Alert archive / North Carolina / Winter Storm Warnings in 2014

Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Raleigh, NC

March 6, 20147 counties in North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this winter storm warning at Mar 6, 2014, 2:51 PM EST for 7 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Mar 6, 2014, 9:00 PM EST. It was in force for 18 hr. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 6, 2014, 2:51 PM EST (19:51 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 6, 2014, 9:00 PM EST
Expired
Mar 7, 2014, 2:45 PM EST
In force
18 hr
Issued by
NWS Raleigh, NC

Counties Alamance County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 6, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 0.57 N Roxboro, NCHALF INCH OF SNOW ON GROUND. NOW ALL SLEET.
Mar 6, 9:35 PM ESTSNOW 0.5Surl, NCHALF INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET. CURRENTLY SNOWING.
Mar 6, 9:45 PM ESTSNOW 02 S High Point, NCTRACE OF SNOW AT WGHP STUDIOS
Mar 6, 9:45 PM ESTSNOW 0Trinity, NCTRACE OF SNOW. REPORT VIA WGHP.
Mar 6, 9:45 PM ESTSNOW 0.24 N High Point, NCREPORT VIA WGHP
Mar 6, 10:30 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0Greensboro, NC
Mar 6, 10:45 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0Hillsborough, NC
Mar 6, 10:45 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0Mebane, NC
Mar 6, 10:45 PM ESTSNOW 1.45 Nnw Roxboro, NCSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
Mar 6, 11:00 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.05Smith Reynolds Apt, NCMEASURED BY KINT ASOS
Mar 6, 11:00 PM ESTSNOW 11 N Roxboro, NCACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET.
Mar 6, 11:06 PM ESTSNOW 0.5Oak Ridge, NCSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
Mar 6, 11:15 PM ESTSNOW 0High Point, NCSNOW IS STARTING TO MIX WITH PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN.
Mar 6, 11:25 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.11 Wnw Greensboro, NC
Mar 6, 11:25 PM ESTSNOW 0.21 Wnw Greensboro, NC
Mar 6, 11:25 PM ESTSNOW 0.35 N Greensboro, NCSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION NEAR LAKE JEANETTE
Mar 6, 11:30 PM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.14 N Lewisville, NC
Mar 6, 11:30 PM ESTSNOW 0.24 N Lewisville, NC
Mar 7, 12:00 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.1Piedmont Triad Apt, NC
Mar 7, 12:00 AM ESTSNOW 0.3Piedmont Triad Apt, NC
Mar 7, 12:15 AM ESTSNOW 0.25 W Burlington, NCSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
Mar 7, 12:40 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.1Randleman, NC
Mar 7, 12:45 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.1Kernersville, NC
Mar 7, 12:55 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.121 Wnw Greensboro, NCRECENTLY BEEN SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. CURRENTLY MOSTLY SLEET.
Mar 7, 12:55 AM ESTSNOW 0.51 Wnw Greensboro, NCRECENTLY BEEN SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. CURRENTLY MOSTLY SLEET.
Mar 7, 1:00 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.2Smith Reynolds Apt, NC
Mar 7, 1:00 AM ESTSNOW 2.35 Nnw Roxboro, NCSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
Mar 7, 1:50 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 1Pleasant Garden, NC1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET
Mar 7, 1:50 AM ESTSNOW 1Pleasant Garden, NC1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET
Mar 7, 1:50 AM ESTSNOW 1Pleasant Grove, NC1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET
Mar 7, 2:25 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.155 W Winston-Salem, NCESTIMATED 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF GLAZE
Mar 7, 2:25 AM ESTSNOW 0.55 Wsw Winston-Salem, NCSNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION
Mar 7, 4:53 AM ESTSNOW 2Piedmont Triad Apt, NCSNOW AND SLEET.
Mar 7, 5:47 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.21 S Mebane, NC
Mar 7, 5:54 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.2Asheboro, NCLARGE TREE LIMBS ARE BREAKING OFF.
Mar 7, 6:05 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Asheboro, NCMEASURED ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN NORTH ASHEBORO.
Mar 7, 6:10 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Roxboro, NC1.25 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION... 1 INCH SNOW...0.25 INCHES OF ICE.
Mar 7, 6:30 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.52 W Greensboro, NCIN ADDITION TO 3 INCHES OF COMPACTED SNOW AND SLEET.
Mar 7, 6:30 AM ESTSNOW 32 W Greensboro, NCCOMPACTED SNOW AND SLEET IN HAMILTON LAKES SUBDIVISION.
Mar 7, 6:54 AM ESTSNOW 2.1Piedmont Triad Apt, NCFAA OBSERVER REPORTED 2.1 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION... PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
Mar 7, 6:54 AM ESTSNOW 2.1Piedmont Triad Apt, NCSNOW DEPTH. FAA OBSERVER REPORTED 2.1 INCHES TOTAL ACCUMULATION... PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
Mar 7, 7:00 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.41 E Elon College, NC
Mar 7, 7:00 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.55 Se Welcome, NCTREE DOWN ACROSS THE ROADWAY NEAR INTERSTATE 85 AND DAVIDSON COMMUNITY COLLEGE.
Mar 7, 7:00 AM ESTSLEET 0.51 E Elon College, NC
Mar 7, 7:10 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.253 Sw Winston-Salem, NCSNOWING HARD. POWER OUT AROUND THE HANES MALL AREA. ROADS TREACHEROUS.
Mar 7, 7:10 AM ESTSNOW 23 Sw Winston-Salem, NCSNOWING HARD. POWER OUT AROUND THE HANES MALL AREA. ROADS TREACHEROUS.
Mar 7, 7:11 AM ESTSNOW 2.77 N Greensboro, NCSNOW AND SLEET COMBINATION.
Mar 7, 7:15 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Greensboro, NCAT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF ICING. ROADS TREACHEROUS.
Mar 7, 7:18 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.5Lexington, NCAT LEAST A HALF-INCH OF GLAZING...SOME AREAS IN THE COUNTY MORE. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES. GETTING NUMEROUS CALLS OF TREES DOWN.
Mar 7, 7:30 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Asheboro, NCAT LEAST A QUARTER-INCH OF ICING...NOT QUITE A HALF-INCH. AT LEAST 80 TREES REPORTED DOWN IN THE COUNTY DUE TO COMBINATION OF ICING AND WIND.
Mar 7, 7:35 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Graham, NCAT LEAST A QUARTER-INCH OF ICING...POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF-INCH. ESTIMATED 28000 WITHOUT POWER. TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.
Mar 7, 7:40 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Hillsborough, NCAT LEAST A QUARTER-INCH OF ICE...UP TO A HALF-INCH ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY. MANY TREES DOWN DUE TO ICING AND THE WIND. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.
Mar 7, 7:45 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.255 Sw Lexington, NCROADS CLEAR...ONE QUARTER INCH ESTIMATED ON ELEVATED SURFACES. 1.71 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS... 0.38 IN THE PAST HOUR... CURRENTLY 32.5 DEGREES.
Mar 7, 7:50 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.2Roxboro, NCSLEET ACCUMULATION IS MOSTLY SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND COUNTY SINCE 5 AM.
Mar 7, 7:50 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Randleman, NC2-3 FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN
Mar 7, 7:50 AM ESTSLEET 2Roxboro, NCSLEET ACCUMULATION IS MOSTLY SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW. SEVERAL TREES DOWN AROUND COUNTY SINCE 5 AM.
Mar 7, 8:30 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Asheboro, NCREPORT OF SNAPPING TREES AND LIMBS.
Mar 7, 8:30 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.25Thomasville, NCMANY TREE LIMBS DOWN.
Mar 7, 8:45 AM ESTFREEZING RAIN 0.3Burlington, NC
Mar 7, 8:45 AM ESTSLEET 0.5Burlington, NC

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 23 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-03-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2014-03-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 9 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1717 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

380 
WWUS42 KRAH 061951
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...

.ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT EARLY
TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.

NCZ007-021>023-038-070400-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.140306T2300Z-140307T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0005.140307T0200Z-140307T1700Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE
251 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE 
  TRIAD.

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...
  FOLLOWED BY UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. 

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD START AS SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN
  7PM AND 9 PM THIS EVENING...TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING
  RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME ALL RAIN BEFORE PRECIPITATION
  ENDS LATE FRIDAY MORNING OR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
  DAMAGE TO TREES AND POTENTIALLY SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT
  AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ICING SHOULD
  GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING FRIDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL
  LIKELY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING. 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT... SLOWLY
  RISING INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE AND POSSIBLY SNOW ARE
FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NCZ008-009-025-040-073-074-070400-
/O.EXB.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.140307T0200Z-140307T1700Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...DURHAM...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD
251 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPIATION...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING NORTHWEST PARTS
  OF THE TRIANGLE AREA... 

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
  TONIGHT. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET
  ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION. 

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN 6 PM
  AND 9 PM THIS EVENING...TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
  AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME ALL RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND 
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY
  RISING INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR PATCHY ICE
ON AREA ROADS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF ICING AFTER 900
AM FRIDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

NCZ024-039-070400-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.140307T0200Z-140307T1700Z/
ORANGE-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...ASHEBORO...
ARCHDALE...TRINITY
251 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION... WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT INCLUDING NORTHWEST PARTS
  OF THE TRIANGLE AREA AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE TRIAD AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
  TONIGHT. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET
  ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATION. 

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN 6 PM
  AND 9 PM THIS EVENING...TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
  AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME ALL RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND 
  SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY
  RISING INTO THE MID 30S FRIDAY MORNING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR PATCHY ICE
ON AREA ROADS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. RAIN AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF ICING AFTER 900
AM FRIDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.


$$

PWB
5 follow-up statements
170 
WWUS42 KRAH 070231
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
931 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...

.ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST.

NCZ007-021>023-038-071100-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE
931 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING
  THE TRIAD REGION.

* HAZARD TYPES...EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH SOME
  SLEET AND A LITTLE SNOW OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY WET SNOW
  IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BY THE END OF THE STORM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
  AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF
  ICE GLAZE.

* TIMING...THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WILL
  CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
  PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO A BURST OF WET SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
  BEFORE ENDING AS ALL RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...INCLUDE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE
  DAMAGE TO TREES AND POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...WILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES
  TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY RISE FRIDAY MORNING AND REACH THE MID
  30S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE AND POSSIBLY SNOW ARE
FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NCZ010-071100-
/O.EXA.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.140307T0200Z-140307T1700Z/
WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORLINA...WARRENTON
931 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. 

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET THIS EVENING WILL
  TRANSITION TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO
  ALL RAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...OF LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
  EXPECTED WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES OF ICE GLAZE EXPECTED.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING WILL TRANSITION
  TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
  TO ALL RAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...INCLUDE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
  ICE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...WILL RANGE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
  GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT... THEN SLOWLY
  RISE INTO THE MID 30S BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR PATCHY
ICE ON AREA ROADS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF ICING AFTER
900 AM FRIDAY.

$$

NCZ008-009-024-025-039-040-073-074-071100-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...ASHEBORO...
ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD
931 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT INCLUDING
  NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND A LITTLE SLEET WILL
  BECOME MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
  OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY RAIN ON
  FRIDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN AN INCH
  NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER LOCATIONS TO A COATING OR LESS
  ELSEWHERE. FREEZING RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.20
  INCHES OF GLAZE.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS MOSTLY
  FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BECOME ALL RAIN FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN
  500 AM AND 900 AM.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO ICE ACCUMULATION. DOWNED TREE
  LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
  FRIDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...WILL RANGE BETWEEN NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
  UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT AND THEN RISE
  INTO THE MID 30S TOWARD MIDDAY FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR PATCHY
ICE ON AREA ROADS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. RAIN
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH THE CHANCE OF ICING AFTER
900 AM FRIDAY.

$$

BLAES
251 
WWUS42 KRAH 070934
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
434 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...

.ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. ADDITIONAL ICING WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

NCZ024-039-071700-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
/O.EXA.KRAH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
ORANGE-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...ASHEBORO...
ARCHDALE...TRINITY
434 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET HAS ALREADY
  FALLEN...WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE STILL POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS MOSTLY
  FREEZING RAIN AND THEN BECOME ALL RAIN AFTER 700 AM.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO ICE ACCUMULATION. DOWNED TREE
  LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NCZ007-021>023-038-071700-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE
434 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING 
  THE TRIAD REGION.

* HAZARD TYPES...EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.
  A PERIOD OF MOSTLY WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH
  ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
  MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN BY 700 AM. THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO
  A BURST OF WET SNOW BY LATE MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS ALL RAIN
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...INCLUDE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY 
  ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE 
  DAMAGE TO TREES AND POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS
AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... KEEP
AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF
AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NCZ008>010-025-040-073-074-071700-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...DURHAM...SILER CITY...
PITTSBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD
434 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT 
  INCLUDING NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AS MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND
  THEN BECOME ALL RAIN BY AROUND 700 AM.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO ICE ACCUMULATION. DOWNED TREE
  LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF FREEZING
RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR PATCHY ICE ON AREA
ROADS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

$$
791 
WWUS42 KRAH 071241
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
741 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS MORNING...

.ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. ADDITIONAL ICING WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...
WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-071700-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY
741 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT INCLUDING 
  THE TRIAD REGION.

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THIS
  MORNING...CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOW
  MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 3
  INCHES...ALONG WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE.

* TIMING...THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
  MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN BY 1000 AM. THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE
  TO A BURST OF WET SNOW BY LATE MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS ALL RAIN
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS
AND LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... KEEP
AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE
OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NCZ008>010-025-040-073-074-071700-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140307T1700Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...DURHAM...SILER CITY...
PITTSBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD
741 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL PIEDMONT
  INCLUDING NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE TRIANGLE AREA.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN THIS 
  MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THIS MORNING.
  RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH WET SNOW LATER THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED 
  ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES. BRIDGES 
  AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO ICE 
  ACCUMULATION. DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES 
  ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR PATCHY
ICE ON AREA ROADS... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

$$
258 
WWUS42 KRAH 071536
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1036 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXTENDED
UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...

.A BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. A WINTRY MIX WILL PERSIST ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR TODAY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM HIGHPOINT NORTHEAST TO
BURLINGTON AND ROXBORO LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-072100-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140307T2100Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY
1036 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
  AND ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN
  INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10 AM THIS MORNING AND 4 PM THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IN FORSYTH...GUILFORD...
  NORTHERN DAVIDSON AND NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY
  TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY NOON...WITH BURSTS OF
  HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ALAMANCE...
  ORANGE AND PERSON C0UNTIES CAN EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
  THIS MORNING...WITH BURSTS OF HEAVY WET SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH
  MID AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES ASSOCIATED
  WITH ICE AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS ROAD
  CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS
AND HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD DOWNED TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO AVOID TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE. IF YOU
MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

NCZ008>010-025-040-073-074-072100-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140307T2100Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-DURHAM-CHATHAM-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...DURHAM...SILER CITY...
PITTSBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD
1036 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...GRANVILLE...VANCE...WARREN...DURHAM...CHATHAM...
  STANLY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH NOON AND
  OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF HEAVY WET SNOW THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO ONE INCH...
  PRIMARILY IN NORTHWEST CHATHAM...NORTHERN DURHAM AND GRANVILLE
  COUNTIES.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH MID
  AFTERNOON. BURSTS OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG
  AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
  NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH DOWNED TREE LIMBS
  AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WHERE ICE ACCUMULATION OCCURRED
  EARLIER THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW MAY RESULT IN DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS... PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

$$

VINCENT
016 
WWUS42 KRAH 071945
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM HAVE BOTH BEEN CANCELLED...

...A SEPARATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING...

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-081400-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140307T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0007.140308T0200Z-140308T1400Z/
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY
245 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED... 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

AS OF 2 PM PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER STORM WARNING
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM
THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
  REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL SNOW AND ICE ON AREA ROADS.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS SKIES CLEAR FROM
  WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
  TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE
  ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND
  EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH DOWNED TREES AND
  POWER LINES AND REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL SNOW AND ICE ON AREA
  ROADS.

* TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
  SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WITH ANY VEHICLE IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT WHEN
RESIDUAL SNOW AND ICE COULD REFREEZE ON AREA ROADS. THIS INCLUDES
FOUR WHEEL DRIVE OR ALL TERRAIN VEHICLES. IF DRIVING IS ABSOLUTELY
NECESSARY...SLOW DOWN...AVOID ANY SUDDEN ACCELERATION OR BRAKING...
LEAVE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE AND EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION...
ESPECIALLY AT STOP LIGHTS AND INTERSECTIONS WHERE ACCIDENTS ARE
MORE LIKELY.

&&

$$

NCZ008-009-025-040-081400-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140307T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0007.140308T0200Z-140308T1400Z/
GRANVILLE-VANCE-DURHAM-CHATHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...DURHAM...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO
245 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS CANCELLED...

...A NEW WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IS IN EFFECT FROM
9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

AS OF 2 PM PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM
THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...GRANVILLE...VANCE...DURHAM AND CHATHAM COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
  REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL SNOW AND ICE ON AREA ROADS.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL AS SKIES CLEAR FROM
  WEST TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
  TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE
  ABOVE FREEZING BY 9 AM.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND
  EARLY SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH REFREEZING OF RESIDUAL SNOW
  AND ICE ON AREA ROADS.

* TEMPERATURES...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
  SATURDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TRAVEL WITH ANY VEHICLE IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT WHEN
RESIDUAL SNOW AND ICE COULD REFREEZE ON AREA ROADS. IF DRIVING IS
ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY...SLOW DOWN...AVOID ANY SUDDEN ACCELERATION
OR BRAKING...LEAVE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE AND EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION...ESPECIALLY AT STOP LIGHTS AND INTERSECTIONS
WHERE ACCIDENTS ARE MORE LIKELY.

&&

$$

NCZ010-073-074-072045-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-140307T2100Z/
WARREN-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ALBEMARLE...
TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD
245 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

AS OF 2 PM PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED TO ALL RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING. AS A RESULT...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

VINCENT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Mar 6, 2:15 PM EST, 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 6, 2:15 PM EST, 36 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EST THU MAR 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND CAROLINAS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...

...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN WINTER STORM CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... AND PERSON COUNTY (MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-85) TONIGHT INTO MID-DAY FRIDAY...

PRELIMINARY WARNINGS INCLUDE... FORSYTH... DAVIDSON... GUILFORD...
ALAMANCE... AND PERSON.

PRELIMINARY ADVISORIES INCLUDE... RANDOLPH... CHATHAM... ORANGE...
DURHAM... GRANVILLE... AND VANCE.

THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE (1038+ MB) WAS CENTERED OVER UPPER NY
STATE. THIS AFFECTS OF THIS HIGH EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS INTO GEORGIA. IT IS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND OF ADEQUATE
LOCATION TO DELIVER CAA/DAA... AND IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO
DELIVER CAA/DAA INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION FOR A WINTER
WEATHER EVENT. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH APPROACH FROM THE SW... WHICH WILL INDUCE A MILLER-A
TYPE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO THIS EVENING... NE ALONG THE SE US COAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. TYPICALLY... MILLER-A STORMS CARRY A NARROW TRANSITION
ZONE... FROM SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO LITTLE IMPACT CONCERNING WINTER
WEATHER. THIS MAY END UP THE CASE AGAIN WITH THIS STORM.

WHAT IS VERY INTERESTING ABOUT THIS STORM IS THAT THE STORM TYPE...
TRACK... AND CLASSICAL DAMMING PATTERN (AT LEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE
STORM) STRONGLY SUGGEST MORE SNOW THAN THE MODELS HAVE DEPICTED IN
THE DAMMING REGION. TYPICALLY... THERE WOULD BE MORE SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE NW PIEDMONT WITH A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE OF MIXED SNOW AND
RAIN... TO ALL RAIN IN THE EAST AND SOUTH. LED BY THE NAM... THERE
HAS BEEN A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ALOFT DEPICTED ALL ALONG WITH THE
STORM WHICH HAS PRECLUDED SNOW FROM ITS FORECAST.

NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEARING DOWN ON US... MODELS SEEM TO BE
COMING AROUND TO DEPICT MORE SNOW/SLEET THAN BEFORE BETWEEN 00Z/06Z
OR SO IN THE NW TONIGHT... THEN ICING BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THIS SEEMS
VERY REASONABLE AND IT MAY YET BE UNDERDONE WITH THE SNOW/SLEET
(FROZEN SIDE) OF THE STORM.

THIS CONTINUES TO BE A FORECAST BATTLE OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
AND COLD NOSES. THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES STEADFAST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRONGEST WARM NOSE ALOFT (+6 DEGREES/C) DRIVEN
BY 50-70KT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN SC/NC IN THE LAYER
BETWEEN H85 AND H75. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST THE MOST PROMINENT COLD NOSE CENTERED AT H9 FROM
CHARLOTTESVILLE TO DANVILLE THROUGH THE TRIAD... BOTTOMING OUT AT -5
DEGREES/C OVERNIGHT. THIS OCCURS AS A GOOD PART OF THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION FALLS. IT APPEARS THESE RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATED TO THE SPEED/TRACK OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS WITH THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE
SLOWEST WITH THE SYSTEM... WHILE THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE QUICKEST.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OR THE DEEP CONVECTION
THAT WAS MOVING INTO FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN GULF. GIVEN THAT THE
NAM AT 12Z CAME IN A BIT QUICKER WITH THE STORMS MOVEMENT... THE GFS
AND THE QUICKER SOLUTIONS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO. THE WARMER NAM MAY
BE RELATED TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER CUT OFF LOW WHICH
GIVES MORE TIME TO TAP WESTERN ATLANTIC AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND
DRIVE THE WARM NOSE MUCH FARTHER INLAND. THUS THE NAM EXTREME WARM
NOSE WAS NOT ACCEPTED FULLY. HOWEVER... A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ALOFT
IS ANTICIPATED AS IS DEPICTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS.

...FOR THE WARNING COUNTIES INCLUDING THE PIEDMONT TRIAD AND
ROXBORO...

PARTIALS IN THE 1000/850 AND 850/700 LAYERS ARE FORECAST BY THE
EC/GFS TO BE IN THE 1295-1300M/1545-1550M RANGE BETWEEN 00Z/09Z OVER
NW AND N PIEDMONT. THE UNIVERSAL NOMOGRAM DEPICTS THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS SNOW/SLEET IN THE TRIAD EARLY TO MID EVENING... THEN
SLOWLY CHANGING TO MIXED SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
SURFACE WET BULB FORECASTS DROP THE TEMPERATURES TO 29-30
OVERNIGHT... KEEPING THEM THERE THROUGH 12Z... THEN SLOWLY WARM TO
33 OR SO BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.50 TO 0.75 DURING
THIS CRITICAL TIME SHOULD TRANSLATE TO 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET THEN
POTENTIALLY UP TO 0.25 OF FREEZING RAIN. THE MORE SNOW/SLEET AT THE
ONSET... OBVIOUSLY THE MORE HAZARDOUS ROADS WILL BECOME. THE MORE
FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT... THE MORE THAT WOULD WEIGH ON
TREES/POWER LINES. REGARDLESS... TOGETHER THE P-TYPES OF WINTRY
MIXTURE SHOULD EQUAL WINTER STORM CRITERIA WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT IN THE WARNED COUNTIES. THE FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BECOME A SELF LIMITING PROCESS AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD RAINFALL RATES... TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 30S... AND INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS LIMIT FREEZING. A
COUPLE OF CONCERNS... LESS OF A WARM NOSE... WOULD MEAN MORE SNOW
AND SLEET THAN CURRENTLY  FORECAST. SENSIBLE WEATHER... SNOW AND SLEET
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING... CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 1-3 INCHES. TOTAL ICE
ACCRUAL UP TO 0.25 OF AN INCH. TOTAL QPF 1.00. LOWS 28-30. FREEZING
RAIN TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING... ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S.

...IN THE ADVISORY AREA INCLUDING ASHEBORO TO DURHAM TO OXFORD...

A WINTRY MIXTURE ARRIVING DURING THE EVENING... BECOMING FREEZING
RAIN MIXED SLEET OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PARTIALS IN THE
1300 TO 1305/1550-1560 RANGE... AND SURFACE WET BULBS 31-32. THE
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. TOTAL
SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 0.5. TOTAL ICE ACCRUAL  UP TO 0.1.
LOWS 30-32... WHICH SHOULD MEAN MINIMAL  IMPACTS ON AREA ROADS UNLESS
MORE SNOW/SLEET FALL AT THE ONSET DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY... RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES. TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S.

...AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...

RAIN DEVELOPING THIS EVENING... POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS SLEET. LOWS 33-
35... SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 40 OR 45 SE. RAIN FRIDAY...
HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S SE.

FINALS COMING UP IN AN HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE GULF COAST STATES TODAY WILL CLOSE
OFF THIS EVENING AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE GOMEX TO ALSO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
ON FRIDAY.  STRONG DCVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COUPLED WITH AN
40-50 EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA AFTER BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NAM
AND SREF SHOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONG BANDING BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS AN
AREA OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL FGEN SETS UP ON THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF TEH MID-LEVEL LOW...WHICH TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OR JUST
INLAND.  THE NAM GIVES THE MOST QPF WITH AS MUCH AS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HEAVIEST TONIGHT.  THE ECMWF AND GFS ARENT
QUITE AS EXTREME BUT STILL GIVE OVER AN INCH.

THE BIG QUESTION MARK IN THE FORECAST IS HOW STRONG AND HOW FAR WEST
A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY LLJ.  THE NAM
MAINTAINS AN EASTERLY FETCH LONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND
ACCORDINGLY HAS THE WARMEST TEMPS (>4C) IN THE 925-850MB LAYER.
THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE...BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND GFS...WHICH ARE PREFERRED THERMALLY...THAT A 1-3C WARM
LAYER WILL DEVELOP WAS FAR WEST AS THE TRIAD AREA.  AT THE
SURFACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST
THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  THUS...THE
MAIN SOURCE OF COLD/DRY AIR SHOULD BE LOST OVERNIGHT AND THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE MORE INFLUENTIAL IN MAINTAINING THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

ON THE BROAD SCALE....PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT AT LEAST FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT THROUGH 12-15Z FRIDAY...WITH A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO RAIN CLOSER TO THE US-1 CORRIDOR AND ALL RAIN
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.  WETBULB EFFECTS AND PRECIP RATES WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MIXING IN OF SLEET OR EVEN SNOW AT THE ONSET...AS
WELL AS WITHIN ANY BAND THAT SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN AND/OR
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT.  THIS WOULD BE MUCH MORE LIKELY WITH THE COLDER
SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE GFS WHERE A SMALLER WARM NOSE COULD BE
OVERCOME. THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS TRYING TO
DETERMINE POSSIBLE ICE AMOUNTS.  THE TOP-DOWN APPROACH WITH ABOUT
HALF OF QPF GOING TO ACCRUAL YIELDS AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ICE.  HEAVIER RAIN WOULD CUT DOWN ON AMOUNTS DUE TO RUN OFF. THERE
IS ALSO SOME CONCERN ABOUT CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND HOW THAT MAY HOLD
TEMPS UP AND LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.

FROM ALL OF THIS...WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN SOME ICE ACCRUAL OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS. WE ARE LESS CERTAIN ABOUT
AREAS ALONG US-1...WHICH MAY SEE A LIGHT GLAZE BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO ALL RAIN.  WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
DAVIDSON...FORSYTH..GUILFORD...ALAMANCE...ORANGE AND PERSON COUNTIES
STARTING AT 6PM AND GOING THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY.

PARTIAL THICKNESSES RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID-MORNING
FRIDAY...AND ANY SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD
BE GONE WITH THE LOSS OF THE PARENT HIGH. DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE
PASSING UP TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A SNOW/RAIN MIX AS THE DEFORMATION
BAND MOVES WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY (MAINLY OVER THE WEST)...BUT WITH
SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...THERE SHOULDNT BE ANY ADDITIONAL
IMPACT.  MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVING PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA....SO WILL END POPS IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.  WILL ALSO KEEPS
TEMPS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS DIP BACK DOWN TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE WEST.  LOWS 32-36.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM THURSDAY...

FOR SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT: THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY... THEN WEAK BUT WARM SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
BRINGING DRY AND STABLE LOW-MID LEVELS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A SPLIT
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS NOAM... HIGHLIGHTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHEAST/MARITIMES SUNDAY WHILE THE
POSITIVE-TILTED SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH HANGS BACK AND SLOWLY SHEARS
ACROSS AR/OK/TX INTO NRN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PASSAGE
PUSHES A SURFACE BACKDOOR FRONTAL ZONE SOUTHWARD INTO VA... BUT THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THE COOLEST AIR SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
BORDER... SO EXPECT JUST MINOR COOLING ON SUNDAY DESPITE A SURFACE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW MID CLOUDS LATE SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE SHEARING TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT... BUT NO
PRECIP... AND A RETURN TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AND CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. NEAR-NORMAL THICKNESSES BOTH DAYS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER-MID 60S. LOWS 37-43 SAT NIGHT AND 35-40 SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MON THROUGH WED: THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OUT OVER THE NW GULF EARLY IN THE
WEEK... WHILE THE LARGELY FLAT AND WNW MID LEVEL FLOW OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER RATHER TRANQUIL THROUGH TUE WITH
ONLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING AND A DRY DOWNSLOPE MAINLY WESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MON-TUE WITH TEMPS
TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL AS THICKNESSES RISE. WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE TUE NIGHT/WED AS THE GULF LOW TRACKS EASTWARD WHILE FURTHER
WEST... A TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS SE INTO THE PLAINS... WHILE
A BROAD POLAR STREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER QUEBEC/ONTARIO AND
THE GREAT LAKES REGION... PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
INTO NC. THE ECMWF TRENDS TOWARD PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS AS IT
DIGS THIS TROUGH DEEPLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ABSORBING THE
GULF TROUGH AND RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING LOW APPROACHING NC FROM
THE SW... WHILE THE GFS DAMPENS THE GULF TROUGH OVER FL WITH A
FLATTER/SHEARING TROUGH OUT WEST. DESPITE THESE MAJOR LONGWAVE
PATTERN DIFFERENCES... BOTH MODELS PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF NC WITH
INCREASED OVERRUNNING OVER NC... SO EXPECT A TREND TOWARD COOLER
TEMPS TUE NIGHT/WED AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN INCREASINGLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 20KT IN SOME AREAS THIS
MORNING..AND WE EXPECT THIS TO PICK UP EVERYWHERE DURING THE DAY
TODAY.  LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT
KFAY BY 21Z AND AT NORTHERN TERMINALS BY 00Z.  PRECIPITATION MAY
START AS A MIX OF RAIN..SLEET AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO
PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN AT KGSO/KINT AND RAIN AT KRDU/KRWI/KFAY.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE AT
KRDU...SO WHILE THE CURRENT TAF DOES NOT REFLECT FREEZING RAIN...IT
IS POSSIBLE. PRECIP MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...AND
CEILINGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.  LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN AS WELL
TONIGHT....ALTHOUGH WINDS UP TO 2K FT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED AND THE
SHIFT IN WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION IS NOT DRAMATIC (30-50 DEGREES)
THUS...NO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS MENTIONED IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ007-021>024-038-039.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...SMITH
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 6, 5:07 AM EST, 9 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
507 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

NCZ007-021>024-038-039-071015-
PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
507 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

NCZ008>011-025>028-040>043-073>077-071015-
GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-
507 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING
BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. RAIN MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED. A
LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

NCZ078-083>086-088-089-071015-
WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
507 AM EST THU MAR 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN
IN LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIANGLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES
WITH THE STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 6, 4:41 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryRAHAlamance, Chatham, Davidson, Durham, Forsyth, Granville and 8 more34 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in North Carolina, 2014Every winter storm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.