Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN DRIFT TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR
AREA...ESP ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MID/HI CLOUD BAND THAT HAS
BEEN POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CAROLINAS SO FAR
TODAY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT BEST INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED EAST OF THE TRIANGLE...AND A SMALL POCKET OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT WHERE A BREAK THE CLOUDS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES...CLOUDS HAVE SO FAR
KEPT TEMPS AND INSTABILITY DOWN. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT DCAPE IS
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FROM KFAY SOUTH AND EAST...SO IF A DEEP TSTM
CELL WITH AN ELEVATED CORE CAN DEVELOP IN THAT AREA...THE CHANCE FOR
A DAMAGING WIND GUST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ELSEWHERE...THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT
CERTAINLY THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.

THIS EVENING...CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR
RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS (CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT) WILL MOVE SE AND ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE REST OF OUR CWA A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE WINDING DOWN BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THIS BATCH OF STORMS...ML CAPE DURING THAT
TIME WILL BE ON THE DOWNTURN AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  AS SUCH...THE MAIN
IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO WILL BE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER
70S SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS
A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE NE ACROSS OUR AREA IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY TO OUR NW WILL DROP SOUTH AND MERGE WITH THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH...PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INITIATION.
NOTED THAT GUIDANCE SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH PWAT (AROUND 2 INCHES)
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...TRENDING LOWER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
TRIAD. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...25KT
OR LESS. THUS...WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO...THE MAIN IMPACTS MAY INSTEAD BE
HEAVY RAIN INVOF OF THE BELT OF HIGH PWAT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY OF THE SLOWER CELLS OR
LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS. GIVEN THIS MOISTURE
PROFILE...LOOK FOR THE BEST COVERAGE AND THUS HIGHEST POPS TO BE
EAST OF THE TRIAD. SIMILAR TO TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD COVEAGE...WHICH MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR CWA TOMORROW
COMPARED TO TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

FOR FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT: THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS FRI... BEFORE SWEEPING OVERHEAD
FRI NIGHT AND TO OUR EAST SAT. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL ROUGHLY
FOLLOW THIS PACE AS WELL... SETTLING OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS BY
SAT MORNING BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING. THE EASTERN HALF OF NC WILL
REMAIN WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE FRI FOR MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS... WHILE A DRIER COLUMN...
SLIGHT RISE IN HEIGHTS ALOFT... AND DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE WEST WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THERE... A PATTERN SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE GFS SHOWS MUCAPE
PEAKING AT 1500-2000 J/KG BUT SUBPAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF JUST AROUND
20 KTS OR SO... SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAKLY FORCED AND SLOW
MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTER WITH SUPPRESSED SEVERITY BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING CELLS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE PW HOLDING NEAR
2.0 INCHES EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THE SHEAR AXIS BROADENS AND WEAKENS
FURTHER ON SAT WITH MINOR RISES IN HEIGHTS ALOFT. ANY TRACE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH IS TOUGH TO DETECT ON THE MODEL OUTPUT WITH A FAIRLY
UNIFORM LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S AND SE. MODELS SHOW CENTRAL
AND WRN NC WITHIN A RELATIVE PW MINIMUM... BETWEEN THE 1.5+ INCH
VALUES OVER COASTAL NC AND ERN SC... AND THE HIGHER VALUES PUSHING
INTO THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN MCS
CROSSING THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN END OF THE GREAT LAKES SAT/SAT
NIGHT. BUT ANY AMOUNT OF ATLANTIC-SOURCE LOW LEVEL INFLOW COMBINED
WITH HEATING COULD GENERATE DISORGANIZED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PULSE
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE POPS ON THE LOW END... 20-30%
ORIENTED NW TO SE RESPECTIVELY... SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THICKNESSSES BOTH FRI AND SAT STAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL... WITH A
BIT MORE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED SAT THAN FRI... SO WILL HOLD ONTO
HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

FOR SUN-WED: DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY WEAK SUNDAY WITH
ONLY A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH EVIDENT THROUGH THE PIEDMONT... HOWEVER
WE WILL START TO SEE PW VALUES RECOVER BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS... SUGGESTING A TREND BACK TO MORE SEASONALLY TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON PULSE CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY. AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG MID LEVEL VORTEX (MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AS LOW S 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL) AS LOW AS WILL WOBBLE EASTWARD ACROSS SRN
ONTARIO AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES SUN-TUE THEN INTO QUEBEC WED... AND
THIS BROAD TROUGHING OVER ERN NOAM WILL MEAN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR NC... WITH SW LOW LEVEL AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT... AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
FOSTERING BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION. WILL PLACE GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED ON EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING MON-TUE... WITH
PERHAPS A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGHER POPS WED TO LEVERAGE THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE FRONT MIGHT DROP SE INTO THE CWA AND
PUSH THE BETTER MOISTURE INTO SRN/ERN NC. SEE NOTHING TO INDICATE A
MAJOR DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPS... AS GREATER-THAN-USUAL
CLOUD COVER WITH HEATING EACH DAY WILL MODULATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-
NORMAL THICKNESSES... SO WILL STICK WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S... AND DAILY LOWS NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THE REST
OF TODAY. THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ONE AREA OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
STORM IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN (INVOF OF KRWI AND
KFAY) WHERE DCAPE VALUES ARE AOA 1000J/KG. WHILE THE PROBABILITY IS
LOW...ANY OF THE DEEPER STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF BUT STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS WITH DIRECTIONS OF A
HIGHLY VARIABLE NATURE. BEYOND THIS PARTICULAR CONCERN...ANY OF THE
TSTMS IN OUR CWA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH REDUCED VSBY AND LOCALLY LOW CIGS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...THE
RISK FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED REDUCED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH ASSOC IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT AND A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVES INTO THE AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN HALF. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS MINIMAL COVERAGE
OF DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND REDUCED FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NP
NEAR TERM...NP
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...HARTFIELD
AVIATION...NP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
426 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>041-043-100930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
WILSON-
426 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...LEADING
TO MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ042-073>078-083>086-088-089-100930-
JOHNSTON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
426 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...LEADING
TO MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
410 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NCZ040-075-076-092100-
LEE-CHATHAM-MOORE-
410 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF LEE...SOUTHWESTERN
CHATHAM AND NORTHERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SANFORD...SOUTHERN PINES...CARTHAGE...PINEHURST...GOLDSTON...
WHISPERING PINES...BROADWAY...ROBBINS...VASS AND CAMERON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 7974 3552 7961 3551 7956 3556 7955
      3574 7930 3553 7897 3541 7908 3518 7940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 227DEG 34KT 3543 7936

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
415 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NCZ011-028-092115-
HALIFAX-EDGECOMBE-
415 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX
AND CENTRAL EDGECOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCOTLAND NECK...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
TARBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TARBORO...SCOTLAND NECK...PRINCEVILLE...WHITAKERS...HOBGOOD...
CONETOE...SPEED...LEGGETT...TILLERY AND BATTLEBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3600 7741 3590 7734 3582 7735
      3583 7739 3581 7742 3580 7747 3577 7750
      3604 7776 3613 7771 3632 7744 3629 7741
      3626 7741 3624 7738 3621 7738 3617 7731
      3616 7727 3612 7724 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 230DEG 31KT 3607 7747

NP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
431 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

NCZ008>011-026-027-041-092145-
HALIFAX-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-GRANVILLE-FRANKLIN-NASH-
431 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX...SOUTHERN VANCE...NORTHEASTERN WAKE...WARREN...
SOUTHERN GRANVILLE...FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN NASH COUNTIES UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISED
AREA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE RAPIDS...HENDERSON...CREEDMOOR...LOUISBURG...WARRENTON...
HALIFAX...WAKE FOREST...BUTNER...FRANKLINTON AND NORLINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7790 3650 7782 3637 7757 3634 7759
      3630 7755 3632 7747 3579 7842 3613 7879
      3654 7802 3654 7792
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 232DEG 16KT 3611 7850

NP

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