Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Charleston, WV

962 
WWUS51 KRLX 032104
SVSRLX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
504 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

OHC009-115-167-032115-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-140603T2115Z/
ATHENS OH-MORGAN OH-WASHINGTON OH-
504 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN AND EASTERN ATHENS
COUNTIES...

AT 502 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR AMESVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATHENS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BARTLETT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO FALL FROM THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...AND
WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES
AND SMALL STREAMS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...800-401-9535...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

YOU MAY ALSO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3944 8210 3946 8208 3950 8197 3938 8170
      3921 8189 3940 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 303DEG 25KT 3938 8195

$$

14

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BEFORE STALLING
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST RADAR LOOP INDICATES WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OHIO. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING
THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF SUNSHINE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY LATE TONIGHT. IT APPEARS FRONT WILL STALL OUT EITHER
JUST TO OUR SOUTH OR ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE.

FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
AND WPC QPF SUGGEST SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP INVOF WARM
FRONT AND MOVE NORTH WITH IT.

SPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA IN SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
AFTER 00Z THU. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL DOMINATE. ONE LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THIS REPRESENTS THE MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW PER GFS/CMC RATHER THAN THE FARTHER NORTH
NAM TRACK WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL USE THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD GFS SPEED FOR THIS SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE THE
FRONT DROP INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EXIT THE
AREA BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. AT THIS EARLY STAGE...WOULD HAVE TO
CORRELATE THE POPS WITH THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...SINCE IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY MESOSCALE INFLUENCES THROUGH EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF ANY MESOSCALE COMPLEXES THAT WOULD DEVELOP. THUS...WILL
BRING CAT POPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
TAPERING POPS OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MAINLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES. A FEW STORMS MAY BE ON THE
STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SEVERE SIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THE OTHER
HAND...NOT EXPECTING WATER PROBLEMS AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE.

GUIDANCE CLOSE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS
MOVING IN THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY..IN THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWED HPC CLOSELY WITH THE LOW AND COLD FRONT RIDING THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WHICH BRINGS IT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE AT THIS DISTANT TIME DOES HAVE A BIT MORE
AMPLITUDE WHICH WILL LIKELY DRAG THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A GOOD WARMUP AND MOISTURE INFLUX
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO. SO...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT EXITS DURING
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER AIR NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF REGION. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS
WERE DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY
MVFR...LCL IFR...IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT REGIONS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

EXPECT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH 00Z WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THAT TIME.

COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED STORMS WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN ADDITION...WET GROUND...LIGHT WINDS
AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER FAVORED LOCATIONS.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH MVFR...
LOCAL IFR...CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY COULD VARY BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
OCCASIONAL IFR IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH/JMV
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-040845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE TIMING AND THE LEVEL OF THE THREAT REMAIN IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
LOCALIZED HIGH WATER MAY ALSO BE SEEN IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
REPEATED DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KMC / TRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

OHZ066-031845-
PERRY OH-
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SOMERSET...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CROOKSVILLE AROUND 230 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3992 8218 3991 8217 3990 8216 3983 8216
      3983 8210 3981 8207 3973 8208 3973 8209
      3980 8240 3993 8241

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

OHZ067-031915-
MORGAN OH-
236 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
PERRY STATE FOREST...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR EAGLEPORT AROUND 315 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3977 8177 3976 8175 3975 8174 3956 8183
      3967 8203 3972 8203 3973 8208 3978 8207

14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

OHZ075-032100-
ATHENS OH-
422 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ATHENS COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 419 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF
NELSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL
CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR CHAUNCEY AROUND 430 PM...ATHENS AROUND 435 PM
AND STROUD RUN STATE PARK AROUND 440 PM.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3949 8205 3946 8206 3946 8200 3935 8185
      3932 8185 3930 8182 3927 8181 3927 8173
      3926 8172 3919 8191 3945 8229 3947 8229
      3947 8218 3955 8217 3956 8214

14