Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Chill Advisories in 2014
Wind Chill Advisory 2, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this wind chill advisory at Jan 23, 2014, 3:09 PM EST for 31 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Jan 24, 2014, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 23, 2014, 3:09 PM EST (20:09 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jan 24, 2014, 12:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Jan 24, 2014, 9:00 AM EST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
All 31 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1861 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 98 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 48 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
145 WWUS42 KRAH 232009 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 309 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT... .THE COMBINATION OF UNUSUALLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING. NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-241000- /O.NEW.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.140124T0500Z-140124T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON 309 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -5 TO 0 DEGREES RANGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. && $$
3 follow-up statements
454 WWUS42 KRAH 240219 AAA WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 919 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... .THE COMBINATION OF UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND -5 DEGREES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-241030- /O.EXB.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.140124T0800Z-140124T1400Z/ JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES... PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN... ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD... ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 919 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY. * WIND CHILL VALUES...WILL FALL THROUGH THE TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AFTER 300 AM...BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 0 DEGREES BY SUNRISE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY MID MORNING AND ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILL READINGS AT OR BELOW 0 DEGREES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE TO DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS AND TO WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. && $$ NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-241030- /O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.140124T0500Z-140124T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON 919 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... * WIND CHILL VALUES...WILL FALL THROUGH THE TEENS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0 AND -5 DEGREES AT SUNRISE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY MID MORNING AND ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILL READINGS AT OR BELOW 0 DEGREES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE TO DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS AND TO WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ VINCENT
563 WWUS42 KRAH 240909 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 409 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING... .THE COMBINATION OF UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND -5 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING. NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-241400- /O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140124T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON 409 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WIND CHILL VALUES...EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RANGE BETWEEN 0 AND 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BY MID MORNING AND ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILL READINGS AT OR BELOW 0 DEGREES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE TO DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS AND TO WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. $$ NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-241400- /O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140124T1400Z/ JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES... PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN... ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD... ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 409 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WIND CHILL VALUES...EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE AROUND ZERO...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO BY MID MORNING AND ABOVE 10 DEGREES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS COMBINE TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. WIND CHILL READINGS AT OR BELOW 0 DEGREES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE TO DRESS IN MULTIPLE LAYERS AND TO WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. && $$
964 WWUS42 KRAH 241357 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 857 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE... .THE WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE ZERO...HOWEVER THE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-241500- /O.EXP.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140124T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR... HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM... CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON... NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY... SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...WILSON 857 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TODAY AND TONIGHT... HOWEVER WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. $$ NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-241500- /O.EXP.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-140124T1400Z/ JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND- SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON... ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES... PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN... ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON... ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD... ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 857 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TODAY AND TONIGHT... HOWEVER WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind chill advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind chill advisory went out at Jan 23, 3:02 PM EST, 7 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 23, 3:02 PM EST, 7 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014
SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF CLIPPER WAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NEEDED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A WEAK
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...TIGHTENING
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE TROUGH...BRINGING
WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR. THE STRONG CAA AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT
MAY RESULT IN LOWS RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 9 DEGREES NORTHWEST TO 15
DEGREES SOUTHEAST. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH WINDS IN THE 8
TO 12 KT RANGE WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF -2 DEGREES TO 5
DEGREES FOR FEW HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 PM THURSDAY...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING INTO THE CAROLINAS
FROM THE WEST AS IT MIGRATES SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS...THE STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE OUT
OF THE UPPER 20S. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PUSHING THE RIDGE OFF TO THE
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A GOOD 3 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TONIGHT...MAINLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES. THE RESULTANT WIND CHILL
VALUES...WHILE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA. WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT
AND THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THAT TIME...THE BEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE THEN...PROBABLY DURING THE
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY THICKEN WITH
LOWERING BASES EARLY SAT AS A FAST-MOVING BROAD WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSS THE REGION. WE
SHOULD SEE DECENT LIFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE... AND THE
DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS SUBSTANTIAL... HOWEVER THE LIFT IS ALL ROOTED
WELL ALOFT WITH NEUTRAL OR SINKING MOTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH
FAIRLY DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB... AS THE GULF REMAINS SHUT OFF. WILL
HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY BUT WITH POPS OF 14% OR LOWER FOR
NOW. BRISK SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL BRING
IN STEADILY WARMING BUT STILL BELOW-NORMAL THICKNESSES... SUGGESTING
HIGHS OF 43-48. A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE TROUGH SAT
NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS EARLY. LOWS 18-26.
THEN PASSAGE OF A 925-850 MB WARM FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
WILL DRAW IN EVEN MILDER AIR... SUCH THAT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ACTUALLY CLIMB UP CLOSE TO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE DAY. BUT THIS
WARMING WILL NOT LIKELY BE REALIZED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY... SO
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE NOMINALLY WARMER AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH. WE'RE
LIKELY TO SEE A FEW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS... BUT OVERALL SKIES SHOULD
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS MILD HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS BY TO OUR
SOUTH. HIGHS 44-51. EXPECT SKIES TO TREND FROM FAIR TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT DIVING TOWARD AND THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...
ATTENDING A POCKET OF STRONG VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WSW
LOW LEVEL FLOW... EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS (AT LEAST COMPARED TO
RECENTLY)... WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT OF 28-35.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE TRANSITION BACK TO FRIGID AIR
BEGINS MON AFTERNOON AS THE POLAR LOW OVER NRN QUEBEC REASSERTS
ITSELF. MODELS INDICATE PASSAGE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WIND SHIFT NW
TO SE INTO CENTRAL NC BY MIDDAY... THEN THE COLDER AIR SHOULD FILTER
PAST THE MOUNTAINS INTO NC DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SOME CLOUDINESS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LITTLE ELSE... DUE TO
A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT... AND AT THIS TIME
WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES OUT FOR MON. HIGHS FROM THE LOW-MID 40S NW
TO LOW 50S SE STILL LOOK REASONABLE. POLAR AIR POURS INTO THE AREA
MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A LARGE STRONG YUKON-SOURCED 1045+ MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM SASKATCHEWAN SE TOWARD NC. THE POLAR FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF AND FL WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY ROLLING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE CENTRAL/ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS/ECMWF DISAGREE ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR. THE
GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE GA COAST TUE MORNING
WITH THE LOW TRACKING NE THEN AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TUE
NIGHT... BUT DPVA AND INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE 850 MB FRONT KICKS
BACK TO THE NW INTO THE CAROLINAS MANAGES TO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE ERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF
DEPICTS A MORE VIGOROUS MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX TRACKING NE THROUGH
NC TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED... WITH A SURFACE LOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN THE GFS... AND BRINGS CONSIDERABLE BANDED PRECIP BACK
OVER NC ON THE NW SIDE OF THE LOW. IN EITHER CASE... ANY PRECIP
WOULD ALMOST ASSUREDLY BE SNOW... WITH 1000-850 MB AND 850-700 MB
PARTIAL THICKNESSES BOTH EXTREMELY COLD (UNDER 1270 M AND 1530 M
RESPECTIVELY). WITH QUESTIONS REMAINING REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE LIFT-PRODUCING VORTICITY
MAX.... WILL EASE INTO A POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT BY PLACING A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA TUE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... BUT
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS AT OR
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THE COLD AIR MASS HOLDS IN PLACE ACROSS NC
WED SO EXPECT CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30-35 RANGE.
DRY WEATHER LIKELY WED NIGHT/THU WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS... ALTHOUGH THE RETREAT OF THE POLAR LOW UP INTO FAR NE CANADA
TOWARD GREENLAND AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A SLOWLY MODERATING AIR MASS HEADING INTO LATE WEEK. -GIH
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY...
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY HAVE TAKEN LONGER THAN EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE...ESPECIALLY AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS. THE GUSTS SHOULD DIE
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT
BREEZY...MAINLY OUT OF THE NW AND VEERING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD: A SERIES OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL SWING THROUGH THE
AREA...ONE LATE SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON MONDAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE FRONTAL
PASSAGES...OTHERWISE EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTINESS COINCIDENT TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD RECORD
GSO LOW LOW MAX
01/23 6 1936 28 1954
01/24 4 1963 25 1948
01/25 7 1963 23 1940
RDU
01/23 8 1977 27 1970
01/24 7 1963 27 1963
01/25 8 1963 28 2013
FAY
01/23 9 1970 30 1970
01/24 13 2005 28 1970
01/25 13 1963 30 2013
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-
043.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...KC/CBL
CLIMATE...RAHHazardous weather outlook, Jan 23, 1:31 PM EST, 1 hour 38 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 131 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-241845- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 131 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DJF
Nearby
Wind Chill Advisories in North Carolina, 2014Every wind chill advisory in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.