Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Raleigh, NC

575 
WWUS42 KRAH 030906
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
406 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTRY MIX WITH PRIMARILY SLEET ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...

.A SERIES OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC ON
MONDAY.

NCZ026>028-032200-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.140303T1700Z-140304T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KRAH.WS.W.0004.140303T1500Z-140304T0500Z/
FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...
RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT
406 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND A HALF
  INCH...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE. 

* LOCATIONS...THE FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
  PLAIN...INCLUDING ROXBORO... OXFORD... LOUISBURG... WARRENTON...
  ROANOKE RAPIDS... AND ROCKY MOUNT.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO PREDOMINATELY SLEET
  LATE THIS MORNING... OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN...
  PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE
  EARLY EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID
  TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
  FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SLEET BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLEET
  CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH
  SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND
  HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EVEN TREATED ROADS
  MAY BECOME COVERED DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY TO MODERATE SLEET.
  ADDITIONALLY...TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS TONIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS...
  LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ICY CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...FROM THE NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
  MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE ALL UNNECESSARY
TRAVEL. 

&&

$$

NCZ007>011-032200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0004.140303T1500Z-140304T0500Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS
406 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AROUND A HALF
  INCH...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE GLAZE.

* LOCATION...THE FAR NORTHEAST PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
  PLAIN...INCLUDING ROXBORO... OXFORD... LOUISBURG... WARRENTON...
  ROANOKE RAPIDS... AND ROCKY MOUNT.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO PREDOMINATELY SLEET
  LATE THIS MORNING... OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN...
  PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE
  EARLY EVENING.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID
  TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
  FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SLEET BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLEET
  CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH
  SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND
  HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EVEN TREATED ROADS
  MAY BECOME COVERED DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY TO MODERATE SLEET.
  ADDITIONALLY...TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS TONIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS...
  LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ICY CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...FROM THE NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
  MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
PEOPLE IN THE AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO POSTPONE ALL UNNECESSARY
TRAVEL. 

&&

$$

NCZ073>077-086-088-089-032200-
/O.EXB.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.140303T2000Z-140304T0500Z/
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
406 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH IS
  POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A TRACE OF SNOW AND ICE GLAZE. 

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE SOUTH
  CAROLINA BORDER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO PREDOMINATELY SLEET.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
  MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
  FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SLEET BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH SLEET
  CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH SOME
  SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND
  HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EVEN TREATED ROADS
  MAY BECOME COVERED DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY TO MODERATE SLEET.
  ADDITIONALLY...TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS TONIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS...
  LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ICY CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. 

&&

$$

NCZ021>025-038>043-078-032200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.140303T1700Z-140304T0500Z/
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
DURHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...
TRINITY...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...
CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...GOLDSBORO
406 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH IS
  POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A TRACE OF SNOW AND ICE GLAZE. 

* LOCATIONS...MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EXCEPT THE SOUTH
  CAROLINA BORDER COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO PREDOMINATELY SLEET.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE 
  MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A BRIEF 
  PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND THEN SLEET BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH 
  SLEET CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED WITH 
  SOME SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BECOME SLICK AND
  HAZARDOUS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EVEN TREATED ROADS
  MAY BECOME COVERED DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY TO MODERATE SLEET.
  ADDITIONALLY...TRAVEL WILL BECOME TREACHEROUS TONIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS...
  LEADING TO WIDESPREAD ICY CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW... SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. 

&&

$$

942 
WWUS42 KRAH 032100 AAA
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
400 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.

NCZ007>011-026>028-040500-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-140304T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140304T0500Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...LOUISBURG...
FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...
ROCKY MOUNT
400 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED... 
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS DOWNGRADED THE WINTER
STORM WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ALONG
  WITH A GLAZE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* LOCATIONS...AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST COASTAL
  PLAIN.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
  HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER PRECIPITATION
  HAS ENDED...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE WILL
  LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
  EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL PRECIPITATION
  ENDS BY 10 PM THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S
  THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL
  BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...AVOID SUDDEN ACCELERATIONS... 
AND LEAVE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE.

&&

$$

NCZ021>025-038>043-078-040500-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140304T0500Z/
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
DURHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...
TRINITY...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...
CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...GOLDSBORO
400 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* ACCUMULATIONS...A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET ALONG
  WITH A GLAZE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

* LOCATIONS...THE TRIAD...TRIANGLE AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
  HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL AFTER PRECIPITATION
  HAS ENDED...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE WILL
  LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
  EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL PRECIPITATION
  ENDS BY 10 PM THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL CONTINUE FALLING INTO THE MID 20S THROUGH
  THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT
  IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...AVOID SUDDEN ACCELERATIONS... 
AND LEAVE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE.

&&

$$

NCZ073>077-086-088-089-040500-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140304T0500Z/
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...
MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...
SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...
RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
400 PM EST MON MAR 3 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN A HALF INCH IS 
  POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH A TRACE OF SNOW AND ICE GLAZE.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...
  AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS ROAD CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-
  FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.
  HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER PRECIPITATION
  HAS ENDED...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE MAY BE
  NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN CAN BE
  EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL PRECIPITATION
  ENDS BY 10 PM THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 
  25 TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL FALL TO FREEZING BY 500 PM AND INTO THE
  UPPER 20S THIS EVENING. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
  THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BECAUSE PERIODS OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...AVOID SUDDEN ACCELERATIONS... 
AND LEAVE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING DISTANCE.

&&

$$

VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND CROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM SUNDAY...

...WINTRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC...

TONIGHT...MILD NIGHT IN STORE AS PERSISTENT SLY WIND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP TEMPS UP AFTER A
SPRINGLIKE AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. EVENING TEMPS
INT EH 60S WILL FALL SLOWLY INTO THE 50S.

ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NORTHERN VA-MID TN WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD LIE IN VICINITY OF THE NC/VA BORDER AT
DAYBREAK. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG FRONT COUPLED WITH
LIFT ALOFT ATTRIBUTED TO 50-70M HEIGHT FALLS AND RIGHT ENTRANCE OF
180KT JET SHOULD RESULT IN A MARKED INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTH BETWEEN 08Z-12Z.

MONDAY... CHALLENGING FORECAST DUE TO TIMING/DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION.

S/WE LIFTING E-NE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ENTER THE TN VALLEY MONDAY MORNING THEN SCOOT EAST INTO THE
CAROLINAS BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID TO ENHANCE SLY
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG/INTO THE SFC BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL LIFT SUPPLIED BY A TANDEM OF UPPER LEVELS CROSSING THE
REGION. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING.

PER THERMAL PROFILES/PARTIAL THICKNESSES...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
LIQUID THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND PARTIAL
THICKNESSES/NOMOGRAM SUGGEST PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINATELY
SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. THIS TRANSITION ZONES WILL SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...OCCURRING IN THE RDU AND TRIAD
REGION AROUND MID DAY OR NO LATER THAN EARLY AFTERNOON...AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND SANDHILLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FAR
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE
SLEET OR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX THE LONGEST. BASED ON PRECIP
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH AND A WATER EQUIVALENT
RATIO OF 3:1....COULD SEE UPWARDS OF A HALF OR A LITTLE MORE OF
SLEET ACROSS THE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE DUSTING
(HALF LESS OR LESS) OF SNOW. HALF INCH OF SLEET MEETS WINTER STORM
CRITERIA SO WILL UPGRADE WATCH TO WARNING AND INCLUDE HALIFAX IN THE
WARNING. FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE TRIAD AND TRIANGLE...EXPECT
MOSTLY SLEET WITH A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN THE BEGINNING (AND FREEZING
RAIN NEAR THE END). BELIEVE ENOUGH WINTRY PRECIP WILL OCCUR TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY AS ROADS...ESPECIALLY UNTREATED BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...WILL LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. FINALLY...WHILE
SOME SLEET EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH...SLEET WILL BE PREDOMINATELY MIXED
WITH RAIN WHICH SHOULD CUT DOWN ON AMOUNTS. THUS WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION AT THIS TIME.

SOME THINGS TO CONSIDER: WARM AFTERNOON HAS HEATED THE TOP SOIL. IF
PRECIP INTENSITY LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MOST OF SLEET WILL
MELT SHORTLY AFTER IMPACT. ALSO...IF COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT AS
STRONG AS ADVERTISED...THIS WILL LEAD TO A LONGER PERIOD OF
RAIN/SLEET MIXED WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER SLEET TOTALS.
FINALLY...MID LEVELS OF TEH ATMOSPHERE DRY OUT IN TEH AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20-21Z
WITH HARDLY ANY MOISTURE IN THE FAVORED ICE NUCLEATION ZONE. IF TEH
COLD NOSE IS NOT AS STRONG AS PROJECTED...THEN COULD A 2-4 HOURS
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE VERSUS SLEET WITH ICE ACCRUAL AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK-MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH
AND AROUND NOON-EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. COULD SEE TEMPS
PLUMMET 10-13 DEGREES IN THE FIRST 60-90 MINUTES AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIND CHILLS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH SW-NE AS
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...EXPECT MAINLY PATCHY AND LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AFTER SUNSET
WITH SKIES CLEARING WEST-EAST BY LATE EVENING. FRIGID TEMPS IN THE
TEENS WILL FREEZE ANY MOISTURE ON THE ROADS. BASED ON WHAT FALLS
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR
ICY PATCHES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 122 PM SUNDAY...

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SE ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING).

VERY COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG (1030+ MB) SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY MORNING... SLOWLY
MODIFYING WITH THE INCREASING MARCH SUN ANGLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WE WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A CATEGORY OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT ANTICIPATING SOME SLEET/ICE TO BE ON THE GROUND... AND THE
FACT THAT THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NNE DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CAA INTO THE REGION FROM VA. EXPECT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE GFS
(MAV) COLDER NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER NAM (MET) MOS GUIDANCE... GIVEN
THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EXPECTED ARCTIC AIR MASS TO
THE NORTH... AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW/ICE COVER FROM RDU NORTHWARD
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS COMING FROM. HIGHS 35-45 N TO S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC TUESDAY NIGHT... MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO. THIS
IS WHERE MODELS FORECAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OUT ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY
OVER THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WOULD REACH AS FAR WEST AND NORTH AS FAYETTEVILLE AND
GOLDSBORO GIVEN THAT THE DRY AIR RIDGE EXTENDING FROM PA/MD SOUTH
INTO NC/SC SHOULD REMAIN STRONGLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER... RECENT MODEL
TRENDS ARE INDICATING THAT THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS POSSIBLY FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER... THE P-TYPE IS ALSO LOW
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THAT THE GUIDANCE SURFACE WET BULB FORECASTS TAKE
THE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AREAS IN
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A WARM
NOSE ALOFT AND 1000/850 AND 850/700 MB PARTIALS BY 12Z/WED IN THE
1310-1315M AND 1550-1555M RANGE SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT
FOR LIQUID... WITH THE WET BULB 32 DEGREE LINE GENERALLY FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE NORTHERN SANDHILLS AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN. BOTTOM
LINE... THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF SOME VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO
GOLDSBORO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN
CLEARING SKIES AND BRIGHTER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 122 PM SUNDAY...

...SOME WET SNOW CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS FAR EAST AND SOUTH
AS OUR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE (STRONG DRY AIR RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM PA SOUTH INTO NC/SC. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN WHICH CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
PROGRESSION OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
UNITED STATES. THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL SNOW/HEAVY RAIN
IMPACTS MID TO LATE WEEK IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MAY CLOSE OFF
ALOFT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND REACHES
THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A MILLER TYPE-A
SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO THEN MOVE NE NEAR THE SC/NC COAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN AND THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO
SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM AND RESULTANT SLOWER SURFACE CYCLONE PROGRESSION UP THE SC/NC
COAST... WHILE THE GFS AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM (LESS SO IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE).

THE FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS WIDE WITH THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED FAVORING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
BOTTOM LINE... IT IS UNCLEAR YET AS TO THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE
COLD AIR DAMMING FOR THIS EVENT. TAKING THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
APPROACH... THERE APPEARS TO BE A STRONG ENOUGH HIGH PRESSURE (1025+
MB) AND IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION (NEW ENGLAND) TO DELIVER CAD INTO
OUR REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPIATION. HOWEVER... TRENDS
SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE MAY RETREAT DURING THE EVENT LED BY THE NEXT
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE KICKER APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
IF THIS OCCURS... THE SNOW THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE BLUE
RIDGE AND APPALACHIANS... WITH ONLY A LOW THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW OUT
INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT. RAIN ELSEWHERE. THIS ABOVE SCENARIO IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE MILLER "A" TYPE STORM EXPECTED WHICH TYPICALLY
BRINGS A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE FROM SNOW TO RAIN.

GIVEN THE FAVORED MILLER "A" PATTERN OF CYCLOGENESIS...WITH STRONG
CLASSICAL CAD - PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE EVENT - THERE SHOULD BE A
NARROW TRANSITION ZONE FROM RAIN TO WET SNOW...WITH THE LATTER...OR
AT LEAST A MIX...FAVORED OVER THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED
NORTHWESTERN PIEDMONT BEFORE THE PARENT HIGH WEAKENS/RETREATS BY
FRI. THIS VERY MOISTURE-LADEN SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING WITH
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL... AND HEAVY WET SNOW POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE).

THEREFORE... CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE FOR A SOAKING COLD
RAIN EVENT... WITH A MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE MAIN P-TYPE BEING
RAIN (WET SNOW LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS)... AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW INTO OUR NW PIEDMONT BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY GIVEN ALL THE PLAYERS THAT WILL DETERMINE THE P-TYPE...
AMOUNTS... AND TIMING.

FOR THIS FORECAST... WE WILL TREND A BIT WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN TRENDS... AND CUT BACK A BIT ON THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE
PIEDMONT... LIMITING TO MOSTLY THE NW (TRIAD REGION) LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM CUTS OFF LIKE SOME
MODELS INDICATE FRIDAY... IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR MAY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SNOW ON THE NW SIDE OF THE H85/H7 LOW TRACK. HOWEVER...
WITH ALL THE RAIN EXPECTED... IT WOULD TAKE IMPRESSIVE RATES FRIDAY
TO GET SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN LATE THU
AND THU NIGHT.

THIS ENTIRE WET SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED
BY A MODIFYING PACIFIC AIR MASS THIS WEEKEND... HIGHS RETURN TO NEAR
60.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 110 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. A BREEZY SW WIND WILL GUST AT TIMES BETWEEN
20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET. A SUSTAINED
SLY WIND 5-8KTS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.

AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL BRING
DRAMATIC CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIE NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER EARLY MONDAY MORNING THEN MARCH SOUTHWARD...EXITING OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. BLUSTERY NLY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A ONE-TWO HOUR WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLD AIR SURGE IS INITIALLY
SHALLOW/SURFACE BASED. DURING THIS BRIEF WINDOW...SFC WINDS WILL BE
N-NE 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 25KTS WHILE WINDS AT 2K FT WILL BE SW 20-
25KTS. PER EXPECTED FRONTAL TIMING...EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS AT
KINT...KGSO...KRDU...AND KRWI BETWEEN 13Z-15Z...AND AT KFAY BETWEEN
18Z-20Z.

A BAND OF RAIN WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
ONCE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...EXPECT THE RAIN TO CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY
SLEET WITH A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL MOSTLY
LIKELY EFFECT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING-MID DAY...
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CHANGEOVER IN THE KFAY
VICINITY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IFR/LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO RAIN AND CEILINGS FROM MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH..AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST-SW MONDAY
EVENING AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
MOST LOCATIONS BY 03Z TUESDAY.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT OUR REGION THIS
WEEK. THESE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION AND
ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NCZ021>028-038>043-078.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ007>011.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
531 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-031045-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
531 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. LINGERING MOISTURE ON
UNTREATED AREA ROADS WILL FREEZE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
FALL TO...OR SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN...10 DEGREES.

NCZ011-021>028-038>041-043-031045-
HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-WILSON-
531 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA MONDAY. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...BEFORE ENDING EARLY
MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
LIKELY...AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

NCZ007>010-031045-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-
531 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

IN ADDITION...WIND CHILLS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.