Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
253 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING NOW. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER AIR TO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY..
ANOTHER SYSTEM LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW PASSING
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC...WINDS ARE
PRIMARILY THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STORMS...ALTHOUGH BETTER
DYNAMICS ARE CLEARLY NORTH OF OUR CWA IN PITTSBURGH AND STATE
COLLEGE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES NOT QUITE IN THE
40KT RANGE...AND HAS AN ORIENTATION THAT IS MORE PARALLEL TO THE
CURRENT LINE. THIS HINDERS THE WIND POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SOME BRIEF STABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...WHICH
COULD ERODE FROM THE MID LEVELS AGAIN INTO THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR A SECOND ROUND OF MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAN
ANYTHING. HAVE KEPT THE POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING HOURS...EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY THE WESTERN
ZONES OUT OVERNIGHT.

DEWPOINTS STAY UP OVERNIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS
LINGERING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS TODAY...WHICH WILL BE AT
MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECTING DIURNAL CUMULUS WEDNESDAY THAT MAY LOOK ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT VERY LIMITED IN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ABOVE THE LOW
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS...OR A BRIEF STORM OR
TOW...CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
DAY/EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH A BRIEF AMPLIFICATION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING COOLER HIGH PRESSURE DOWN OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL APPROACH FOR THE WEEKEND. OF COURSE...THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK AND ESPECIALLY THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR
AREA MAINLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING HEAT...HUMIDITY AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LEAVES SATURDAY AS A TRANSITION DAY WITH DRY
WEATHER...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY AND WILL BE CROSSING THE
OHIO RIVER SOON. CKB...EKN...AND PKB ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...PRIMARILY FOR WIND...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WITH THE
APPROACHING LINE...WINDS ALOFT ARE PARALLEL TO THE LINE AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL HAMPER THE WIND GUSTS SOMEWHAT...SO
WILL KEEP TAF GUSTS BELOW 40KTS.

TIMING THE LINE IS USUALLY TRICKY...AND THIS IS NO EXCEPTION.
TEMPOS WERE A NECESSITY TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT WORKED TO KEEP
THEM UNDER 2 HOURS.

MAY GET SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THE
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN.

WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 25KTS. THERE WILL BE A
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS...BUT THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE
MINIMAL TO NONE...AND IT SHOULD NOT AFFECT VELOCITIES AS MUCH AS
THE LINE OF STORMS.

GETTING INTO TONIGHT BECOMES CHALLENGING AS WELL. LOCALES
RECEIVING RAIN...AS TYPICAL...WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT
FOG...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE WIND MAY TRY TO STAY ABOVE CALM.
THIS WILL MAKE FOG/MIST DEVELOPMENT QUESTIONABLE...BUT THE
SYNOPTIC WIND MAY BE TRUMPED BY MESO HIGH AIR FROM CONVECTION
EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE CONVECTIVE
OCCURRENCES...JUST NOT THE TIMING AS MUCH. FOG/MIST TONIGHT IS
ALSO IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH LINGERING IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ007>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-047-
091845-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
LAWRENCE OH-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-
RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-RANDOLPH-
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-006-013>015-024>027-033>038-046-
091845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SW BARTLETT           39.37N  81.87W
07/08/2014  M0.63 INCH       ATHENS             OH   COCORAHS

            .63 INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED IN 15 MINUTES. ESTIMATED
            WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

0153 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SW BARTLETT           39.37N  81.87W
07/08/2014  E45 MPH          ATHENS             OH   COCORAHS

            .63 INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED IN 15 MINUTES. ESTIMATED
            WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1401055
EVENT NUMBER RLX1401056

FB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WVZ008>010-017>020-029-081915-
CALHOUN WV-DODDRIDGE WV-GILMER WV-JACKSON WV-PLEASANTS WV-RITCHIE WV-
WIRT WV-WOOD WV-
237 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR RITCHIE...WOOD...NORTHERN WIRT...
NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHERN DODDRIDGE...NORTHWESTERN GILMER...
NORTHERN JACKSON AND PLEASANTS COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 236 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. MARYS TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PARKERSBURG TO 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORKED RUN STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA-SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE
WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS. EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN
THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE
INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR ELLENBORO AROUND 250 PM...GREENWOOD AROUND
300 PM...SMITHBURG AROUND 310 PM AND AUBURN AROUND 320 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
157 AND 175 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3934 8088 3930 8088 3934 8084 3931 8058
      3929 8060 3925 8056 3914 8063 3914 8066
      3909 8071 3909 8073 3903 8073 3896 8091
      3906 8181 3919 8158 3935 8138 3934 8135
      3938 8129

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             IRONTON                 38.53N  82.68W
07/08/2014  E0.25 INCH       LAWRENCE           OH   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1401057

FB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

OHZ087-WVZ006-007-014-015-081945-
CABELL WV-KANAWHA WV-LAWRENCE OH-MASON WV-PUTNAM WV-
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND NORTHERN CABELL...NORTHWESTERN KANAWHA...EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN MASON AND CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTIES IN WEST VIRGINIA UNTIL
345 PM EDT...

AT 259 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PROCTORVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MILTON AROUND 310 PM...HURRICANE AROUND 320
PM...TEAYS VALLEY AROUND 330 PM...CROSS LANES AROUND 340 PM AND
SISSONVILLE AROUND 350 PM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 13 AND 57 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 96 AND
116 IN WEST VIRGINIA...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3857 8237 3856 8164 3855 8163 3856 8162
      3856 8152 3832 8154 3836 8205 3837 8205
      3837 8210 3839 8238

12