Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
354 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWING RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WRN BORDER OF WY...TROFFING
EAST WITH EMBEDDED SW/WEAK JET STREAK EXITING EWD...A WEAK VORT MAX
CRESTING THE RIDGE NOW...AND ANOTHER SW/JET OVR THE GREAT BASIN. AT
THE SFC...LOW P STILL OF THE SW...HIGH(ER) PRESSURE OFF TO THE NE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WITH THREE WEAK BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
CWA...ONE ACTING LIKE A VERY WEAK FRONT AND STILL DRAPED ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS E OF THE DIVIDE. THE OTHERS ARE
ASSOCIATED W/ THE SW LOW...WITH WEAK INVERTED LOBES STRETCHING TO
THE N ALONG OUR WRN BORDER WITH ID...AND THE OTHER POINTED EWD
ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY INTO ERN FREMONT AND THEN E INTO NATRONA
COUNTY. THIS SET-UP OFFERS UP A FEW DIFFERING CONVERGENCE ZONES IN
ADDITION TO THE MOUNTAINS. ERLY FLOW E AND N OF THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY...WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. HIGHER CAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN SHOWING ALONG AND N OF THIS
BOUNDARY IN THE MORE ERLY FLOW...GIVING SOME ADDITIONAL FOCUS AND
STRENGTH TO POSSIBLE STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
THOSE THAT MAKE IT OFF FROM THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE WEAK
RIDGE RUNNING SW WILL RIDE OVR THE FA BY MID-DAY...HELPING TO SPARK
EARLIER CONVECTION EVEN AS HEIGHTS ARE ON THE RISE. ATTM...STORM
PARAMETERS LOOK TO REMAIN MOSTLY AOB SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER STRONGER
STORMS AND ISOLATED SVR MAY STRETCH ALONG/NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN SFC
BOUNDARY AND A BIT FURTHER INTO THE CENTRAL CWA TODAY WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR HOVERING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS...INCREASING SOMEWHAT EARLY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE FA FROM
WEST TO EAST IS CURRENTLY KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION W OF THE DIVIDE
UNDER CONTROL EARLY. BIG HORNS CURRENTLY CAPPED BUT IN SUNSHINE WILL
LIKELY GO LATER AFTER THE SRN ABSAROKAS WHICH ARE LESS CAPPED...THEN
PORTIONS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY OVR SWEETWATER AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES
NEXT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR OPENING IN THE SHIELD FOR CI TO OCCUR
ELSEWHERE. THIS MAY ALSO KEEP SFC HIGHS FROM REACHING FCST LVLS...OR
MAY OCCUR RATHER LATE IF THEY DO.

WED BEGINS WITH UPR RIDGE CENTERED OVR WY WITH GREAT BASIN LOW
BUILDING INTO SWRN WY...WITH A KINDA/SORTA WARM FRONT/INVERTED TROF
EXTENDING TO THE NE THEN N ALONG THE BIG HORNS. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR TO SERLY LL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NRN NATRONA COUNTY AND ALL OF
JOHNSON COUNTY...WITH DECENT MOISTURE RETURN THRU AT LEAST THE
MORNING PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A WEAK RIDGE
RUNNING SW/JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...AT
LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ALONG/NEAR TROF/FRONT/BOUNDARY
N OF THE SFC LOW ALONG WITH WHAT CAN GO OVR THE BIG HORNS. PLACEMENT
OF THE TROF/FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL MEAN EVERYTHING AT THIS TIME...WITH
MOST SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING ALONG/EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE CAPE
RANGING FROM 1200 TO 2000 J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN
OUR FA FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE GETTING SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE ERN
BORDER. A LITTLE OF EVERYTHING COULD OCCUR...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND/OR AND ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE SOME SFC BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED
UNTIL A FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE ERN COUNTIES IN RESPONSE TO
MID/UPR FORCING AND THE RETREAT OF THE SW SFC LOW AND ANY DEVELOPING
LEE LOW IN CO.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL SWING A VORT LOBE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS PARENT
LOW THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THIS VORT LOBE
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JOHNSON AND NATRONA
COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST CAPE WILL BE. THURSDAY WILL BE A REPEAT
OF WEDNESDAY BUT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
BIG HORN AND JOHNSON COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST SOUTHWEST BREEZES
ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SFC GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH EVERY 24 HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER A CLOSED LOW WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL MONTANA CANADIAN BORDER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
MAIN TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE
NUMEROUS MAINLY LATE DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUDS
WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THE MAIN TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE COOLEST WEATHER OF THE WEEK TO OCCUR SUNDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS BUT NOT AS COOL AS TEMPS WERE TWO WEEKENDS AGO. THE THREAT
OF LATE DAY T STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
A WEAK SHORT LIVED COOL FRONT DUE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY. NEXT
TUESDAY SHOULD FEATURE THE LEAST LIKELY DAY FOR ANY SHOWERS AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THU.
HOWEVER...HEATING DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE
AREA...MOVING E OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AT AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH
AT LEAST 03Z. HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND
VIS...CONTINUING TO EFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 3Z-4Z WITH
LINGERING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FROM 4Z-7Z WED...PERHAPS UNTIL 9Z AT KCPR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTER 19Z...ALBEIT A
BIT MORE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN KCPR AND KBYG AFTER 20Z.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z THU.
HOWEVER...HEATING DURING THE DAY AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE WIDELY SCT TO SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE
AREA...MOVING E OVER THE LOWER VALLEYS AT AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH 03Z.
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 03Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BRING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND
VIS...CONTINUING TO EFFECT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 3Z WITH LINGERING
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA FROM 3Z-5Z WED...PERHAPS UNTIL 8Z AT KJAC. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTER 19Z...ALBEIT A BIT MORE
ISOLATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARMER AGAIN MOST AREAS TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG/NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
EASTERN ZONE 283...AND ALL OF 289 AND 280...WHERE UP TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS...LOCALLY HIGHER IF THE SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN TERRAIN
TIED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL TEND OUT OF THE EAST EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH...HIGHER AND
MORE ERRATIC UNDER/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN DISPATCH ZONES.
WARMER EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WEST BEHIND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE HIGH TEMPS WILL RUN UP TO 5 DEG COOLER THAN
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS ALL ZONES EXCEPT
FOR THE SOUTHERN DISPATCH ZONES WHICH WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST FOR MOST ZONES AS THE FRONT MEANDERS EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY. STRONGER GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL LAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES 277 278 279 AND 289 WHERE WHERE IN COMBINATION WITH
MIN RH VALUES OF MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS...WILL ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR ANY FIRE THAN GET STARTED...ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE NOT
CONSIDERED CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
400 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

WYZ001>020-022>030-251200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
400 AM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION
EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
WITH HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE GUSTY WIND AND HAIL.

FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.

SATURDAY...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO REPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.

TEAM RIVERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
525 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

WYZ017>019-250030-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE WY-LANDER FOOTHILLS WY-WIND
RIVER BASIN WY-
525 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM MDT...

AT 518 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GAS HILLS RD MILE
MARKER 10 TO 13 MILES NORTH OF U.S. HWY 287 MILE MARKER 30 TO CROOKS
GAP...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
GAS HILLS RD MILE MARKER 10 AND JEFFREY CITY AROUND 530 PM MDT.
CASTLE GARDENS AROUND 630 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4305 10758 4237 10758 4237 10832 4305 10832
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 270DEG 15KT 4301 10823 4270 10789
          4232 10788

BRAUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
552 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

WYZ014-023>030-250200-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-
SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-STAR VALLEY-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
552 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THROUGH 8 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...EVEN FROM WEAK
SHOWER ACTIVITY.  IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECT
SMALL HAIL...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
554 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

WYZ007-017-250100-
OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS WY-WIND RIVER BASIN WY-
554 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM MDT...

AT 547 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF PAVILLION TO PILOT BUTTE RESERVOIR...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OCEAN LAKE AROUND 600 PM MDT.
BOYSEN STATE PARK HEADQUARTERS AND BOYSEN STATE PARK AROUND 640 PM
MDT.
HIDDEN VALLEY AROUND 655 PM MDT.
SHOSHONI AROUND 700 PM MDT.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES
AND UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A
FLOODED ROADWAY.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4345 10784 4309 10815 4314 10887 4345 10856
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 271DEG 20KT 4337 10850 4321 10866

BRAUN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
603 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

WYZ002>007-250200-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-CODY FOOTHILLS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-
603 PM MDT TUE JUN 24 2014

THROUGH 8 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST INTO
THE BIG HORN BASIN. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BIG HORN BASIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IN A
SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

21

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