Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Reno, NV

647 
WWUS55 KREV 102315
SVSREV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
415 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

CAC017-061-102345-
/O.CON.KREV.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-140810T2345Z/
EL DORADO CA-PLACER CA-
415 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM PDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL PLACER AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN EL DORADO
COUNTIES...

AT 412 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HOMEWOOD...OR NEAR ALPINE MEADOWS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...ALPINE MEADOWS...HOMEWOOD...
  SUNNYSIDE-TAHOE CITY...TAHOE CITY...SUGAR PINE POINT S AND SQUAW
  VALLEY.

HIKERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY FROM A STORM SUCH AS THIS 
ONE. ALSO...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR OVER WESTERN LAKE TAHOE OUT OF 
THIS STORM. BOATERS AND SWIMMERS SHOULD STAY OFF THE LAKE.

LAT...LON 3923 12013 3905 12006 3898 12018 3898 12020
      3923 12026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 143DEG 13KT 3910 12022

$$

BOYD

120 
WWUS55 KREV 102343
SVSREV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

CAC017-061-102351-
/O.EXP.KREV.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-140810T2345Z/
EL DORADO CA-PLACER CA-
443 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL PLACER AND
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN EL DORADO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM PDT...

THE STORMS THAT EARLIER PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAVE
MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST...THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL EXPIRE 
AT 445 PM.

LAT...LON 3923 12013 3905 12006 3898 12018 3898 12020
      3923 12026
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 143DEG 13KT 3918 12030

$$

JHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
120 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS CELLS TRAIN. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR
A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRY LIGHTNING. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BE MONDAY, WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE, JUST ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND SOME TIMING BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. A CLOSED
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST PROVIDING AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR THE REGION. A JET STREAK IS MOVING INTO ITS BASE
CAUSING IT TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS IMPLIES THAT MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON'S ACTIVITY WILL BE
LIMITED PRIMARILY TO AND NEAR THE SIERRA. CURRENT RADAR VERIFIES
THIS SHOWING EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF CELLS FROM NORTHERN MONO THROUGH
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT TRAINING
CELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME ADDITIONAL CELLS WILL LIKELY FORM IN EASTERN
PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES WHERE HEATING WILL BE THE STRONGER
FORCING MECHANISM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS THE JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE TONIGHT AND BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD, THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL AND EARLY MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE PLACES THE BEST
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG AND NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH
LINE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM AROUND 09Z TO 18Z. THEREFORE,
INCREASED COVERAGE TO SCATTERED BY 15Z NORTH OF THE DEMARCATION
LINE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
POSITION TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES FURTHER.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FIRST ALONG THE SIERRA THEN INTO
THE BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANVIL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY
DELAY THE GREAT BASIN THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL A LITTLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES. FORECASTED
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW SEVERE CELLS.
MODERATELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THESE CELLS. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL PRIMARILY BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE LARGEST.
HOWEVER, MORE ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AS WELL. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY, SEVERE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS CARRY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS WELL AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO INCREASE IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED BEING PICKED UP BY
FASTER FLOW ALOFT. THERE ARE SOME TIMING VARIANCES AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE NAM, EC, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE GFS WHICH IS AN OUTLIER. THE GFS SHOWS THE
FASTEST PROGRESSION OF THE EXITING TROUGH WHILE THE NAM IS THE
SLOWEST AND WETTEST. TRIMMED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF THE
SIERRA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN OUT INTO EASTERN NEVADA AND
IDAHO BY 06Z TUESDAY EVENING. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
DROPPING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF TUESDAY'S EXITING TROUGH WILL FORM
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST ACROSS IDAHO AND ACROSS MONTANA
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE CA/NV/OR BORDER WITH A DRY WESTERLY FLOW
RESULTING ACROSS NORTHERN CA/NV. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS LOW WILL
BE COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CHILLY MORNINGS IN VALLEYS.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES WITH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL AND LIGHT WINDS. FORECAST MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO HINT AT A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST BY
SUNDAY, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION,
BUT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS
NEAR AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MORE
SOUTHEAST AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR STORM PUSH OFF INTO WESTERN NV.
THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL AREA TERMINALS. SMALL HAIL, HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 30 KTS (SIERRA TAF SITES)/ 40 KTS (WESTERN NV TAF SITES) ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. NOCTURNAL STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING NORTH AND WEST OF A KTRK-KLOL LINE.

MONDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS, WITH STRONGER STORMS
EXPECTED. MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD POSSIBLY BRING ERRATIC OUTFLOW
WINDS OVER 50 KTS AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH. IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAIN
WILL CAUSE LOWERING CIGS/VIS. DJ/HOHMANN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...ELEVATED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA...

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CA COAST NORTH OF SF BAY IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THEN BEGIN TO MOVE INTO CA
MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS LOW SHOULD PRODUCE
INCREASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF DRY
LIGHTNING LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80...BUT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING
FASTER...LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS.

AS THE LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AN UPPER OF
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND INCREASED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN. THIS INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. RECENT RAINS HAVE LEFT SOME FUELS
IN THIS AREA WETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR MID AUGUST. THIS MAY LIMIT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT NEW FIRE STARTS OVER MOST OF THIS AREA.
THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH HAS SEEN LESS
RAIN OVERALL...SO THAT AREA COULD BE VULNERABLE. THE UPPER LOW'S
POSITION IS IMPORTANT AS WELL. IF IT REMAINS TOO FAR WEST MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON ALL OF
THESE FACTORS OUR CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW THAT WE WILL SEE A
SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF NEW FIRE STARTS EVEN IF LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
INCREASED. THUS WE WILL OPT TO HEADLINE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AND DRY STRIKES...BUT
WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...AND STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. THERE
WILL BE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR NEW FIRE STARTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WETTING RAINS...EVEN WITH
INCREASED STORM MOTIONS. WEISHAHN/MLF

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
306 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

CAZ071-102230-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
306 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM CROSSING HIGHWAY 49 BETWEEN SIERRAVILLE AND
LOYALTON...

AT 304 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIERRAVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH...WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 330 PM PDT INCLUDE...BECKWOURTH...
  PORTOLA...LOYALTON...SIERRAVILLE...BECKWOURTH-NERVINO AIRPORT AND
  CA 49 AT SIERRA-PLUMAS CO LINE.

DURING A THUNDERSTORM...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A
VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3981 12049 3987 12020 3959 12015 3954 12037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 166DEG 10KT 3965 12029

DJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
317 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

CAZ072-NVZ002-102315-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-
317 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...THUNDERSTORM WITH WINDS AND HAIL FOR LAKE TAHOE...

AT 306 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTH END OF LAKE TAHOE...OR NEAR
SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH...WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 415 PM PDT INCLUDE...LAKE
  TAHOE...ZEPHYR COVE...  CARNELIAN BAY...DOLLAR POINT...MEEKS
  BAY...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE AND   SUGAR PINE POINT S.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 3899 12011 3912 12018 3926 12007 3910 11994
      3896 11993 3891 12002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 142DEG 14KT 3901 12002

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
319 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

CAZ071-102300-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
319 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM SOUTH OF SUSANVILLE...

AT 312 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANTELOPE LAKE...OR 24 MILES WEST OF
HERLONG...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH PER
HOUR...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 400 PM PDT INCLUDE...FREDONYER PASS...
  SUSANVILLE...ANTELOPE LAKE...JANESVILLE...JUNCTION CA 36 AND CA 44
  AND LONE ROCK CAMPGROUND.

HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE.
TENTS AND TREES ARE UNSAFE SHELTERS DURING THUNDERSTORMS. STAY AWAY
FROM CREEKS AND STREAMS AS WATER LEVELS MAY RISE RAPIDLY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 4033 12093 4048 12067 4018 12043 4010 12063
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 143DEG 11KT 4020 12059

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
330 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

CAZ071-102330-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
330 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAGLE LAKE...

AT 324 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAGLE LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH...WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 430 PM PDT INCLUDE...EAGLE LAKE...
  SPAULDING AND JUNCTION CA 139 AND CA 513.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 4084 12103 4098 12077 4069 12058 4059 12073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 143DEG 13KT 4071 12073

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
340 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

CAZ071-102315-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
340 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD HIGHWAY 70 AND LAKE DAVIS...

AT 330 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTH OF
VINTON TO SIERRAVILLE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CHILCOOT TO SIERRAVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH PER
HOUR...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 415 PM PDT INCLUDE...BECKWOURTH...
  BLAIRSDEN...GRAEAGLE...LAKE DAVIS...PORTOLA AND VINTON.

* THE STORMS WILL CROSS HIGHWAY 70 BETWEEN BECKWOURTH AND JUST EAST
  OF PORTOLA. STRONG CROSSWINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHWAY
  ALONG WITH PONDING OF WATER WHICH COULD CAUSE A VEHICLE TO
  HYDROPLANE.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE NOW. DON'T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING POSE AN IMMEDIATE DANGER TO BOATERS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE A RAPID INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY
CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS.

&&

LAT...LON 4003 12032 3969 12009 3949 12043 3951 12045
      3960 12047 3963 12054 3983 12067
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 152DEG 11KT 3972 12023 3962 12040