Special Weather Statement, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
201 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OVER CALIFORNIA. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR MID WEEK WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOMORROW BETWEEN THE HIGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. HOWEVER,
A FEW WAVES AND A JET STREAK WILL PASS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH DUE TO INCREASED STORM
MOTIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MAIN FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS ACROSS
ALPINE, MONO AND WESTERN NEVADA WEST OF HAWTHORNE TO PYRAMID LAKE
WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN THE STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH AND
HAIL. THE STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 9 PM, BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS A WAVE AND DEFORMATION ZONE
MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.

BEHIND THE WAVE...THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH STORM MOTION INCREASING TO 10 MPH OR MORE. THIS WILL LOWER
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, THOUGH THE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE LOW AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, HAIL
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

ON MONDAY THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE
SIERRA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES OVER
MONO COUNTY. BEST CHANCE FOR MONDAY IS NORTH AND WEST OF TRUCKEE
TO GERLACH, AS THE JET SETS UP OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 AND A
WAVES PASSES ACROSS NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS
ON MONDAY ARE GUSTY OUTFLOWS AND HAIL.

MODELS PUSH A SECOND WAVE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING, WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF PORTOLA-RENO-FALLON. BRONG

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER AND THE ON-GOING
FORECAST. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
AS A WAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AFTER TUESDAY EVENING,
DRY AIR RETURNS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
DISRUPT THE MOISTURE FLUX OUT OF THE SOUTH RESULTING IN DRIER MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS BECOMING FAIRLY QUIET AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
DRASTICALLY DIMINISH.

AFTER THE WAVE PASSES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WEEK, RIDGING WILL SHIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH INTENSIFYING
OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEVADA, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TOWARD
TRIPLE DIGITS. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF RETURNING MOISTURE FOR
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IF THE NEXT COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS THERMAL TROUGH POSITION WHICH FAVORS INCREASED
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA FROM ALPINE TO MONO COUNTY. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE CUMULUS TO SOME ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS HAVE ALREADY
FORMED FROM MONO COUNTY THROUGH THE TAHOE BASIN. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FOR SIERRA TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT, SO WILL
CARRY AT LEAST VCTS FOR CXP AND RNO AS WELL. TURBULENCE IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 45 KTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. STORMS MAY
PERSIST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

COVERAGE SHOULD BE SIMILAR SUNDAY AND NOW MONDAY LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE DAY AS WELL. THE STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY HAVE MORE HAIL
AND STRONGER WINDS. CONDITIONS BECOME DRIER WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS. BOYD/20

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ001>003.

CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ072-073.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
423 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             1 NE MOUNT ROSE SKI ARE 39.34N 119.87W
07/19/2014  M0.25 INCH       WASHOE             NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL, FREQUENT
            LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

MCGUIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
427 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NVZ002-003-200030-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-
427 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...STRONG STORMS IMPACTING WASHOE VALLEY AND CARSON CITY...

AT 423 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GALENA TO CARSON
CITY AIRPORT...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH PER
HOUR...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...WILL OCCUR
WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 530 PM PDT INCLUDE...INCLINE VILLAGE...
  CARSON CITY...LAKEVIEW...MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT...NEW WASHOE CITY AND
  WASHOE CITY.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 580, 395, AND MT ROSE HIGHWAY.
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE. DRIVERS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF ENCOUNTERING
HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3946 11991 3936 11975 3923 11962 3910 11972
      3916 11987 3928 12000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 027DEG 6KT 3935 11989 3922 11972

CS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
431 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CAZ071-072-200030-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA
COUNTIES-
431 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...HEAVY RAIN ALONG HIGHWAY 89 NEAR STAMPEDE RESERVOIR...

AT 423 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF PROSSER CREEK RESERVOIR. THIS
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH PER
HOUR...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 530 PM PDT INCLUDE...CA 89 AT
NEVADA-SIERRA CO LINE...HOBART MILLS...LAKESIDE CAMPGROUND AND UPPER
LITTLE TRUCKEE CAMPGROUND.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS. IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 12013 3935 12015 3935 12018 3946 12027
      3949 12024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 270DEG 0KT 3944 12020

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
437 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE CARSON CITY       39.21N 119.75W
07/19/2014  U0.00 INCH       CARSON CITY        NV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL,
            WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

MCGUIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
439 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

CAZ071-200115-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
439 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES AROUND LAKE DAVIS...

AT 432 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE DAVIS...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BECKWOURTH. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN SINCE 230 PM.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH PER
HOUR...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...WILL OCCUR
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 615 PM PDT INCLUDE...LAKE DAVIS...
  GRASSHOPPER FLAT CAMPGROUND...GRIZZLY CAMPGROUND AND LIGHTNING TREE
  CAMPGROUND.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS. IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...MINOR ROCK SLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 12064 3998 12043 3986 12044 3984 12059
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 270DEG 0KT 3992 12053

BOYD