Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETREAT
WESTWARD TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...HELPING TO
PROPEL A WEAK BACK-DOOR SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM THURSDAY...

THE RISK FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR SUB-SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MOVEMENT INTO A
RESIDUALLY-MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL NC...OF A BACK-
DOOR COLD FRONT AND ATTENDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER VA THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG ARE APT TO DEVELOP WHEN/WHERE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS DIMINISHES LATE
TONIGHT...OWING TO 1) WET SOIL FROM EARLIER RAIN...2) LIMITED LOW
LEVEL DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE LEAD FRONT OVER VA (THE MORE
APPRECIABLE AIR MASS CHANGE RESIDED BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT OVER
PA)...AND 3) POOLING OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONT/TROUGH
AXIS. LOWS AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM WEDNESDAY...

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS PROGGED BY THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS TO
HAVE MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL NC BY THE START OF THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60 WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL NC DURING DAY WITH THE FRONT STALLING NEAR
THE SC BORDER WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THERE IS A MARGINAL THREAT OF
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. HIGHS FRIDAY
SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAN TO
THE MID 90S NEAR THE SC BORDER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE AROUND
70. -BLAES
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM THURSDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THAT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING THE COLD FRONT AXIS MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LINGERS NEAR
CAROLINA COAST. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL WORK
INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NC BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WITH
A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS NEAR THE SC BORDER AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY GOOD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ARC ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. AS DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO CENTRAL NC AND SOME RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVERHEAD...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ADVERTISE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION FOR THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE MID OR UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TO AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST WIT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM DURING THE WORKED WEEK WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS AROUND 70. -BLAES

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM THURSDAY...

24-HR TAF PERIOD: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...WILL LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
(THOUGH APPROX 04Z)...DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET. THERE MAY BE A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IN THE NORTHWEST...
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LEAVE MENTION IN
AT THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE AFT/EVE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY... HOWEVER WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF TAF AT THIS TIME. -KC

LOOKING AHEAD: EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION
(DURING THE AFT/EVE HOURS) EACH DAY IN ASSOC/W A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
OF NW FLOW ALOFT AND A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE AREA. -CBL

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL/MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...KC/CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
909 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-210115-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
909 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DIME TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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