Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
952 AM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND A LACK OF FORCING EARLY SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
HEATING KICKS IN. UPPER LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF NV BY LATE TODAY. THIS COULD LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE
ACROSS NE CA AND NW NV DUE TO SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER...
ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH HEATING FROM BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATES TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM PDT WED AUG 6 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE SPARSE TODAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
CALIFORNIA WEAKENS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST COULD KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TODAY AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION
SINCE MONDAY HAS ELONGATED AND WEAKENED. TWO RESIDUAL CIRCULATION
CENTERS REMAIN, WITH ONE OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA AND THE OTHER OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MUCH LIGHTER AND NARROWER BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN AREAS NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH THIS MORNING.
DUE TO RAIN WHICH FELL YESTERDAY EVENING BRINGING HUMIDITY NEAR
100 PERCENT, PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING NEAR TRUCKEE AND FROM RENO EASTWARD TO LOVELOCK AND FALLON
IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE BEFORE DAYBREAK.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ONE FINAL BAND OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BACKS
INTO NORTHWEST NV AND NORTHEAST CA, BUT RAIN WILL BE LIGHTER AND
COVER LESS AREA COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, MINERAL AND
MONO COUNTY HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LOW MOVES OVER THIS AREA, AND SKIES WILL START
THE DAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR QUICKER HEATING. ELSEWHERE,
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FINISHED.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT, WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG MAINLY AROUND TRUCKEE, SIERRA VALLEY, AND
OTHER FOG PRONE VALLEYS IN WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY WHERE HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS WEEK.

ON THURSDAY, LITTLE TO NO FORCING IS INDICATED ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE AND A BIT MORE HEATING COULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY NEAR THE SIERRA AND INTO THE LASSEN CONVERGENCE
ZONE. A FEW CELLS MAY PROPAGATE INTO FAR WESTERN NV BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN AFTER DUSK.

BY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WHICH MAY PROVIDE BETTER FORCING TO GO WITH THE CONTINUED MOIST
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION FORMING IN THE SIERRA SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH A BIT
FARTHER EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MODEST ZEPHYR DEVELOPS
OVER WESTERN NEVADA. MJD

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODEL DATA FOR THIS WEEKEND AND THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST, BUT
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON ITS POSITION AND STRENGTH. THE 00Z GFS
HAS ENTERED A NEW POTENTIAL OUTCOME BY DEVELOPING A LOW OFF THE
OREGON COAST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF
HIGHWAY 395 AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS ALONG
THE SIERRA FRONT. HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SOLUTION. OVERALL WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST,
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY. BY
TUESDAY THE MODELS TRY TO ERODE THE TROUGH OR PUSH IT INLAND,
WHICH MAY LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BRONG

AVIATION...

LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL DRIFT EAST WITH DEFORMATION BAND ALONG AND
NORTH OF KTRK-KRNO-KLOL. UNDER THE DEFORMATION BAND, SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AND A 5-10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. SOUTH
OF KTRK-KRNO-KLOL, CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW STRONGER SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY FOR A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER IF CLOUDS
DEVELOP TOO QUICKLY, THE OVERDEVELOPED SKIES MAY INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORMS. IF STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KTS.

FOR THURSDAY, LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF SUSANVILLE-
HAWTHORNE. BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
139 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

CAZ073-NVZ001-062100-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-MONO-
139 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONO LAKE...

AT 129 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONO LAKE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND
GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST...WILL OCCUR WITH
THIS STORM. MOTORISTS TRAVELING ON STATE ROUTE/POLE LINE ROAD MAY
ENCOUNTER HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 11895 3831 11864 3785 11872 3785 11899
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 135DEG 2KT 3805 11881

TF