Lake Wind Advisory 39, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
838 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

.UPDATE...
RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST WEEK AND UPDATED INFORMATION ON
FUEL COMPONENTS HAVE RESULTED IN THE CANCELLATION OF THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. FUELS ARE TOO MOIST TO PROMOTE FIRE GROWTH.

HOWEVER WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN SIERRA, WHERE RIDGE GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH. GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH IN FOOTHILLS AND WIND PRONE AREAS FROM RENO-CARSON-
TAHOE NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY WILL KICK UP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE CHOPPY TO ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES, ESPECIALLY
LAKE TAHOE. BRONG

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES THROUGH
NORTHWEST NEVADA. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE INTO OREGON TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS. DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. DID INCREASE THE
EXTENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH MAINLY
TO HIGHWAY 50 FOR THIS MORNING AS MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH. A
STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DOWN TO MONO COUNTY IS POSSIBLE SINCE
THEY ARE EVIDENT ON THE 10Z RADAR SCANS. HOWEVER, THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 BY 15Z. ADDITIONALLY, INSTABILITY IS FURTHER EVIDENT
WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ALREADY FROM LYON COUNTY
EASTWARD. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER, THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE SIERRA AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN, BUT THE FOCUS OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
TODAY STARTING AROUND HIGHWAY 50 THIS MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON,
LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED BECOMING
ABSORBED BY FASTER FLOW ALOFT MOVING THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO FALLON LINE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER SOUTH
OF THIS DEMARCATION WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO CLEAR. MEANWHILE,
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO OREGON THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT EXTEND SOUTH OF OREGON, BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS.

THIS EVENING WILL BE QUESTIONABLE AS TO HOW BREEZY IT GETS ALONG
THE SIERRA FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN SINCE RH FROM 700-500MB
INCREASES WHILE RADIATIONAL COOLING INITIATES AS THE SUN SETS. I
EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SURFACE COOLING
DECOUPLES WINDS FROM THOSE ALOFT. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS QUITE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 30 MPH RANGE. THESE SPEEDS SHOULD
EASILY SATISFY LAKE WIND CRITERIA. ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS ON AREA
LAKES WITH UNSAFE BOATING CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY, WINDS SLOW BACK
TO TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYRS AS A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEGINS.
BOYD

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO CHANGES TO THE DRY AND WARM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH A
GRADUAL EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
WEST COAST AND CLOSE OFF. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF
EVENTUAL UPPER LOW WITH THE EC/GEM CLOSE TO THE CA COAST AND THE GFS
FURTHER OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE, THE EC/GEM SEEM
MORE REASONABLE, BUT WE WILL WAIT ANOTHER CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE WE
CONSIDER THEIR SOLUTIONS. WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED, IF THE LOW GETS
AS CLOSE AS THE EC/GEM ARE PROJECTING MON-TUE, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
COOLING ALOFT TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND GET A FEW STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO HOLD CLOSER TO NORMAL RATHER THAN WARM AS
STRONGLY AS THE GFS IS SUGGESTING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND SUNDAY.
HOHMANN

AVIATION...

AFTER THE RAIN MONDAY, CLEARING HAS ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN
THE SIERRA VALLEYS THIS MORNING. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
EJECTING LOW, FOG MAY LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY AS LATE AS
15-16Z.

OTHERWISE, SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN CA-NORTHWEST
NV WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WITH
THE MOST CONCENTRATED COVERAGE NORTH OF I-80. STORMS ARE GOING TO
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWARD WITH ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF A STORM AT
KCXP/KRNO THROUGH 15Z. STORMS WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST BY LATE
MORNING WITH ISOLATED STORMS CONFINED MAINLY TO EAST OF FALLON AND
NORTH OF GERLACH AND LOVELOCK IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY THE ATMOSPHERE OUT. RIDGE WINDS WILL
GUST TO 40-45KT OR MORE BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
MIXING DOWN TO MOST VALLEY FLOORS WEDNESDAY FOR A BREEZY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOHMANN

FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
WITH DRYING FROM THE SOUTHWEST EXPECTED AS UPPER LOW EJECTS TODAY.
THIS WILL PUSH MOST STORMS EAST OF LOVELOCK AND FALLON AS WELL AS
NORTH OF GERLACH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE ANY
HOLDOVERS AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING ON THE RIDGES
AND UPPER SLOPES TONIGHT AND MOST LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 95. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE OREGON-IDAHO
BORDER WITH NV. MODELS CAME IN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS TRACK
THIS MORNING AND THUS DRY SLOT AHEAD OF IT IS MORE NARROW AND
FURTHER SOUTH OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED DECENT RAINFALL THIS PAST
WEEK. HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER LOW NORTH OF A
SUSANVILLE TO GERLACH LINE AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY MAY NOT MEET
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THERE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WINDS WILL GUST
TO 30-35 MPH FROM THE SIERRA FRONT NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH REGARD TO A
SIGNIFICANT OVERLAP OF SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS AND LOW RH. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
638 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

CAZ070-071-NVZ005-121430-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-NORTHERN WASHOE
COUNTY-SURPRISE VALLEY CALIFORNIA-
638 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH INTO SURPRISE VALLEY...

AT 636 AM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EAGLEVILLE...OR 25 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CEDARVILLE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH...WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED THROUGH 730 AM PDT INCLUDE...VYA...CEDARVILLE...
  EAGLEVILLE...CA 299 AT CALIF-NEVADA LINE AND BLUE LAKE CAMPGROUND.

DURING A THUNDERSTORM...SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. HIKERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A
VEHICLE IF POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 11977 4099 11962 4096 12047 4120 12038
      4120 12008 4127 12013 4136 12014 4148 12021
      4159 12020 4161 12022 4186 12013
TIME...MOT...LOC 1337Z 182DEG 31KT 4121 11998

HOHMANN