Special Weather Statement, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
107 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT HAS BEEN OVER JACKSON HOLE HAS VANISHED
BUT IT TOOK UNTIL 1230...IMPRESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER. THE MAIN MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE GREAT SALT LAKE
OF UTAH. THIS CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO DRIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO AND INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS IT
DOES...THE NEXT ASCT WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT LOBE WILL DRIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE ARE NO DISTINCT
SURFACE BOUNDARIES ASCT WITH THIS FEATURE SO NOTHING TOO SEVERE IS
ANTICIPATED. WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WE SHOULD WITNESS SCT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL
TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MOST COMMON
ELEMENTS. ATTM...JUST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND BUT
THE CUMULUS FIELD IS BEGINNING TO BUILD WHEREVER CATHY AC IS NOT
INTERFERING. SHOULD SEE A REPEAT OF LATE DAY CONVECTION FRIDAY
WITH THE CLOSED CIRCULATION MORPHING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
TRACKS EAST ACROSS WY. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME FRIDAY AS
TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

WY UNDER W SIDE OF GENTLE RIDGING WITH OPENING SW TROF MOVING UP AND
THRU WRN/NRN/NCNTRL FA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA ONGOING TOO. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE
BEEN PARTIALLY DIURNALLY FORCED...THERE SHOULD STILL BE JUST
ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO KEEP SOME SHRA ACTIVITY ONGOING AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT WANING ALL THE SAME.
VERY SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WILL TYPIFY THIS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE
EVENING WITH MOST STUCK ON/NEAR THE HILLS AND POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER ISOLATED LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY...END OF UPR SW MOVES ACROSS AND DRAGS SFC FRONT THRU THE
CWA FROM N TO S...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE FA...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ERN COUNTIES. A COUPLE
OF STRONGER STORMS MIGHT ALSO BE FOUND OVR NATRONA OR JOHNSON COUNTY
ALTHOUGH NO SVR WX IS EXPECTED. PWS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER AND
CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...SO IF THE AREA IS LUCKY...HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE LESS OVERALL
UNLESS A STORM HAPPENS TO HIT ONE OF THE SAME LOCATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE OR TWO DAYS.

SUNDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH P RAPIDLY FILLING IN ACROSS THE
ERN CWA AND LOW P INTO THE SWRN CW WILL BRING WINDS BACK AROUND OUT
OF THE E OVR MUCH OF THE FA. BEST PRECIP/CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVR
THE ERN CWA NEARER THE LOW/FRONTAL ZONE WHERE BETTER FORCING IS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED THUNDER
GENERALLY FOUND TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA AS WEST PORTION OF BROAD
ERN CONUS TROF BRUSHES THE AREA.

MON THRU THU...LR MDLS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT THRU TUE FOR THE MOST
PART WITH RIDGING AND WARMING MAXING OUT BY LATE DAY ON TUE...MAKING
IT THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FCST PERIOD. MONDAY AND TUE WILL HAVE
LOWER OVERALL CHCS FOR PRECIP AS RIDGE BUILDING AND SOMEWHAT MORE
STABILITY IN THE LOWER LVLS CONDITIONS PRECLUDES WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY....WITH THE BEST CHCS FOR CI OCCURRING DIURNALLY OVR THE
MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS. TUE NIGHT THRU THE END
OF THE FCST PERIOD...MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...BUT THERE STILL SEEMS A
STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL FOR INCREASED PRECIP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
AS THE NEXT STRONGER UPR SW TROF AFFECTS THE CWA...ALTHOUGH MDLS
ARE HANDLING THE OUTCOME A BIT DIFFERENTLY...BOTH SPATIALLY AND
TEMPORALLY...BOTH DO HINT AT LEE TROFFING FOLLOWED BY UPR WAVE AND
SFC FRONT ROLLING THRU. TIMING DIFFERENCE SEEM TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE
AT THIS POINT...BUT DECIDED TO BROADEN THE PRIMARY PRECIP TARGET OVR
THE TUE NIGHT THRU WED TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN IDAHO AND
NORTHERN NEVADA WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY EAST INTO WYOMING AND MONTANA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INCREASING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
-TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST AREA OF INSTABILITY AND FOR
STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE APPROXIMATELY
FROM SW WYOMING ACROSS THE SOUTH PASS AREA INTO VCNTY KLND-KRIW-
KCPR BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN WITH BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL
SPREAD INTO THE WEST AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SW AND CENTRAL WY AND NORTH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARMING TREND CONTINUE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATER
FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE ANTICIPATED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE FIRE BEHAVIOR REMAINS LOW.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

WYZ001>020-022>030-081200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
400 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTH AND
WEST. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORM RAIN
PERSISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS.
THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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