Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1244 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A FEW STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY DECREASE BY EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED TODAY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL AND FAIRLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT FLOW...ABUNDANT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME
HEATING IS ALREADY STARTING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FAVORED DEVELOPMENT AREAS FROM MONO COUNTY TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE BASIN AND RANGE. CONVECTION
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME
INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW WE ARE EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO PUSH OUT OF
THE TAHOE BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS MODELS TRY TO DIG A
CLOSED LOW DOWN THE CA COAST. THIS WOULD ALLOW A BIT MORE MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT MAY INHIBIT THE NORTHERN
CWA FROM DEVELOPING QUITE AS MUCH. THE PRESENCE OF INCREASE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW MY ALSO ACT TO TEMPORARILY PUSH ACTIVITY OUT OF
TAHOE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FOR NOW WE DO NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE TO MAKE THAT CHANGE. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED COVERAGE WOULD APPEAR TO BE FROM MONO COUNTY NORTH INTO
THE PINE NUTS AND JUST EAST OF THE CARSON RANGE IN WESTERN NEVADA.

THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS A LITTLE BY SUNDAY AND DIGS FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD PUT THE NORTHERN CWA IN THE MORE FAVORABLE NE QUADRANT
AND INCREASE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER NE CA AND FAR NW NV. LOW TO
MID BACKING OF THE FLOW SHOULD ALSO ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO BE
DRAWN NORTH. UNLIKE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND HEAVY RAIN THE BIGGEST THREAT...THE STORM
MOTIONS SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS MID LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN. FOR THE NORTH
STORMS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND TRAINING
CELLS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES OUTSIDE OF THE CELLS SUNDAY...BUT FUELS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST OVER MUCH OF NE CA...SO FOR NOW THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT MAY BE MUTED. 20

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CA COAST SHOULD PROVIDE ONE MORE DAY OF
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL FORECASTS
IN TERMS OF THE INLAND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AS A STRONGER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST. MOST FORECASTS INDICATE A DRIER AIR
MASS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV TUESDAY BUT SOME FORECASTS SHOW
FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR LIFT. AS SUCH, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INTRODUCED FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN
NV, EXCLUDING MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SPREAD AMONG MODEL FORECASTS HAS BECOME LARGER THAN
IT WAS YESTERDAY, WHICH MAKES WED-FRI A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
FOR NOW, THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THE MORE CONSISTENT
GFS WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WED-FRI. JCM
&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. A
LITTLE MORE WESTERLY FLOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL HELP PUSH THE
CONVECTION EAST OF THE TAHOE BASIN AND MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE
RENO-CARSON CITY AREA BY 00Z. MAIN IMPACT FROM STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
OUTFLOW TO 20-25KT IN THE SIERRA AND AROUND 35KT FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANCHORED TO THE EASTERN SIERRA THIS
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW, ISOLATED NOCTURNAL
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT/SUN NIGHTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE
MARTIS VALLEY BURNING OFF AROUND 16Z EACH MORNING WHEN IT DOES
FORM. MITTELSTADT/HOHMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
119 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

CAZ070-071-073-NVZ001-003>005-082230-
SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-
EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-MONO-MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDARVILLE...EAGLEVILLE...
FORT BIDWELL...PORTOLA...SUSANVILLE...WESTWOOD...SIERRAVILLE...
LOYALTON...BRIDGEPORT...COLEVILLE...LEE VINING...MAMMOTH LAKES...
HAWTHORNE...YERINGTON...SMITH VALLEY...MINA...SCHURZ...SPARKS...
VERDI...GARDNERVILLE...VIRGINIA CITY...FERNLEY...FALLON...
LOVELOCK...SILVER SPRINGS...NIXON...IMLAY...EMPIRE...GERLACH
119 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE REGION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEVELOPING EAST OF A LINE FROM MONO LAKE TO TOPAZ TO SUSANVILLE.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. CURRENTLY
THESE STORMS ARE RAINING THEMSELVES OUT AND THEN CREATING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE VERY BRIEF.

WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING...THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER BY LATE AFTERNOON. AFTER 3 PM THE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONGER TO PRODUCE LONGER LIVED HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED STORMS OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF UP TO 45 MPH COULD ALSO
OCCUR LATER THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
225 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             4 NE LEMMON VALLEY      39.67N 119.79W
08/08/2014  M0.25 INCH       WASHOE             NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL AND PEA
            SIZED HAIL.

&&

MCGUIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

NVZ004-082230-
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
248 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING BETWEEN FERNLEY AND SILVER
SPRINGS...

AT 242 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF STAGECOACH...OR 15 MILES WEST
OF LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 45 MPH...WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 330 PM PDT INCLUDE...LAHONTAN
  RESERVOIR...SILVER SPRINGS...FERNLEY - TIGER FIELD AIRPORT...SILVER
  SPRINGS AIRPORT AND US 50 AT LYON-CHURCHILL CO LINE.

THE STORM WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS ALTERNATE HIGHWAY 95 BETWEEN FERNLEY
AND SILVER SPRINGS.

DURING A THUNDERSTORM...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A
VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 11927 3966 11911 3941 11900 3938 11942
      3946 11940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 248DEG 10KT 3946 11934

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
305 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

CAZ071-082230-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
305 PM PDT FRI AUG 8 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRENCHMAN LAKE...

AT 301 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FRENCHMAN LAKE AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 4007 12021 3993 12003 3981 12026 3987 12033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 224DEG 11KT 3990 12024

JCM