135 3604 8140 3607 8141 3607 8144
      3609 8146 3610 8151 3612 8155 3657 8156
      3656 8101 3603 8122 3600 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 183DEG 23KT 3603 8137

KK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
644 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

VAZ017-018-022-023-033-034-142345-
FRANKLIN VA-FLOYD VA-BOTETOURT VA-BEDFORD VA-CRAIG VA-ROANOKE VA-
644 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
  BOTETOURT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  EAST CENTRAL CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...
  ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING AN INTENSE SHOWERS NEAR COPPER HILL...MOVING TO THE NORTH
  AT 30 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS. VERY
  HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS
  AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROANOKE...
  SALEM CITY...
  STEWARTSVILLE...
  MONTVALE...
  AND BENT MOUNTAIN.

THIS INCLUDES THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 7960 3697 7995 3703 8024 3710 8021
      3711 8018 3717 8018 3768 7997 3770 7994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 199DEG 36KT 3710 8010

07