Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Reno, NV

318 
WWUS85 KREV 252142
RFWREV

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
242 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

CAZ273-NVZ453-459-260300-
/O.CON.KREV.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140926T0300Z/
MONO-EASTERN ALPINE COUNTIES-WEST CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-
242 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR MONO COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL NEVADA...

* AFFECTED AREA...FIRE ZONE 273 MONO-EASTERN ALPINE COUNTIES... 
  FIRE ZONE 453 WEST CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE AND FIRE 
  ZONE 459 MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. LOCAL 
  GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS OF MONO COUNTY AND NEAR 
  WALKER LAKE.

* HUMIDITY...12 TO 20 PERCENT THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL 
  CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE FIRES TO
GROW RAPIDLY IN SIZE AND INTENSITY BEFORE FIRST RESPONDERS CAN
CONTAIN THEM. AVOID DOING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT CAN CREATE A
SPARK NEAR DRY VEGETATION...SUCH AS YARD WORK...TARGET SHOOTING...
OR CAMPFIRES. CONTINUE TO CHECK WEATHER.GOV/RENO FOR UPDATES AND
PREPAREDNESS TIPS.

&&

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

372 
WWUS85 KREV 260311
RFWREV

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
811 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

CAZ273-NVZ453-459-260415-
/O.EXP.KREV.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140926T0300Z/
MONO-EASTERN ALPINE COUNTIES-WEST CENTRAL NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE-
MINERAL AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES-
811 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY
FOR MONO COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL NEVADA...

WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HUMIDITY STARTING TO
RISE. RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME THIS EVENING.

$$

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
527 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014

UPDATED TO ADD FIRE WEATHER SECTION

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY SLOT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND MONO COUNTY THIS
MORNING. 12Z KREV RAOB STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE IT IS ALREADY RAIN IN WESTERN LASSEN
COUNTY, THE FRONT IS ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THEREFORE,
EXPECT LOW HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON
NEAR AND EAST OF A WALKER TO LOVELOCK LINE. WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED AND GUSTS 35-45 MPH, WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ZONES 273/453/459 EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY AND RUNNING THROUGH 8 PM
THIS EVENING.

THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING TO MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE RH RISES AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BLEEDS ACROSS WESTERN NV. LOCAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS 450 THROUGH MID-MORNING, BUT BY THE
TIME THE SUN REALLY STARTS TO ACT, THE MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE
LIMITING RH TO AROUND 20%. WALLMANN

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY WEST WINDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A COLD
FRONT TODAY WITH SMOKE AND HAZE SPREADING ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN
AND WESTERN NEVADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DROP OVER THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM...
WINDS ALOFT PEAK TODAY AS UPPER JET AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM CA.
EXPECT A RATHER WINDY DAY TODAY AS MIXING OCCURS AND GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. WINDS WILL GUST LOCALLY TO
40 MPH WITH CHOPPY LAKE WATERS. SMOKE AND HAZE WILL REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR ONE MORE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND PULL SMOKE FROM THE KING FIRE OVER THE CREST. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE SMOKE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE FIRE WITH
CURRENT THOUGHTS INDICATING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY STAY GOOD
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORST IN UPPER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE TAHOE BASIN. TODAY, HUMIDITY
WILL BE HIGHER THAN ON WEDNESDAY AND GIVEN THE FIRE HELD PRETTY
WELL WITH THE WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS, IT SHOULD NOT BE ANY WORSE
TODAY. PRECIPITATION BAND IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER
NORTHERN CA AND MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IT HOLDING TOGETHER
THROUGH THE MORNING SO THAT PARTS OF NORTHEAST CA MAY GET SOME
MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REACH THE TAHOE BASIN
AND SIERRA FRONT.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TRACK OF LOW AS IT
CLOSES OFF OVER THE SIERRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY WORKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE WATCHING DEFORMATION ON NORTHWEST SIDE OF
LOW WITH MODELS SUGGESTING CENTRAL-WEST NV FRI NIGHT-SAT AND THEN
PIVOTING NORTHWEST. WE BUMPED POPS UP TO SOLID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR
NOW. BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, SOME AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE
SOME DECENT RAINFALL. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN WELL BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES UNDER ANY RAIN BAND MAY NOT
GET OUT OF THE 50S. HOHMANN

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, THE UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING THROUGH SLOWER
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE EC/GFS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO CHANCE EAST
OF HIGHWAY 395 TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND, IF
IT DOES SET UP THIS FAR WEST. AFTER IT WEAKENS, WITH THE COLD POOL
OVERHEAD THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR QUITE A FEW
SHOWERS AS WELL ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA.

AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY, A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SHOULD TAKE HOLD
MONDAY BEFORE ALL THE MODELS SHOW A BACKDOOR FRONT FOR LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT, THE FRONT LOOKS DRY AND WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH. THE EC IS THE FURTHEST WEST WITH THE GFS FURTHER EAST WITH
THE SHORT WAVE AND A WEAKER FRONT. AT THIS POINT, WILL JUST COOL
OFF TUE/WED SLIGHTLY, BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER. EC
ENSEMBLE IS EVEN COLDER THAN THE EC WITH UNCERTAINTY SHOWING UP ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
EVEN FURTHER WEST/COLDER BACKDOOR FRONT. WALLMANN

AVIATION...
FIRE ACTIVITY ON THE KING FIRE APPEARS TO BE ON THE WANE ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR VIS POSSIBLE 15-20Z AROUND KTRK. OTHERWISE, OTHER
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 15Z IN
WESTERN LASSEN COUNTY WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS IN RA. AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST, RAIN BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST NORTH OF HWY 50 AFT 19Z THRU 02Z
WITH SOME MTN OBSCN.

OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN NV. SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AND BE STRONGEST SOUTHEAST OF A GERLACH-KTVL LINE WITH
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH 02Z.

EXPECT A GENERAL BREAK IN WINDS/SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLD -TSRA PSBL AFT 19Z FRIDAY. WALLMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING NVZ453-459.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     NVZ002.

CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ273.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
     CAZ072.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)