Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THIS EVENING.  LEAD COLD FRONT CROSSES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSS TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
FCST STILL ON TRACK...WITH THE USUAL FINE-TUNING BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS.

1015 PM UPDATE...
FCST BASICALLY ON TRACK OUTSIDE OF MINOR TIMING ADJUSTMENTS ON THE
RAINFALL.  ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER
DARK.  DO HAVE A LITTLE DOUBT ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
FARTHER E OVERNIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST WITH WEAK S/W TROUGH OVER TN
VALLEY ESPECIALLY GIVEN UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE W.

730 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDING TO CURRENT TRENDS AND HRRR...MOSTLY MINOR
TIMING ADJUSTMENTS.  LEAD UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
ACTIVITY NOW IN MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...PROBABLY WITH SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY.

PREV DISCN...
SFC LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN TODAY PUSHING THE WARM
FRONT NORTH THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA.  SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN AND ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF
THUNDER.  MEANWHILE A COMPLEX HAS MOVED EAST AND WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS BRINGING WITH IT A GREATER CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER.  SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTAIN
DOWNPOURS...LEADING TO SOME LOCALIZED WATER PROBLEMS.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY
BRINGING MORE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  INSTABILITY IS
NOT IDEAL BUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP JUST A BIT BETWEEN SHOWERS...WHICH WILL MAKE
TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY. WENT WITH THE BCCONSALL BUT LOWERED THE
TEMPS A BIT IN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE MOST CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE REGARDING FORECAST REASONING WITH WHAT MIDNIGHT
SHIFT HAD. TUE EVE WILL FEATURE COLD FRONT EXITING WITH BAND OF
SHRA. AS UPPER TROF MOVES IN...CARRIED LOW POPS REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS FOR THE AREA IN
CAA. BEEFED UP SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORE OF A LOW STRATUS DECK
EVENTUALLY MIXING INTO FAIRLY EXPANSIVE STRATOCU LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. NW FLOW BECOMES THE STAPLE IN
YET ANOTHER ANOMALOUS TROF FOR THIS SEASON AND WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...SUSPECT SOME AFTERNOON SHRA WILL
BREAK OUT ACROSS THE N. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ON THURSDAY WITH WITH
JUST CU OR STRATOCU FIELD. MAYBE A BETTER FOG NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
IF WE CAN LOSE THE CLOUDS.

FOR TEMPS...BLENDED IN ALLBLEND WITH INHERITED NUMBERS

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEPT FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW BUT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
FEW AFTERNOON SHRA WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING DOWN.
OTHERWISE...A GOOD WEEKEND SHAPING UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. TEMPS WILL MODERATE TO MORE TYPICAL NUMBERS...HOWEVER THE
NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLEASANT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NEXT 24 HRS WITH
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR
ALL SITES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY BRINGING ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SPECIFICALLY...A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM SE OHIO SOUTHWARD THROUGH PKB-CRW...AND
SOUTH INTO THE COALFIELDS...WITH LESS PRECIP EAST OR WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT
IFR IS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOUR OR BRIEFLY IN POST RAIN
LOW STRATUS.

THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY BRING POST RAIN STRATUS AND
MIST...MOSTLY MVFR BUT IFR STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW
FROM OUT OF THE GATE ON UPSLOPE SE FLOW THERE.

A LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS TUE AFTERNOON...LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.

SFC FLOW WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST ON
TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO VARY WITH LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION...AND OVERNIGHT IN POST RAIN STRATUS AND MIST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 08/12/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE NT...AND IN
POST RAIN STRATUS AND POSSIBLE FOG WED MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50/LS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>007-013>015-024>026-
033>036-121145-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-JACKSON OH-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
737 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA CONTINUE TO BE VERY WET. IT WILL TAKE
FEW DOWNPOURS TO PRODUCE WATER PROBLEMS ON THESE AREAS. IF
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS HIT THESE AREAS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE POSTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032-037>040-046-
047-121145-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-VINTON-MEIGS-JACKSON WV-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
737 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAIN...ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN DOWNPOURS.

IF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE APPARENT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE POSTED FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
118 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

WVZ007-008-014-016-017-120615-
JACKSON WV-MASON WV-PUTNAM WV-ROANE WV-WIRT WV-
118 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN ROANE...SOUTHWESTERN
WIRT...JACKSON...SOUTHERN MASON AND NORTHERN PUTNAM COUNTIES IN WEST
VIRGINIA UNTIL 215 AM EDT...

AT 114 AM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LOCATED 9
MILES NORTH OF WINFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM...AND COMBINED WITH
THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS...WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR GIVEN AROUND 140 AM...RIPLEY AROUND
150 AM...GAY AROUND 200 AM...LEROY AROUND 210 AM AND REEDY AROUND 220
AM...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN TH AREA.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
125 AND 156 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3888 8126 3849 8194 3866 8211 3904 8161
      3903 8158 3907 8153 3909 8150 3908 8149

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

OHZ066-067-120630-
MORGAN OH-PERRY OH-
129 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

AT 124 AM EDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LOCATED
OVER LOGAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM...AND COMBINED WITH
THE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING...WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR NEW STRAITSVILLE AROUND 140 AM...
HEMLOCK AROUND 150 AM...CORNING AROUND 200 AM...MALTA AROUND 220 AM
AND BRISTOL AROUND 230 AM...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
TH AREA.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3976 8164 3968 8163 3966 8158 3960 8159
      3959 8171 3956 8172 3948 8205 3955 8205
      3955 8226 3959 8227 3960 8238 3977 8190

12

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

WVZ011-017>020-029>032-120745-
CALHOUN WV-DODDRIDGE WV-GILMER WV-HARRISON WV-LEWIS WV-RITCHIE WV-
TAYLOR WV-TYLER WV-WIRT WV-
214 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR RITCHIE...TYLER...TAYLOR...EASTERN
WIRT...NORTHERN CALHOUN...DODDRIDGE...GILMER...HARRISON AND NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM EDT...

AT 205 AM EDT...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LOCATED OVER GRANTSVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR SMITHVILLE AROUND 220 AM...TANNER...
CEDAR CREEK STATE PARK...AND CAIRO AROUND 225 AM...BURNT HOUSE...AND
NORTH BEND STATE PARK AROUND 230 AM...NEWBERNE...AND HARRISVILLE
AROUND 235 AM...COXS MILLS AND BEREA AROUND 240 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-79 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
88 AND 129.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3948 8071 3944 8055 3947 8047 3944 8028
      3940 8020 3940 8015 3928 8001 3924 8006
      3923 8018 3917 8023 3912 8023 3910 8030
      3906 8031 3895 8045 3880 8115 3909 8146
      3952 8074

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

OHZ067-075-076-120745-
ATHENS OH-MORGAN OH-WASHINGTON OH-
252 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN
MORGAN AND EASTERN ATHENS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM EDT...

AT 240 AM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHESTERHILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOILS ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN NEAR SATURATION. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CAPABLE TO PRODUCE AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR CHESTERHILL AROUND 255 AM...STOCKPORT
AROUND 305 AM...BEVERLY AROUND 325 AM...LOWELL AROUND 340 AM AND
MACKSBURG AROUND 345 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...I-77 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
8 AND 17 IN OHIO.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

YOU MAY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY POSTING YOUR REPORT TO THE
CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR
BY USING THE TWITTER HASHTAG...NWSRLX.

LAT...LON 3968 8163 3966 8158 3959 8158 3959 8149
      3964 8148 3965 8146 3961 8139 3960 8129
      3961 8127 3958 8125 3958 8123 3934 8194
      3950 8204 3974 8164

08

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